IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v14y2024i10p1830-d1500960.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of Potential Suitability Areas for Ephedra sinica in the Five Northwestern Provinces of China Under Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Yibo Xu

    (Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China
    School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China)

  • Xiaohuang Liu

    (Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China
    Integrated Natural Resources Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100055, China)

  • Lianrong Zhao

    (School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China)

  • Jiufen Liu

    (Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China
    Integrated Natural Resources Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100055, China)

  • Xiaofeng Zhao

    (Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China
    Integrated Natural Resources Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100055, China)

  • Hongyu Li

    (Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China
    Integrated Natural Resources Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100055, China)

  • Chao Wang

    (Integrated Natural Resources Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100055, China)

  • Honghui Zhao

    (Integrated Natural Resources Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100055, China)

  • Ran Wang

    (Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China
    Integrated Natural Resources Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100055, China)

  • Xinping Luo

    (Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China
    Integrated Natural Resources Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100055, China)

  • Liyuan Xing

    (Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China
    Integrated Natural Resources Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100055, China)

Abstract

Ephedra sinica ( E. sinica ) holds significant economic and medicinal importance and is predominantly found in arid areas. Due to the limitations of environmental variables, growth habits, and human activities, the production and suitability areas of E. sinica have significantly decreased, especially in the five northwestern provinces of China. In this study, 212 distribution points of E. sinica and 40 environmental variables were obtained to project the habitat suitability of E. sinica under different emission scenarios in the future. It identified precipitation in the wettest month, monthly mean of the diurnal temperature difference, and solar radiation intensity in April and July as the primary environmental factors affecting the suitability of E. sinica in the region. The areas of high, medium, and low suitability in the region cover 103,000 km 2 , 376,500 km 2 , and 486,800 km 2 . Under future scenarios, the suitability areas from 2021 to 2100 will decrease by 20%, with high suitability areas decreasing by 65% to 85% particularly. With comprehensive environmental variables, the suitability areas of E. sinica from 2021 to 2100 are projected, filling the gap in the projection of E. sinica suitability areas in the five northwestern provinces of China over long time period. The suitability areas show a significant decreasing trend. This research provides valuable insights into the suitability areas and crucial environmental factors, offering theoretical support for future protection and management efforts for E. sinica .

