IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolec/v120y2015icp49-58.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A hydro-economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Esteve, Paloma
  • Varela-Ortega, Consuelo
  • Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene
  • Downing, Thomas E.

Abstract

Recent research has demonstrated the multidimensional and multi-scalar nature of climate change, evidencing the need to develop integrated tools for the analysis of impacts and adaptation. This research presents a hydro-economic model of the Middle-Guadiana basin, Spain, to assess potential effects of climate change on irrigated agriculture and options for adaptation. It combines a farm-based economic optimisation model with the hydrologic model WEAP, and represents the socio-economic, agronomic and hydrologic systems in a spatially-explicit manner covering all dimensions and scales relevant to climate change. Simulated scenarios include a severe A2 climate change scenario up to 2070, two policy-based adaptation scenarios, and autonomous adaptation. Results show that climate change may impact severely irrigation systems reducing water availability and crop yields, and increasing irrigation water requirements. The risk faced by farmers is determined by technology and water use efficiency but also by spatial location and decisions made in neighbouring irrigation areas. The analysis of adaptation strategies underscores the role of current EU water policy in facilitating adaptation. Overall, the applied framework proved to be a useful tool for supporting water and climate change policy-making. It contributes to improve understanding about potential impacts of climate change, multi-scale vulnerability and the scope for adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Esteve, Paloma & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene & Downing, Thomas E., 2015. "A hydro-economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 49-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:120:y:2015:i:c:p:49-58
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.09.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800915003845
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.09.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kahil, Mohamed Taher & Albiac, José, 2012. "Instrumentos de politica de cambio climatico en la agricultura de Aragon," Revista Espanola de Estudios Agrosociales y Pesqueros, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Rural y Marino (formerly Ministry of Agriculture), issue 233, pages 1-30.
    2. Rosegrant, M. W. & Ringler, C. & McKinney, D. C. & Cai, X. & Keller, A. & Donoso, G., 2000. "Integrated economic-hydrologic water modeling at the basin scale: the Maipo river basin," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 33-46, December.
    3. Berbel, J. & Calatrava, J. & Garrido. A., 2007. "Water pricing and irrigation: a review of the European experience," IWMI Books, Reports H040611, International Water Management Institute.
    4. I. Heinz & M. Pulido-Velazquez & J. Lund & J. Andreu, 2007. "Hydro-economic Modeling in River Basin Management: Implications and Applications for the European Water Framework Directive," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(7), pages 1103-1125, July.
    5. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard & Sulser, Timothy & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marilia & Va, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Berbel, J. & Gomez-Limon, J. A., 2000. "The impact of water-pricing policy in Spain: an analysis of three irrigated areas," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 219-238, March.
    7. Daniela D’Agostino & Alessandra Scardigno & Nicola Lamaddalena & Daniel Chami, 2014. "Sensitivity Analysis of Coupled Hydro-Economic Models: Quantifying Climate Change Uncertainty for Decision-Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4303-4318, September.
    8. Brouwer, Roy & Hofkes, Marjan, 2008. "Integrated hydro-economic modelling: Approaches, key issues and future research directions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 16-22, May.
    9. Marco Moriondo & Marco Bindi & Zbigniew Kundzewicz & M. Szwed & A. Chorynski & P. Matczak & M. Radziejewski & D. McEvoy & Anita Wreford, 2010. "Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 657-679, October.
    10. Volk, Martin & Hirschfeld, Jesko & Dehnhardt, Alexandra & Schmidt, Gerd & Bohn, Carsten & Liersch, Stefan & Gassman, Philip W., 2008. "Integrated ecological-economic modelling of water pollution abatement management options in the Upper Ems River Basin," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 66-76, May.
    11. Brian Joyce & Vishal Mehta & David Purkey & Larry Dale & Michael Hanemann, 2011. "Modifying agricultural water management to adapt to climate change in California’s central valley," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 299-316, December.
    12. Josué Medellín-Azuara & Richard Howitt & Duncan MacEwan & Jay Lund, 2011. "Economic impacts of climate-related changes to California agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 387-405, December.
    13. Molle, Francois & Berkoff, Jeremy (ed.), 2007. "Irrigation water pricing: the gap between theory and practice," IWMI Books, International Water Management Institute, number 137957.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alfonso Expósito & Julio Berbel, 2017. "Why Is Water Pricing Ineffective for Deficit Irrigation Schemes? A Case Study in Southern Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(3), pages 1047-1059, February.
