IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/snd/wpaper/91.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impact of Climate Change on Yield of Major Food Crops in Tamil Nadu, India

Author

Listed:
  • V. Saravanakumar

Abstract

This study uses panel data for 39 years and 13 districts to estimate the yield sensitivity of major food crops to climate change in the South Indian state of Tamil Nadu. We first estimate the marginal impacts of climate variables on crop yield using Panel Corrected Standard Error (PCSE) models. These estimates are then used to identify yield sensitivities in the future based on projected climate variables from theRegional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). Empirical results show a quadratic (inverted U shaped) relationship between rice and sorghum yield and climate variables. As temperature and rainfall increase, crop yield initially increases up to a threshold level, and then decreases. Following the RegCM4 projections that observed warming and anomalies in rainfall will continue, this could result in a significant loss in crop productivity. Projections suggest that there may be a 10 percent decline in rice yield and 9 percent decline in sorghum yield by the end of the 21st century relative to average yields during 1971-2009. This indicates a need for new seed varieties that are less sensitive to rainfall and temperature thresholds, and, adaptation practices such as adjustments in sowing time.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Saravanakumar, "undated". "Impact of Climate Change on Yield of Major Food Crops in Tamil Nadu, India," Working papers 91, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:snd:wpaper:91
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sandeeonline.org/uploads/documents/publication/1043_PUB_Working_Paper_91_Saravana.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kim, Man-Keun & Pang, Arwin, 2009. "Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield and Production Risk," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 32(2), pages 1-13, June.
    2. Beck, Nathaniel & Katz, Jonathan N., 1995. "What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(3), pages 634-647, September.
    3. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    4. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    5. Shreekant Gupta & Partha Sen & Suchita Srinivasan, 2014. "Impact Of Climate Change On The Indian Economy: Evidence From Food Grain Yields," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-29.
    6. Barnwal, Prabhat & Kotani, Koji, 2013. "Climatic impacts across agricultural crop yield distributions: An application of quantile regression on rice crops in Andhra Pradesh, India," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 95-109.
    7. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, March.
    8. Reed W. Robert & Webb Rachel, 2010. "The PCSE Estimator is Good -- Just Not As Good As You Think," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, September.
    9. Jamie Sanderson & Sardar M. N. Islam, 2007. "Climate Change and Economic Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-59012-0, December.
    10. Xiujian Chen & Shu Lin & W. Robert Reed, 2005. "Another Look At What To Do With Time-Series Cross-Section Data," Econometrics 0506004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bruce A. McCarl & Xavier Villavicencio & Ximing Wu, 2008. "Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1241-1247.
    12. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economic Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    13. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane, 2009. "Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya: Impacts and adaptations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 1915-1924, May.
    14. Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar, 2003. "Climate, Water, and Agriculture," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(3), pages 328-341.
    15. Murat Isik & Stephen Devadoss, 2006. "An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 835-844.
    16. Dinar, A. & Mendelsohn, R. & Evenson, R. & Parikh, J. & Sanghi, A. & Kumar, K. & McKinsey, J. & Lonergen, S., 1998. "Measuring the Impact of CLimate Change on Indian Agriculture," Papers 402, World Bank - Technical Papers.
    17. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane & Karanja, Fredrick K, 2007. "The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4334, The World Bank.
    18. Atanu Saha & Arthur Havenner & Hovav Talpaz, 1997. "Stochastic production function estimation: small sample properties of ML versus FGLS," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 459-469.
    19. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    20. Maximilian Auffhammer & Solomon M. Hsiang & Wolfram Schlenker & Adam Sobel, 2013. "Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 7(2), pages 181-198, July.
    21. Kattarkandi Byjesh & Soora Kumar & Pramod Aggarwal, 2010. "Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 413-431, June.
    22. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel, 1999. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Developing Countries: Does Adaptation Matter?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 277-293, August.
    23. S. Niggol Seo & Robert Mendelsohn, 2008. "Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(2), pages 151-165, March.
    24. Maximilian Auffhammer & V. Ramanathan & Jeffrey Vincent, 2012. "Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(2), pages 411-424, March.
