IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v220y2009i21p3011-3020.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Linking species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change in lakes with a complex and a minimal model

Author

Listed:
  • Mooij, W.M.
  • De Senerpont Domis, L.N.
  • Janse, J.H.

Abstract

To study the interaction between species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change, we focus on the question of how climate-induced shifts in key species affect the positive feedback loops that lock shallow lakes either in a transparent, macrophyte-dominated state or, alternatively, in a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. We hypothesize that climate warming will weaken the resilience of the macrophyte-dominated clear state. For the turbid state, we hypothesize that climate warming and climate-induced eutrophication will increase the dominance of cyanobacteria. Climate change will also affect shallow lakes through a changing hydrology and through climate change-induced eutrophication. We study these phenomena using two models, the full ecosystem model PCLake and a minimal dynamic model of lake phosphorus dynamics. Quantitative predictions with the complex model show that changes in nutrient loading, hydraulic loading and climate warming can all lead to shifts in ecosystem state. The minimal model helped in interpreting the non-linear behaviour of the complex model. The main output parameters of interest for water quality managers are the critical nutrient loading at which the system will switch from clear to turbid and the much lower critical nutrient loading – due to hysteresis – at which the system switches back. Another important output parameter is the chlorophyll-a level in the turbid state. For each of these three output parameters we performed a sensitivity analysis to further understand the dynamics of the complex model PCLake. This analysis showed that our model results are most sensitive to changes in temperature-dependence of cyanobacteria, planktivorous fish and zooplankton. We argue that by combining models at various levels of complexity and looking at multiple aspects of climate changes simultaneously we can develop an integrated view of the potential impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Mooij, W.M. & De Senerpont Domis, L.N. & Janse, J.H., 2009. "Linking species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change in lakes with a complex and a minimal model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(21), pages 3011-3020.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:21:p:3011-3020
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.02.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380009000921
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.02.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
    2. Jens H. Christensen & Ole B. Christensen, 2003. "Severe summertime flooding in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6925), pages 805-806, February.
    3. Gian-Reto Walther & Eric Post & Peter Convey & Annette Menzel & Camille Parmesan & Trevor J. C. Beebee & Jean-Marc Fromentin & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Franz Bairlein, 2002. "Ecological responses to recent climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6879), pages 389-395, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ekaterini Hadjisolomou & Konstantinos Stefanidis & George Papatheodorou & Evanthia Papastergiadou, 2016. "Assessing the Contribution of the Environmental Parameters to Eutrophication with the Use of the “PaD” and “PaD2” Methods in a Hypereutrophic Lake," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-14, July.
    2. Mattsson, B.J. & Runge, M.C. & Devries, J.H. & Boomer, G.S. & Eadie, J.M. & Haukos, D.A. & Fleskes, J.P. & Koons, D.N. & Thogmartin, W.E. & Clark, R.G., 2012. "A modeling framework for integrated harvest and habitat management of North American waterfowl: Case-study of northern pintail metapopulation dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 146-158.
    3. Zhang, Chen & Zhu, Zixuan & Špoljar, Maria & Kuczyńska-Kippen, Natalia & Dražina, Tvrtko & Cvetnić, Matija & Mleczek, Mirosław, 2022. "Ecosystem models indicate zooplankton biomass response to nutrient input and climate warming is related to lake size," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    4. Temidayo Olowoyeye & Mariusz Ptak & Mariusz Sojka, 2023. "How Do Extreme Lake Water Temperatures in Poland Respond to Climate Change?," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Shahram Missaghi & Miki Hondzo & William Herb, 2017. "Prediction of lake water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and fish habitat under changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 747-757, April.
    6. Osakpolor, Stephen E. & Kattwinkel, Mira & Schirmel, Jens & Feckler, Alexander & Manfrin, Alessandro & Schäfer, Ralf B., 2021. "Mini-review of process-based food web models and their application in aquatic-terrestrial meta-ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 458(C).
    7. Taner, Mehmet Ümit & Carleton, James N. & Wellman, Marjorie, 2011. "Integrated model projections of climate change impacts on a North American lake," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(18), pages 3380-3393.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anne Goodenough & Adam Hart, 2013. "Correlates of vulnerability to climate-induced distribution changes in European avifauna: habitat, migration and endemism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 659-669, June.
