IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v274y2014icp12-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the impact of climate change on the habitat distribution of the giant panda in the Qinling Mountains of China

Author

Listed:
  • Fan, Juntao
  • Li, Junsheng
  • Xia, Rui
  • Hu, Lile
  • Wu, Xiaopu
  • Li, Guo

Abstract

Climate change threatens global ecosystems and the maintenance of biodiversity via its impacts on the survival of individual species and the preservation of their ecological functions. The effects of climate change are particularly evident in the mountainous areas of southwestern China that support the last remaining populations of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). However, very few studies to date have assessed the likely impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of giant panda habitat. In this paper, we developed a mechanistic model that uses climatic variables (rather than biotic variables) to (i) examine how variation in landscape scale climate influences the spatial distribution of panda habitat in China's Qinling Mountains, and (ii) evaluate how the distribution and extent of panda habitat will change in the future under forecast climate change scenarios. We found that there was substantial variation in temperature throughout the study area that correlated with variation in altitude. Under climate change scenarios, the future climate in this region (during the period 2070–2100) would be far warmer and wetter than the current climate (for the period 1990–2007). Our model results revealed that this predicted climate change could reduce the extent of a suitable habitat for giant pandas by up to 62% (under IPCC SRES A2 scenarios; and 37% under IPCC SRES B2 scenarios). We also showed that as a result of this predicted climate change, the minimum elevation of panda habitat would rise by 500m. Accordingly, our model showed that on the basis of predicted climate change, a new suitable giant panda habitat would likely become available in areas further north of their current range (at higher latitudes, in the northwest part of the study region). Finally, and most importantly, we showed that the established network of nature reserves within this study region does not adequately protect the current distribution of suitable panda habitat, nor will it protect suitable panda habitat in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Juntao & Li, Junsheng & Xia, Rui & Hu, Lile & Wu, Xiaopu & Li, Guo, 2014. "Assessing the impact of climate change on the habitat distribution of the giant panda in the Qinling Mountains of China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 274(C), pages 12-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:274:y:2014:i:c:p:12-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.11.023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380013005711
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.11.023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mao-Ning Tuanmu & Andrés Viña & Julie A. Winkler & Yu Li & Weihua Xu & Zhiyun Ouyang & Jianguo Liu, 2013. "Climate-change impacts on understorey bamboo species and giant pandas in China’s Qinling Mountains," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(3), pages 249-253, March.
    2. Liu, Xuehua & Cheng, Xiangnan & Skidmore, Andrew K., 2011. "Potential solar radiation pattern in relation to the monthly distribution of giant pandas in Foping Nature Reserve, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 645-652.
    3. An, Li & Lupi, Frank & Liu, Jianguo & Linderman, Marc A. & Huang, Jinyan, 2002. "Modeling the choice to switch from fuelwood to electricity: Implications for giant panda habitat conservation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 445-457, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gong, Minghao & Fan, Zhiyong & Wang, Junyan & Liu, Gang & Lin, Chen, 2017. "Delineating the ecological conservation redline based on the persistence of key species: Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) inhabiting the Qinling Mountains," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 56-62.
    2. Jing Zhen & Xinyuan Wang & Qingkai Meng & Jingwei Song & Ying Liao & Bo Xiang & Huadong Guo & Chuansheng Liu & Ruixia Yang & Lei Luo, 2018. "Fine-Scale Evaluation of Giant Panda Habitats and Countermeasures against the Future Impacts of Climate Change and Human Disturbance (2015–2050): A Case Study in Ya’an, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Chengchao & Yang, Yusheng & Zhang, Yaoqi, 2012. "Rural household livelihood change, fuelwood substitution, and hilly ecosystem restoration: Evidence from China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2475-2482.
    2. John Eakins & Bernadette Power & Gordon Sirr, 2024. "An Analysis of Households Choice of Solid Fuels as a Primary and Supplementary Heating Fuel," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(2), pages 91-109, March.
    3. Giefer, Madeline M. & An, Li & Chen, Xiaodong, 2021. "Normative, livelihood, and demographic influences on enrollment in a payment for ecosystem services program," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. Christophe Muller & Huijie Yan, 2018. "Household Fuel Use in Rural China," AMSE Working Papers 1808, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    5. Musiliu O. Oseni, 2017. "Self-Generation and Households' Willingness to Pay for Reliable Electricity Service in Nigeria," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    6. Frank Adusah-Poku & Samuel Adams & Kwame Adjei-Mantey, 2023. "Does the gender of the household head affect household energy choice in Ghana? An empirical analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 6049-6070, July.
    7. Behera, Bhagirath & Rahut, Dil Bahadur & Jeetendra, Aryal & Ali, Akhter, 2015. "Household collection and use of biomass energy sources in South Asia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 468-480.
    8. Muller, Christophe & Yan, Huijie, 2018. "Household fuel use in developing countries: Review of theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 429-439.
    9. Li Huang & Heng Wu & Mi Zhou, 2022. "Implications of Non-Farm Work for Clean Energy Adoption: Evidence from Rural China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-19, December.
    10. Li Yang & Guanghua Qiao, 2023. "Grassland Ecological Compensation, Income Level and Policy Satisfaction: An Empirical Analysis Based on a Survey of Herders in Ecological Protection Redline Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-17, January.
    11. Lupi, Frank & Kaplowitz, Michael D. & Hoehn, John P., 2003. "A Split-Sample Test Of Experimental Designs For Stated Choice Models Of Environmental Valuation," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22073, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Irina Klytchnikova & Michael Lokshin, 2009. "Measuring Welfare Gains from Better Quality Infrastructure," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 1(2), pages 87-109, December.
    13. Sheng, Jichuan & Qiu, Hong & Zhang, Sanfeng, 2019. "Opportunity cost, income structure, and energy structure for landholders participating in payments for ecosystem services: Evidence from Wolong National Nature Reserve, China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 230-238.
    14. repec:eid:wpaper:26/09 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. López-Carr, David & Davis, Jason & Jankowska, Marta M. & Grant, Laura & López-Carr, Anna Carla & Clark, Matthew, 2012. "Space versus place in complex human–natural systems: Spatial and multi-level models of tropical land use and cover change (LUCC) in Guatemala," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 64-75.
    16. Wang, Menghan & Liu, Zhong & Xu, Aiyan & Yang, Dan, 2022. "Fuel choice for rural Tibetan households: Impacts of access to credit," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    17. Abdullah, Sabah & Mariel, Petr, 2010. "Choice experiment study on the willingness to pay to improve electricity services," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4570-4581, August.
    18. Wei Liu & Christine A Vogt & Junyan Luo & Guangming He & Kenneth A Frank & Jianguo Liu, 2012. "Drivers and Socioeconomic Impacts of Tourism Participation in Protected Areas," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(4), pages 1-13, April.
    19. Ly, Alpha & Chakir, Raja & Creti, Anna, 2024. "Electrification or deforestation? Evidence from household practices in Côte d’Ivoire," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    20. Couture, Stéphane & Garcia, Serge & Reynaud, Arnaud, 2012. "Household energy choices and fuelwood consumption: An econometric approach using French data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1972-1981.
    21. Jing Zhen & Xinyuan Wang & Qingkai Meng & Jingwei Song & Ying Liao & Bo Xiang & Huadong Guo & Chuansheng Liu & Ruixia Yang & Lei Luo, 2018. "Fine-Scale Evaluation of Giant Panda Habitats and Countermeasures against the Future Impacts of Climate Change and Human Disturbance (2015–2050): A Case Study in Ya’an, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:274:y:2014:i:c:p:12-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.