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Semiparametric Bayesian Inference for Time Series with Mixed Spectra

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  • C. K. Carter
  • R. Kohn

Abstract

A Bayesian analysis is presented of a time series which is the sum of a stationary component with a smooth spectral density and a deterministic component consisting of a linear combination of a trend and periodic terms. The periodic terms may have known or unknown frequencies. The advantage of our approach is that different features of the data—such as the regression parameters, the spectral density, unknown frequencies and missing observations—are combined in a hierarchical Bayesian framework and estimated simultaneously. A Bayesian test to detect deterministic components in the data is also constructed. By using an asymptotic approximation to the likelihood, the computation is carried out efficiently using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method in O(Mn) operations, where nis the sample size and Mis the number of iterations. We show empirically that our approach works well on real and simulated samples.

Suggested Citation

  • C. K. Carter & R. Kohn, 1997. "Semiparametric Bayesian Inference for Time Series with Mixed Spectra," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 59(1), pages 255-268.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssb:v:59:y:1997:i:1:p:255-268
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9868.00067
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    1. Patricio Maturana-Russel & Renate Meyer, 2021. "Bayesian spectral density estimation using P-splines with quantile-based knot placement," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 2055-2077, September.
    2. Christian Macaro & Raquel Prado, 2014. "Spectral Decompositions of Multiple Time Series: A Bayesian Non-parametric Approach," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 105-129, January.
    3. McCoy, E. J. & Stephens, D. A., 2004. "Bayesian time series analysis of periodic behaviour and spectral structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 713-730.
    4. Cadonna, Annalisa & Kottas, Athanasios & Prado, Raquel, 2017. "Bayesian mixture modeling for spectral density estimation," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 189-195.
    5. Charles S. Bos, 2011. "Relating Stochastic Volatility Estimation Methods," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-049/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-44, January.
    7. Ulrich K. Müller & James H. Stock, 2011. "Forecasts in a Slightly Misspecified Finite Order VAR Model," Working Papers 2011-4, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    8. Macaro, Christian, 2010. "Bayesian non-parametric signal extraction for Gaussian time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 381-395, August.
    9. Ravazzolo Francesco & Vahey Shaun P., 2014. "Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 367-381, September.
    10. Roberto Iannaccone & Edoardo Otranto, 2003. "Signal Extraction in Continuous Time and the Generalized Hodrick- Prescott Filter," Econometrics 0311002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Tanujit Dey & Kun Ho Kim & Chae Young Lim, 2018. "Bayesian time series regression with nonparametric modeling of autocorrelation," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 1715-1731, December.
    12. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandra Luati, 2013. "The Exponential Model for the Spectrum of a Time Series: Extensions and Applications," CREATES Research Papers 2013-34, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Meier, Alexander & Kirch, Claudia & Meyer, Renate, 2020. "Bayesian nonparametric analysis of multivariate time series: A matrix Gamma Process approach," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    14. Neil Shephard & Michael K Pitt, 1995. "Likelihood analysis of non-Gaussian parameter driven models," Economics Papers 15 & 108., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    15. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2008. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 66-77, January.
    16. Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Fruhwirth, Rudolf, 2007. "Auxiliary mixture sampling with applications to logistic models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3509-3528, April.
    17. E. J. G Odolphin & S. E. Johnson, 2003. "Decomposition of Time Series Dynamic Linear Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 513-527, September.
    18. Ori Rosen & Sally Wood & David S. Stoffer, 2012. "AdaptSPEC: Adaptive Spectral Estimation for Nonstationary Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(500), pages 1575-1589, December.

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