IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v118y2013i3p701-713.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulating the impacts of climate change on cotton production in India

Author

Listed:
  • K. Hebbar
  • M. Venugopalan
  • A. Prakash
  • P. Aggarwal

Abstract

General circulation models (GCMs) project increases in the earth’s surface air temperatures and other climate changes by the mid or late 21st century, and therefore crops such as cotton (Gossypium spp L.) will be grown in a much different environment than today. To understand the implications of climate change on cotton production in India, cotton production to the different scenarios (A2, B2 and A1B) of future climate was simulated using the simulation model Infocrop-cotton. The GCM projections showed a nearly 3.95, 3.20 and 1.85 °C rise in mean temperature of cotton growing regions of India for the A2, B2 and A1B scenarios, respectively. Simulation results using the Infocrop-cotton model indicated that seed cotton yield declined by 477 kg ha −1 for the A2 scenario and by 268 kg ha −1 for the B2 scenario; while it was non-significant for the A1B scenario. However, it became non-significant under elevated [CO 2 ] levels across all the scenarios. The yield decline was higher in the northern zone over the southern zone. The impact of climate change on rainfed cotton which covers more than 60 % of the country’s total cotton production area (mostly in the central zone) and is dependent on the monsoons is likely to be minimum, possibly on account of marginal increase in rainfall levels. Results of this assessment suggest that productivity in northern India may marginally decline; while in central and southern India, productivity may either remain the same or increase. At the national level, therefore, cotton production is unlikely to change with climate change. Adaptive measures such as changes in planting time and more responsive cultivars may further boost cotton production in India. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • K. Hebbar & M. Venugopalan & A. Prakash & P. Aggarwal, 2013. "Simulating the impacts of climate change on cotton production in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 701-713, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:3:p:701-713
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0673-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-012-0673-4
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-012-0673-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aggarwal, P.K. & Banerjee, B. & Daryaei, M.G. & Bhatia, A. & Bala, A. & Rani, S. & Chander, S. & Pathak, H. & Kalra, N., 2006. "InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. II. Performance of the model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 47-67, July.
    2. Aggarwal, P.K. & Kalra, N. & Chander, S. & Pathak, H., 2006. "InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. I. Model description," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-25, July.
    3. Kattarkandi Byjesh & Soora Kumar & Pramod Aggarwal, 2010. "Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 413-431, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Prabhu Pingali & Anaka Aiyar & Mathew Abraham & Andaleeb Rahman, 2019. "Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-3-030-14409-8, December.
    2. Chen, Xiaoping & Qi, Zhiming & Gui, Dongwei & Gu, Zhe & Ma, Liwang & Zeng, Fanjiang & Li, Lanhai, 2019. "Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 231-241.
    3. Md Nadiruzzaman & Mahjabeen Rahman & Uma Pal & Simon Croxton & Md Bazlur Rashid & Aditya Bahadur & Saleemul Huq, 2021. "Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Production in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-17, January.
    4. Li, Na & Yao, Ning & Li, Yi & Chen, Junqing & Liu, Deli & Biswas, Asim & Li, Linchao & Wang, Tianxue & Chen, Xinguo, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the possible impact of climate change on global cotton yield based on crop simulation approaches," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Iqra Shahzadi & Nausheen Mazhar & Sohail Abbas, 2024. "An assessment of changes and variability of climate impact on cotton production yield over Southern Punjab, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(11), pages 29331-29347, November.
    6. Williams, Allyson & Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Kouadio, Louis & Power, Brendan & Marcussen, Torben & McRae, David & Cockfield, Geoff, 2018. "An investigation of farm-scale adaptation options for cotton production in the face of future climate change and water allocation policies in southern Queensland, Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 124-132.
    7. Ajay Kumar Singh & Bhim Jyoti, 2019. "Measuring the Climate Variability Impact on Cash Crops Farming in India: An Empirical Investigation," Agriculture and Food Sciences Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 155-165.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shirsath, Paresh B. & Aggarwal, P.K. & Thornton, P.K. & Dunnett, A., 2017. "Prioritizing climate-smart agricultural land use options at a regional scale," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 174-183.
