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Bayesian non-parametric signal extraction for Gaussian time series

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  • Macaro, Christian

Abstract

We consider the problem of unobserved components in time series from a Bayesian non-parametric perspective. The identification conditions are treated as unknown and analyzed in a probabilistic framework. In particular, informative prior distributions force the spectral decomposition to be in an identifiable region. Then, the likelihood function adapts the prior decompositions to the data. A full Bayesian analysis of unobserved components will be presented for financial high frequency data. Particularly, a three component model (long-term, intra-daily and short-term) will be analyzed to emphasize the importance and the potential of this work when dealing with the Value-at-Risk analysis. A second astronomical application will show how to deal with multiple periodicities.

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  • Macaro, Christian, 2010. "Bayesian non-parametric signal extraction for Gaussian time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 381-395, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:157:y:2010:i:2:p:381-395
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Macaro & Raquel Prado, 2014. "Spectral Decompositions of Multiple Time Series: A Bayesian Non-parametric Approach," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 105-129, January.

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