Suggested Citation

  • Yibo Xu & Xiaohuang Liu & Lianrong Zhao & Jiufen Liu & Xiaofeng Zhao & Hongyu Li & Chao Wang & Honghui Zhao & Ran Wang & Xinping Luo & Liyuan Xing, 2024. "Prediction of Potential Suitability Areas for Ephedra sinica in the Five Northwestern Provinces of China Under Climate Change," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:14:y:2024:i:10:p:1830-:d:1500960
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/14/10/1830/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/14/10/1830/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fois, Mauro & Cuena-Lombraña, Alba & Fenu, Giuseppe & Bacchetta, Gianluigi, 2018. "Using species distribution models at local scale to guide the search of poorly known species: Review, methodological issues and future directions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 385(C), pages 124-132.
    2. Farhana Bibi & Azizur Rahman, 2023. "An Overview of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Their Mitigation Strategies," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-15, July.
    3. Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2024. "Uncertainty and climate change: The IPCC approach vs decision theory," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. K. J. Feeley & C. Bravo-Avila & B. Fadrique & T. M. Perez & D. Zuleta, 2020. "Publisher Correction: Climate-driven changes in the composition of New World plant communities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(11), pages 1062-1062, November.
    5. LaRue, Michelle A. & Nielsen, Clayton K., 2008. "Modelling potential dispersal corridors for cougars in midwestern North America using least-cost path methods," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 212(3), pages 372-381.
    6. Yuncheng Zhao & Mingyue Zhao & Lei Zhang & Chunyi Wang & Yinlong Xu, 2021. "Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea ( Camellia sinensis L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, November.
    7. K. J. Feeley & C. Bravo-Avila & B. Fadrique & T. M. Perez & D. Zuleta, 2020. "Climate-driven changes in the composition of New World plant communities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(10), pages 965-970, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yingxiao Zhang & Allison L. Steiner, 2022. "Projected climate-driven changes in pollen emission season length and magnitude over the continental United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Stephan Kambach & Francesco Maria Sabatini & Fabio Attorre & Idoia Biurrun & Gerhard Boenisch & Gianmaria Bonari & Andraž Čarni & Maria Laura Carranza & Alessandro Chiarucci & Milan Chytrý & Jürgen De, 2023. "Climate-trait relationships exhibit strong habitat specificity in plant communities across Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Imran Khaliq & Christian Rixen & Florian Zellweger & Catherine H. Graham & Martin M. Gossner & Ian R. McFadden & Laura Antão & Jakob Brodersen & Shyamolina Ghosh & Francesco Pomati & Ole Seehausen & T, 2024. "Warming underpins community turnover in temperate freshwater and terrestrial communities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Ruijie Huang & Chenchen Wu & Hao Lu & Xuemei Wu & Baoyu Zhao, 2024. "Predicted Distribution of Locoweed Oxytropis glabra in China under Climate Change," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-13, May.
    5. Patricio Vladimir Méndez-Zambrano & Luis Patricio Tierra Pérez & Rogelio Estalin Ureta Valdez & Ángel Patricio Flores Orozco, 2023. "Technological Innovations for Agricultural Production from an Environmental Perspective: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-15, November.
    6. Nichols, J.M. & Spendelow, J.A. & Nichols, J.D., 2017. "Using Optimal Transport Theory to Estimate Transition Probabilities in Metapopulation Dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 359(C), pages 311-319.
    7. Saudi-Yulieth Enciso-Alfaro & Víctor Amor-Esteban & Tânia-Cristina Azevedo & Isabel-María García-Sánchez, 2023. "Multivariate Analysis of Clean Technologies in Agricultural and Livestock Companies in Castilla y León," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-25, November.
    8. Shaokun Zhou & Yuhong Song & Yijiao Li & Jing Wang & Lan Zhang, 2022. "Construction of Ecological Security Pattern for Plateau Lake Based on MSPA–MCR Model: A Case Study of Dianchi Lake Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-17, November.
    9. Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis & Alexandros Papanikolaou & Ioannis P. Kokkoris & Arne Strid & Panayotis Dimopoulos & Maria Panitsa, 2022. "Climate Change Impacts and Extinction Risk Assessment of Nepeta Representatives (Lamiaceae) in Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, April.
    10. An, Yi & Liu, Shiliang & Sun, Yongxiu & Shi, Fangning & Liu, Yixuan & Beazley, Robert, 2021. "Determining the importance of core areas in the alpine shrub-meadow gradient zone of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    11. LaRue, Michelle A. & Nielsen, Clayton K., 2016. "Population viability of recolonizing cougars in midwestern North America," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 321(C), pages 121-129.
    12. Biljana Savić & Alevtina Evgrafova & Cenk Donmez & Filip Vasić & Michael Glemnitz & Carsten Paul, 2021. "Assessing the Role of Kettle Holes for Providing and Connecting Amphibian Habitats in Agricultural Landscapes," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-22, June.
    13. Stricker, Heather K. & Gehring, Thomas M. & Donner, Deahn & Petroelje, Tyler, 2019. "Multi-scale habitat selection model assessing potential gray wolf den habitat and dispersal corridors in Michigan, USA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 397(C), pages 84-94.
    14. Antonio J. Mendoza-Fernández & Fabián Martínez-Hernández & Esteban Salmerón-Sánchez & Francisco J. Pérez-García & Blas Teruel & María E. Merlo & Juan F. Mota, 2020. "The Relict Ecosystem of Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea in an Agricultural Landscape: Past, Present and Future Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, December.
    15. Christelle Yèba Akpo & Cristina Bianca Pocol & Maria-Georgeta Moldovan & Denis Acclassato Houensou, 2024. "Land Access Modes and Agricultural Productivity in Benin," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-20, October.
    16. Miriam Kizeková & Radoslava Kanianska & Ľubica Jančová & Jozef Čunderlík & Zuzana Dugátová, 2024. "Carbon and Nitrogen Stocks in Agricultural Soils under Different Natural Conditions and Management in Slovakia," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-17, February.
    17. An, Yi & Liu, Shiliang & Sun, Yongxiu & Shi, Fangning & Zhao, Shuang, 2020. "Negative effects of farmland expansion on multi-species landscape connectivity in a tropical region in Southwest China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    18. Dawei Liu & Chunping Xie & Chi Yung Jim & Yanjun Liu & Senlin Hou, 2023. "Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Alien Invasive Alligator Gar Atractosteus spatula in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-10, April.
    19. Somodi, Imelda & Bede-Fazekas, Ákos & Botta-Dukát, Zoltán & Molnár, Zsolt, 2024. "Confidence and consistency in discrimination: A new family of evaluation metrics for potential distribution models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 491(C).
    20. He, Hui & Yu, Xiangke & Yu, Hui & Ma, Zhigang & Luo, Yong & Liu, Tao & Rong, Ziwei & Xu, Jinhong & Chen, Dianpeng & Li, Pengshang & Yuan, Fuxin & Zhao, Yongtao, 2024. "Suitable habitat evaluation and ecological security pattern optimization for the ecological restoration of Giant Panda habitat based on nonstationary factors and MCR model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 494(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:14:y:2024:i:10:p:1830-:d:1500960. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.