    2. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    3. Zhang, Jiarui & Jørgensen, Sven E. & Lu, Jianjian & Nielsen, Søren N. & Wang, Qiang, 2014. "A model for the contribution of macrophyte-derived organic carbon in harvested tidal freshwater marshes to surrounding estuarine and oceanic ecosystems and its response to global warming," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 294(C), pages 105-116.
    4. A. Kosanic & S. Harrison & K. Anderson & I. Kavcic, 2014. "Present and historical climate variability in South West England," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 221-237, May.
    5. Rougier, Thibaud & Drouineau, Hilaire & Dumoulin, Nicolas & Faure, Thierry & Deffuant, Guillaume & Rochard, Eric & Lambert, Patrick, 2014. "The GR3D model, a tool to explore the Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 283(C), pages 31-44.
    6. Guillaume Bal & Etienne Rivot & Jean-Luc Baglinière & Jonathan White & Etienne Prévost, 2014. "A Hierarchical Bayesian Model to Quantify Uncertainty of Stream Water Temperature Forecasts," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-24, December.
    7. Fuentes, M.M.P.B. & Porter, W.P., 2013. "Using a microclimate model to evaluate impacts of climate change on sea turtles," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 150-157.
    8. Ernesto Azzurro & Paula Moschella & Francesc Maynou, 2011. "Tracking Signals of Change in Mediterranean Fish Diversity Based on Local Ecological Knowledge," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-8, September.
    9. Dan Song & Tangbin Huo & Zhao Zhang & Lei Cheng & Le Wang & Kun Ming & Hui Liu & Mengsha Li & Xue Du, 2022. "Metagenomic Analysis Reveals the Response of Microbial Communities and Their Functions in Lake Sediment to Environmental Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Sajid Khan & Zishan Ahmad Wani & Rameez Ahmad & Kailash S. Gaira & Susheel Verma, 2024. "Time series analysis of climatic variability and trends in Shiwalik to Pir Panjal mountain range in the Indian western Himalaya," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 20355-20377, August.
    11. Edward Kato & Claudia Ringler & Mahmud Yesuf & Elizabeth Bryan, 2011. "Soil and water conservation technologies: a buffer against production risk in the face of climate change? Insights from the Nile basin in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(5), pages 593-604, September.
    12. Lazarus Chapungu & Luxon Nhamo & Roberto Cazzolla Gatti & Munyaradzi Chitakira, 2020. "Quantifying Changes in Plant Species Diversity in a Savanna Ecosystem Through Observed and Remotely Sensed Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
    13. Hong Ying & Hongyan Zhang & Ying Sun & Jianjun Zhao & Zhengxiang Zhang & Xiaoyi Guo & Hang Zhao & Rihan Wu & Guorong Deng, 2020. "CMIP5-Based Spatiotemporal Changes of Extreme Temperature Events during 2021–2100 in Mainland China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, May.
    14. Peng Qi & Guangxin Zhang & Yi Jun Xu & Zhikun Xia & Ming Wang, 2019. "Response of Water Resources to Future Climate Change in a High-Latitude River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-21, October.
    15. Víctor Rincón & Javier Velázquez & Derya Gülçin & Aida López-Sánchez & Carlos Jiménez & Ali Uğur Özcan & Juan Carlos López-Almansa & Tomás Santamaría & Daniel Sánchez-Mata & Kerim Çiçek, 2023. "Mapping Priority Areas for Connectivity of Yellow-Winged Darter ( Sympetrum flaveolum , Linnaeus 1758) under Climate Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-39, January.
    16. Huicong An & Xiaorong Zhang & Jiaqi Ye, 2024. "Analysis of Vegetation Environmental Stress and the Lag Effect in Countries along the “Six Economic Corridors”," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-18, April.
    17. Lucie Kuczynski & Mathieu Chevalier & Pascal Laffaille & Marion Legrand & Gaël Grenouillet, 2017. "Indirect effect of temperature on fish population abundances through phenological changes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, April.
    18. Iwona Gottfried & Tomasz Gottfried & Grzegorz Lesiński & Grzegorz Hebda & Maurycy Ignaczak & Grzegorz Wojtaszyn & Mirosław Jurczyszyn & Maciej Fuszara & Elżbieta Fuszara & Witold Grzywiński & Grzegorz, 2020. "Long-term changes in winter abundance of the barbastelle Barbastella barbastellus in Poland and the climate change – Are current monitoring schemes still reliable for cryophilic bat species?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-18, February.
    19. Kathleen A. Alexander & Marcos Carzolio & Douglas Goodin & Eric Vance, 2013. "Climate Change is Likely to Worsen the Public Health Threat of Diarrheal Disease in Botswana," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-29, March.
    20. Stergios Pirintsos & Luca Paoli & Stefano Loppi & Kiriakos Kotzabasis, 2011. "Photosynthetic performance of lichen transplants as early indicator of climatic stress along an altitudinal gradient in the arid Mediterranean area," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 305-328, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:21:p:3011-3020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.