Suitable habitat evaluation and ecological security pattern optimization for the ecological restoration of Giant Panda habitat based on nonstationary factors and MCR model

Enhancing the regional connectivity, coordination, and integrity of Giant Panda National Park can protect giant pandas. The construction and optimization of the ecological security pattern in giant panda habitat can effectively promote the information exchange among giant panda populations of Giant Panda National Park in Ya'an area. Based on climate change, geographic location, human activities, and other factors, the Maxent model was used to evaluate the non-stability of giant panda habitat suitability, and the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model was used to construct the ecological security pattern. Based on the gravity model and relevant image verification analysis, we proposed an optimal solution to the ecological problem of giant panda corridor groups. From our research, good habitat suitability of giant pandas was detected, with a high degree of local fragmentation. The areas of the most suitable habitat, the more suitable habitat, and the generally suitability were 1970.12 km2, 2346.51 km2, and 1902.37 km2, respectively. Suitable habitat was located between 2100 m and 3400 m in elevation, with a less than 30° slope. The average temperature of the coldest season in the suitable area was around - 2 ∼ 2 °C, the precipitation of the wettest month was between 140 ∼ 160 mm, and the mean diurnal range was between 9 ∼ 14 °C. Valuation results for nonstationary factors beyond these ranges will not fall within the Habitat Suitability Zone. In total, 13 ecological sources, 13 ecological corridors, 6 ecological barrier points, and 4 ecological pinch points were identified and divided into 4 ecological corridor groups to locate and repair ecological problems, achieving the purpose of building and optimizing ecological security patterns. The integrated technical frame work proposed in this work, which combined the suitability evaluation, ecological safety pattern construction and ecological restoration, considered the nonstationary variations in factors and the actual species ranges. It also emphasized the importance of the relationship between the species’ suitability and the ecological security pattern. The results of this work have important implications for examining the habitat modifications, gene exchange between giant panda populations, and habitat conservation of giant pandas.