    2. Paresh B. Shirsath & Vinay Kumar Sehgal & Pramod K. Aggarwal, 2020. "Downscaling Regional Crop Yields to Local Scale Using Remote Sensing," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Naresh Kumar, S. & Aggarwal, P.K., 2013. "Climate change and coconut plantations in India: Impacts and potential adaptation gains," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 45-54.
    4. Kattarkandi Byjesh & Soora Kumar & Pramod Aggarwal, 2010. "Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 413-431, June.
    5. Fargue-Lelièvre, A. & Le Cœur, D. & Baudry, J., 2011. "Integrating farming techniques in an ecological matrix model: Implementation on the primrose (Primula vulgaris)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(4), pages 1002-1015.
    6. Sulav Paudel & Lalit P. Sah & Mukti Devkota & Vijaya Poudyal & P.V. Vara Prasad & Manuel R. Reyes, 2020. "Conservation Agriculture and Integrated Pest Management Practices Improve Yield and Income while Reducing Labor, Pests, Diseases and Chemical Pesticide Use in Smallholder Vegetable Farms in Nepal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-16, August.
    7. Singh, P. & Aggarwal, P. K. & Bhatia, V. S. & Murty, M. V. R. & Pala, M. & Oweis, T. & Benli, B. & Rao, K. P. C. & Wani, S. P., 2009. "Yield gap analysis: modelling of achievable yields at farm level," IWMI Books, Reports H041995, International Water Management Institute.
    8. Selvaraj Krishnan & Subhash Chander, 2015. "Simulation of climatic change impact on crop-pest interactions: a case study of rice pink stem borer Sesamia inferens (Walker)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(2), pages 259-272, July.
    9. K. Viswanath & P. Sinha & S. Naresh Kumar & Taru Sharma & Shalini Saxena & Shweta Panjwani & H. Pathak & Shalu Mishra Shukla, 2017. "Simulation of leaf blast infection in tropical rice agro-ecology under climate change scenario," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 155-167, May.
    10. Kalra, Naveen & Chakraborty, Debashis & Ramesh Kumar, P. & Jolly, Monica & Sharma, P.K., 2007. "An approach to bridging yield gaps, combining response to water and other resource inputs for wheat in northern India, using research trials and farmers' fields data," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 54-64, October.
    11. Faramarzi, Monireh & Yang, Hong & Schulin, Rainer & Abbaspour, Karim C., 2010. "Modeling wheat yield and crop water productivity in Iran: Implications of agricultural water management for wheat production," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(11), pages 1861-1875, November.
    12. Mohammed Khalil Mellal & Rassim Khelifa & Abdelmadjid Chelli & Naima Djouadi & Khodir Madani, 2023. "Combined Effects of Climate and Pests on Fig ( Ficus carica L.) Yield in a Mediterranean Region: Implications for Sustainable Agricultural Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-12, March.
    13. Dhakar, Rajkumar & Sehgal, Vinay Kumar & Chakraborty, Debasish & Sahoo, Rabi Narayan & Mukherjee, Joydeep & Ines, Amor V.M. & Kumar, Soora Naresh & Shirsath, Paresh B. & Roy, Somnath Baidya, 2022. "Field scale spatial wheat yield forecasting system under limited field data availability by integrating crop simulation model with weather forecast and satellite remote sensing," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    14. Lacroix, Octave & Lescourret, Françoise & Génard, Michel & Memah, Mohamed-Mahmoud & Vercambre, Gilles & Valsesia, Pierre & Bevacqua, Daniele & Grechi, Isabelle, 2024. "Modeling the effect of multiple pests on ecosystem services provided by fruit crops: Application to apple," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    15. Verma, Amit Kumar & Garg, Pradeep Kumar & Prasad, K.S. Hari & Dadhwal, Vinay Kumar, 2023. "Variety-specific sugarcane yield simulations and climate change impacts on sugarcane yield using DSSAT-CSM-CANEGRO model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    16. Naresh Soora & P. Aggarwal & Rani Saxena & Swaroopa Rani & Surabhi Jain & Nitin Chauhan, 2013. "An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 683-699, June.
    17. Dubey, Rachana & Pathak, Himanshu & Chakrabarti, Bidisha & Singh, Shivdhar & Gupta, Dipak Kumar & Harit, R.C., 2020. "Impact of terminal heat stress on wheat yield in India and options for adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    18. Tapendra Kumar Srivastava & Pushpa Singh & Ram Ratan Verma, 2022. "Weather variability trends in Gangetic plains of Uttar Pradesh, India: influence on cropping systems and adaptation strategies," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 3588-3618, March.
    19. Tiecheng Bai & Nannan Zhang & Youqi Chen & Benoit Mercatoris, 2019. "Assessing the Performance of the WOFOST Model in Simulating Jujube Fruit Tree Growth under Different Irrigation Regimes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, March.
    20. Alobid, Mohannad & István, Szűcs, 2019. "Evaluation Of Crop And Irrigation Water Requirements For Some Selected Crops In Apulia Region -Southern Italy," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 13(3-4), December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:3:p:701-713. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.