IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v222y2011i9p1614-1625.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The MONICA model: Testing predictability for crop growth, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Nendel, C.
  • Berg, M.
  • Kersebaum, K.C.
  • Mirschel, W.
  • Specka, X.
  • Wegehenkel, M.
  • Wenkel, K.O.
  • Wieland, R.

Abstract

A fundamentally revised version of the HERMES agro-ecosystem model, released under the name of MONICA, was calibrated and tested to predict crop growth, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics for various experimental crop rotations across Germany, including major cereals, sugar beet and maize. The calibration procedure also included crops grown experimentally under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. The calibrated MONICA simulations yielded a median normalised mean absolute error (nMAE) of 0.20 across all observed target variables (n=42) and a median Willmott's Index of Agreement (d) of 0.91 (median modelling efficiency (ME): 0.75). Although the crop biomass, habitus and soil moisture variables were all within an acceptable range, the model often underperformed for variables related to nitrogen. Uncalibrated MONICA simulations yielded a median nMAE of 0.27 across all observed target variables (n=85) and a median d of 0.76 (median ME: 0.30), also showing predominantly acceptable results for the crop biomass, habitus and soil moisture variables. Based on the convincing performance of the model under uncalibrated conditions, MONICA can be regarded as a suitable simulation model for use in regional applications. Furthermore, its ability to reproduce the observed crop growth results in free-air carbon enrichment experiments makes it suited to predict agro-ecosystem behaviour under expected future climate conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Nendel, C. & Berg, M. & Kersebaum, K.C. & Mirschel, W. & Specka, X. & Wegehenkel, M. & Wenkel, K.O. & Wieland, R., 2011. "The MONICA model: Testing predictability for crop growth, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(9), pages 1614-1625.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:222:y:2011:i:9:p:1614-1625
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.02.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380011000998
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.02.018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kattarkandi Byjesh & Soora Kumar & Pramod Aggarwal, 2010. "Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 413-431, June.
    2. A. Iglesias & M. Minguez, 1997. "Modelling crop-climate interactions in Spain: Vulnerability and adaptation of different agricultural systems to climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 273-288, September.
    3. Marco Moriondo & Marco Bindi & Zbigniew Kundzewicz & M. Szwed & A. Chorynski & P. Matczak & M. Radziejewski & D. McEvoy & Anita Wreford, 2010. "Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 657-679, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jin, Xiuliang & Li, Zhenhai & Feng, Haikuan & Ren, Zhibin & Li, Shaokun, 2020. "Estimation of maize yield by assimilating biomass and canopy cover derived from hyperspectral data into the AquaCrop model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    2. Carauta, M. & Guzman-Bustamante, I. & Meurer, K. & Hampf, A. & Troost, C. & Rodrigues, R. & Berger, T., 2018. "Assessing the full distribution of greenhouse gas emissions from crop, livestock and commercial forestry plantations in Brazil's Southern Amazon," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277118, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Carauta, Marcelo & Troost, Christian & Guzman-Bustamante, Ivan & Hampf, Anna & Libera, Affonso & Meurer, Katharina & Bönecke, Eric & Franko, Uwe & Ribeiro Rodrigues, Renato de Aragão & Berger, Thomas, 2021. "Climate-related land use policies in Brazil: How much has been achieved with economic incentives in agriculture?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. Carauta, Marcelo & Parussis, Julia & Hampf, Anna & Libera, Affonso & Berger, Thomas, 2021. "No more double cropping in Mato Grosso, Brazil? Evaluating the potential impact of climate change on the profitability of farm systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    5. Tadiello, Tommaso & Gabbrielli, Mara & Botta, Marco & Acutis, Marco & Bechini, Luca & Ragaglini, Giorgio & Fiorini, Andrea & Tabaglio, Vincenzo & Perego, Alessia, 2023. "A new module to simulate surface crop residue decomposition: Description and sensitivity analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 480(C).
    6. Yin, Xiaogang & Kersebaum, Kurt Christian & Kollas, Chris & Manevski, Kiril & Baby, Sanmohan & Beaudoin, Nicolas & Öztürk, Isik & Gaiser, Thomas & Wu, Lianhai & Hoffmann, Munir & Charfeddine, Monia & , 2017. "Performance of process-based models for simulation of grain N in crop rotations across Europe," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 63-77.
    7. Martin Schmidt & Claas Nendel & Roger Funk & Matthew G. E. Mitchell & Gunnar Lischeid, 2019. "Modeling Yields Response to Shading in the Field-to-Forest Transition Zones in Heterogeneous Landscapes," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, January.
    8. Hampf, Anna C. & Carauta, Marcelo & Latynskiy, Evgeny & Libera, Affonso A.D. & Monteiro, Leonardo & Sentelhas, Paulo & Troost, Christian & Berger, Thomas & Nendel, Claas, 2018. "The biophysical and socio-economic dimension of yield gaps in the southern Amazon – A bio-economic modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Xenia Specka & Claas Nendel & Ralf Wieland, 2019. "Temporal Sensitivity Analysis of the MONICA Model: Application of Two Global Approaches to Analyze the Dynamics of Parameter Sensitivity," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-29, February.
    10. Joseph MacPherson & Carsten Paul & Katharina Helming, 2020. "Linking Ecosystem Services and the SDGs to Farm-Level Assessment Tools and Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-19, August.
    11. Sandra Ledermüller & Marco Lorenz & Joachim Brunotte & Norbert Fröba, 2018. "A Multi-Data Approach for Spatial Risk Assessment of Topsoil Compaction on Arable Sites," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-22, August.
    12. Yuexia Sun & Shuai Zhang & Fulu Tao & Rashad Aboelenein & Alia Amer, 2022. "Improving Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting Based on Multi-Source Data and Machine Learning," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-16, April.