    25. Chi‐Chung Chen & Ching‐Cheng Chang, 2005. "The impact of weather on crop yield distribution in Taiwan: some new evidence from panel data models and implications for crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(s3), pages 503-511, November.
    26. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Report 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4387.
    27. Attavanich, Witsanu & McCarl, Bruce A., 2011. "The Effect of Climate Change, CO2 Fertilization, and Crop Production Technology on Crop Yields and Its Economic Implications on Market Outcomes and Welfare Distribution," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103324, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Raju Guntukula & Phanindra Goyari, 2020. "Climate Change Effects on the Crop Yield and Its Variability in Telangana, India," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 8(1), pages 119-148, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raju Guntukula & Phanindra Goyari, 2020. "Climate Change Effects on the Crop Yield and Its Variability in Telangana, India," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 8(1), pages 119-148, June.
    2. Saravanakumar, V. & Balasubramanian, 2018. "Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies on Sorghum production in Tamil Nadu, India," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276012, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Byela Tibesigwa & Martine Visser & Jane Turpie, 2017. "Climate change and South Africa’s commercial farms: an assessment of impacts on specialised horticulture, crop, livestock and mixed farming systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 607-636, April.
    4. repec:aer:wpaper:342 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. M. MEHEDI HASAN & Md. ABDUR RASHID SARKER & JEFF GOW, 2016. "Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Aman And Boro Rice Yields In Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-21, August.
    6. Raju Mandal & Hiranya Nath, 2017. "Climate Change and indian Agriculture: Impacts on Crop Yield," Working Papers 1705, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    7. Ahmad, Munir & Nawaz, Muhammad & Iqbal, Muhammad & Javed, Sajid, 2014. "Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Productivity in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Anubhab Pattanayak & K. S. Kavi Kumar, 2014. "Weather Sensitivity Of Rice Yield: Evidence From India," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(04), pages 1-24.
    9. Subhadra Banda, 2013. "The Case of Slum Rehabilitation in Delhi," Working Papers id:5522, eSocialSciences.
    10. McCarl, Bruce A. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Musumba, Mark & Mu, Jianhong E. & Aisabokhae, Ruth, 2011. "Land Use and Climate Change," MPRA Paper 83993, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    11. Kelbore, Zerihun Getachew, 2012. "An Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Yield Variability in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 49466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jesse Tack & Ardian Harri & Keith Coble, 2012. "More than Mean Effects: Modeling the Effect of Climate on the Higher Order Moments of Crop Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1037-1054.
    13. Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2012. "Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 11-16.
    14. Catherine Benjamin & Ewen Gallic, 2017. "Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture: a European case study," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2017-16, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    15. Saumya Verma & Shreekant Gupta & Partha Sen, 2020. "Does climate change make foodgrain yields more unpredictable? Evidence from India," Working papers 305, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    16. Salvatore Di Falco & Mahmud Yesuf & Gunnar Kohlin & Claudia Ringler, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Low-Income Countries: Household Level Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 457-478, August.
    17. Fernando Martín-Mayoral & Juan Fernández Sastre, 2017. "Determinants of social spending in Latin America during and after the Washington consensus: a dynamic panel error-correction model analysis," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 26(1), pages 1-32, December.
    18. Gholizadeh, Heydar & Zoghipour, Mohammad Hossein & Torshizi, Mohammad & Nazari, Mohammad Reza & Moradkhani, Narges, 2021. "Gone with the wind: Impact of soil-dust storms on farm income," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    19. Shahbaz Bhatti & Sarfraz Hassan & Khalid Mushtaq & Kamran Javed, 2020. "Investigation The Impact Of Climate Change On Productivity Of Cotton: Empirical Evidence From Cotton Zone," Big Data In Agriculture (BDA), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 1-4, February.
    20. Samira Shayanmehr & Shida Rastegari Henneberry & Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni & Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani, 2020. "Climate Change and Sustainability of Crop Yield in Dry Regions Food Insecurity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-24, November.
    21. Sheng, Yu & Zhao, Shiji & Yang, Sansi, 2021. "Weather shocks, adaptation and agricultural TFP: A cross-region comparison of Australian Broadacre farms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Agriculture; Productivity changes; Panel corrected standard errors; Regional climate model; India;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:snd:wpaper:91. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anuradhak (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.