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Simulating the impacts of climate change on cotton production in India

Author

Listed:
  • K. Hebbar
  • M. Venugopalan
  • A. Prakash
  • P. Aggarwal

Abstract

General circulation models (GCMs) project increases in the earth’s surface air temperatures and other climate changes by the mid or late 21st century, and therefore crops such as cotton (Gossypium spp L.) will be grown in a much different environment than today. To understand the implications of climate change on cotton production in India, cotton production to the different scenarios (A2, B2 and A1B) of future climate was simulated using the simulation model Infocrop-cotton. The GCM projections showed a nearly 3.95, 3.20 and 1.85 °C rise in mean temperature of cotton growing regions of India for the A2, B2 and A1B scenarios, respectively. Simulation results using the Infocrop-cotton model indicated that seed cotton yield declined by 477 kg ha −1 for the A2 scenario and by 268 kg ha −1 for the B2 scenario; while it was non-significant for the A1B scenario. However, it became non-significant under elevated [CO 2 ] levels across all the scenarios. The yield decline was higher in the northern zone over the southern zone. The impact of climate change on rainfed cotton which covers more than 60 % of the country’s total cotton production area (mostly in the central zone) and is dependent on the monsoons is likely to be minimum, possibly on account of marginal increase in rainfall levels. Results of this assessment suggest that productivity in northern India may marginally decline; while in central and southern India, productivity may either remain the same or increase. At the national level, therefore, cotton production is unlikely to change with climate change. Adaptive measures such as changes in planting time and more responsive cultivars may further boost cotton production in India. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • K. Hebbar & M. Venugopalan & A. Prakash & P. Aggarwal, 2013. "Simulating the impacts of climate change on cotton production in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 701-713, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:3:p:701-713
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0673-4
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    1. Aggarwal, P.K. & Banerjee, B. & Daryaei, M.G. & Bhatia, A. & Bala, A. & Rani, S. & Chander, S. & Pathak, H. & Kalra, N., 2006. "InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. II. Performance of the model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 47-67, July.
    2. Aggarwal, P.K. & Kalra, N. & Chander, S. & Pathak, H., 2006. "InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. I. Model description," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-25, July.
    3. Kattarkandi Byjesh & Soora Kumar & Pramod Aggarwal, 2010. "Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 413-431, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Prabhu Pingali & Anaka Aiyar & Mathew Abraham & Andaleeb Rahman, 2019. "Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-3-030-14409-8, November.
    2. Chen, Xiaoping & Qi, Zhiming & Gui, Dongwei & Gu, Zhe & Ma, Liwang & Zeng, Fanjiang & Li, Lanhai, 2019. "Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 231-241.
    3. Md Nadiruzzaman & Mahjabeen Rahman & Uma Pal & Simon Croxton & Md Bazlur Rashid & Aditya Bahadur & Saleemul Huq, 2021. "Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Production in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-17, January.
    4. Li, Na & Yao, Ning & Li, Yi & Chen, Junqing & Liu, Deli & Biswas, Asim & Li, Linchao & Wang, Tianxue & Chen, Xinguo, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the possible impact of climate change on global cotton yield based on crop simulation approaches," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Iqra Shahzadi & Nausheen Mazhar & Sohail Abbas, 2024. "An assessment of changes and variability of climate impact on cotton production yield over Southern Punjab, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(11), pages 29331-29347, November.
    6. Williams, Allyson & Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Kouadio, Louis & Power, Brendan & Marcussen, Torben & McRae, David & Cockfield, Geoff, 2018. "An investigation of farm-scale adaptation options for cotton production in the face of future climate change and water allocation policies in southern Queensland, Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 124-132.
    7. Ajay Kumar Singh & Bhim Jyoti, 2019. "Measuring the Climate Variability Impact on Cash Crops Farming in India: An Empirical Investigation," Agriculture and Food Sciences Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 155-165.

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