    13. Michael Kuhwald & Katja Dörnhöfer & Natascha Oppelt & Rainer Duttmann, 2018. "Spatially Explicit Soil Compaction Risk Assessment of Arable Soils at Regional Scale: The SaSCiA-Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-29, May.
    14. Tenreiro, Tomás R. & García-Vila, Margarita & Gómez, José A. & Jimenez-Berni, José A. & Fereres, Elías, 2020. "Water modelling approaches and opportunities to simulate spatial water variations at crop field level," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    15. Hampf, Anna C. & Stella, Tommaso & Berg-Mohnicke, Michael & Kawohl, Tobias & Kilian, Markus & Nendel, Claas, 2020. "Future yields of double-cropping systems in the Southern Amazon, Brazil, under climate change and technological development," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    16. Pasquel, Daniel & Cammarano, Davide & Roux, Sébastien & Castrignanò, Annamaria & Tisseyre, Bruno & Rinaldi, Michele & Troccoli, Antonio & Taylor, James A., 2023. "Downscaling the APSIM crop model for simulation at the within-field scale," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 2020. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899, May.
    2. Yingchun Li & Wei Xiong & Wei Hu & Pam Berry & Hui Ju & Erda Lin & Wen Wang & Kuo Li & Jie Pan, 2015. "Integrated assessment of China’s agricultural vulnerability to climate change: a multi-indicator approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 355-366, February.
    3. Sudarshan Chalise & Dr Athula Naranpanawa, 2016. "Climate change adaptation in agriculture: A general equilibrium analysis of land re-allocation in Nepal," EcoMod2016 9272, EcoMod.
    4. Kizildeniz, T. & Irigoyen, J.J & Pascual, I. & Morales, F., 2018. "Simulating the impact of climate change (elevated CO2 and temperature, and water deficit) on the growth of red and white Tempranillo grapevine in three consecutive growing seasons (2013–2015)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 220-230.
    5. Garcia, Maria & Viladrich-Grau, Montserrat, 2009. "The economic relevance of climate variables in agriculture: The case of Spain," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 9(02), pages 1-32.
    6. Gomez, Sonia Quiroga & Iglesias, Ana, 2005. "Crop Production Functions for Analysis of Global Change Impacts in Spain," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24565, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. V. Saravanakumar, "undated". "Impact of Climate Change on Yield of Major Food Crops in Tamil Nadu, India," Working papers 91, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    8. Yang, Chenyao & Fraga, Helder & van Ieperen, Wim & Santos, João A., 2020. "Assessing the impacts of recent-past climatic constraints on potential wheat yield and adaptation options under Mediterranean climate in southern Portugal," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    9. Olivia Koland & Birgit Bednar-Friedl & Erwin Schmid & Martin Schönhart, 2012. "Climate change impacts on and adaptation measures for agriculture in Austria in 2020 and 2050: Linking bottom-up and top-down models," EcoMod2012 4315, EcoMod.
    10. Bernal-Escobar, Adriana & Cuervo-Sánchez, Rafael & Pinzon-Trujillo, Gonzalo & Maldonado, Jorge Higinio, 2013. "Glacier Melting and Retreat: Understanding the Perception of Agricultural Households That Face the Challenges of Climate Change," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149005, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. repec:aer:wpaper:342 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Crispin Cunya, Marianella & Ponce Oliva, Roberto Daniel & Rendon Schneir, Eric & Arias Montevechio, Esteban Eduardo, 2023. "Modelamiento hidro-económico de los efectos del cambio climático y política en la agricultura andina," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 23(01), June.
    13. Nathalie Rousset & René Arrus, 2004. "Economie de l'adaptation au changement climatique etagriculture dans le Bassin Méditerranéen," Post-Print halshs-00006235, HAL.
    14. E. Eyshi Rezaei & T. Gaiser & S. Siebert & F. Ewert, 2015. "Adaptation of crop production to climate change by crop substitution," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(7), pages 1155-1174, October.
    15. Julian Ramirez-Villegas & Mike Salazar & Andy Jarvis & Carlos Navarro-Racines, 2012. "A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 611-628, December.
    16. Qiu-Hui Pan & Yu-Xing Li & Ming-Feng He & Xiao-Jia Mu, 2006. "Infection Model Based On Hamming Distance With Age," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(11), pages 1691-1699.
    17. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 0. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899.
    18. Stehfest, Elke & Heistermann, Maik & Priess, Joerg A. & Ojima, Dennis S. & Alcamo, Joseph, 2007. "Simulation of global crop production with the ecosystem model DayCent," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 203-219.
    19. Villani, Lorenzo & Castelli, Giulio & Yimer, Estifanos Addisu & Nkwasa, Albert & Penna, Daniele & van Griensven, Ann & Bresci, Elena, 2024. "Exploring adaptive capacities in Mediterranean agriculture: Insights from Central Italy's Ombrone catchment," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    20. Altvater, Susanne & de Block, Debora & Bouwma, Irene & Dworak, Thomas & Frelih-Larsen, Ana & Görlach, Benjamin & Hermeling, Claudia & Klostermann, Judith & König, Martin & Leitner, Markus & Marinova, , 2012. "Adaptation measures in the EU: Policies, costs, and economic assessment. "Climate Proofing" of key EU policies," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 110558, June.
    21. Ramiro Ahumada-Cervantes & Gilberto Velázquez-Angulo & Hugo B. Rodríguez-Gallegos & Edith Flores-Tavizón & Rubén Félix-Gastélum & Jaime Romero-González & Alfredo Granados-Olivas, 2017. "An indicator tool for assessing local vulnerability to climate change in the Mexican agricultural sector," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 137-152, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:222:y:2011:i:9:p:1614-1625. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.