    2. Kragt, Marit Ellen & Bennett, Jeffrey W., 2009. "Integrating economic values and catchment modelling," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 47956, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    3. George HALKOS & Georgia GALANI, 2014. "Cost Effectiveness Analysis in Reducing Nutrient Loading in Baltic and Black Seas A Review," Journal of Advanced Research in Management, ASERS Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 28-51.
    4. Sapino, Francesco & Pérez-Blanco, C. Dionisio & Gutiérrez-Martín, Carlos & García-Prats, Alberto & Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel, 2022. "Influence of crop-water production functions on the expected performance of water pricing policies in irrigated agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    5. Francisco Fernández & Roberto Ponce & Maria Blanco & Diego Rivera & Felipe Vásquez, 2016. "Water Variability and the Economic Impacts on Small-Scale Farmers. A Farm Risk-Based Integrated Modelling Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1357-1373, March.
    6. Blanco-Gutierrez, Irene & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Purkey, David R., 2011. "Integrated Economic-Hydrologic Analysis Of Policy Responses To Promote Sustainable Water Use Under Changing Climatic Conditions," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114253, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Faye, Amy & Msangi, Siwa, 2018. "Rainfall variability and groundwater availability for irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from the Niayes region of Senegal," MPRA Paper 92388, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kragt, Marit Ellen, 2013. "Integrating biophysical and economic systems in a Bayesian Network Hydro-economic framework," Working Papers 153334, University of Western Australia, School of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    9. Xueqin Zhu & Ekko Ierland, 2012. "Economic Modelling for Water Quantity and Quality Management: A Welfare Program Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2491-2511, July.
    10. Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Blanco-Gutierrez, Irene & Swartz, Christopher H. & Downing, Thomas E., 2009. "Dealing with the tradeoff between water for nature and water for rural livelihoods in the presence of climate uncertainties: lessons for water management," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51420, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Pamela Katic, 2015. "Groundwater Spatial Dynamics and Endogenous Well Location," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(1), pages 181-196, January.
    12. Prakashan Veettil & Stijn Speelman & Guido Huylenbroeck, 2013. "Estimating the Impact of Water Pricing on Water Use Efficiency in Semi-arid Cropping System: An Application of Probabilistically Constrained Nonparametric Efficiency Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(1), pages 55-73, January.
    13. de Fraiture, Charlotte & Perry, C. J., 2007. "Why is agricultural water demand unresponsive at low price ranges?," IWMI Books, Reports H040602, International Water Management Institute.
    14. A. Alamanos & D. Latinopoulos & G. Papaioannou & N. Mylopoulos, 2019. "Integrated Hydro-Economic Modeling for Sustainable Water Resources Management in Data-Scarce Areas: The Case of Lake Karla Watershed in Greece," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(8), pages 2775-2790, June.
    15. de Fraiture, Charlotte & Perry, C. J., 2007. "Why is agricultural water demand unresponsive at low price ranges?," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    16. Amjath-Babu, T.S. & Sharma, Bikash & Brouwer, Roy & Rasul, Golam & Wahid, Shahriar M. & Neupane, Nilhari & Bhattarai, Utsav & Sieber, Stefan, 2019. "Integrated modelling of the impacts of hydropower projects on the water-food-energy nexus in a transboundary Himalayan river basin," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 494-503.
    17. Varela-Ortega, Consuelo, 2011. "Participatory Modeling for Sustainable Development in Water and Agrarian Systems: Potential and Limits of Stakeholder Involvement," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115546, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Teresa Torregrosa & Martín Sevilla & Borja Montaño & Victoria López-Vico, 2010. "The Integrated Management of Water Resources in Marina Baja (Alicante, Spain). A Simultaneous Equation Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 3799-3815, November.
    19. Carlo Fezzi & Michael Hutchins & Dan Rigby & Ian J. Bateman & Paulette Posen & David Hadley, 2010. "Integrated assessment of water framework directive nitrate reduction measures," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 123-134, March.
    20. Berbel, Julio & Gutierrez-Marín, Carlos & Expósito, Alfonso, 2018. "Microeconomic analysis of irrigation efficiency improvement in water use and water consumption," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 423-429.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:120:y:2015:i:c:p:49-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.