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Linking species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change in lakes with a complex and a minimal model

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  • Mooij, W.M.
  • De Senerpont Domis, L.N.
  • Janse, J.H.

Abstract

To study the interaction between species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change, we focus on the question of how climate-induced shifts in key species affect the positive feedback loops that lock shallow lakes either in a transparent, macrophyte-dominated state or, alternatively, in a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. We hypothesize that climate warming will weaken the resilience of the macrophyte-dominated clear state. For the turbid state, we hypothesize that climate warming and climate-induced eutrophication will increase the dominance of cyanobacteria. Climate change will also affect shallow lakes through a changing hydrology and through climate change-induced eutrophication. We study these phenomena using two models, the full ecosystem model PCLake and a minimal dynamic model of lake phosphorus dynamics. Quantitative predictions with the complex model show that changes in nutrient loading, hydraulic loading and climate warming can all lead to shifts in ecosystem state. The minimal model helped in interpreting the non-linear behaviour of the complex model. The main output parameters of interest for water quality managers are the critical nutrient loading at which the system will switch from clear to turbid and the much lower critical nutrient loading – due to hysteresis – at which the system switches back. Another important output parameter is the chlorophyll-a level in the turbid state. For each of these three output parameters we performed a sensitivity analysis to further understand the dynamics of the complex model PCLake. This analysis showed that our model results are most sensitive to changes in temperature-dependence of cyanobacteria, planktivorous fish and zooplankton. We argue that by combining models at various levels of complexity and looking at multiple aspects of climate changes simultaneously we can develop an integrated view of the potential impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Mooij, W.M. & De Senerpont Domis, L.N. & Janse, J.H., 2009. "Linking species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change in lakes with a complex and a minimal model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(21), pages 3011-3020.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:21:p:3011-3020
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.02.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jens H. Christensen & Ole B. Christensen, 2003. "Severe summertime flooding in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6925), pages 805-806, February.
    2. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
    3. Gian-Reto Walther & Eric Post & Peter Convey & Annette Menzel & Camille Parmesan & Trevor J. C. Beebee & Jean-Marc Fromentin & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Franz Bairlein, 2002. "Ecological responses to recent climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6879), pages 389-395, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ekaterini Hadjisolomou & Konstantinos Stefanidis & George Papatheodorou & Evanthia Papastergiadou, 2016. "Assessing the Contribution of the Environmental Parameters to Eutrophication with the Use of the “PaD” and “PaD2” Methods in a Hypereutrophic Lake," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-14, July.
    2. Mattsson, B.J. & Runge, M.C. & Devries, J.H. & Boomer, G.S. & Eadie, J.M. & Haukos, D.A. & Fleskes, J.P. & Koons, D.N. & Thogmartin, W.E. & Clark, R.G., 2012. "A modeling framework for integrated harvest and habitat management of North American waterfowl: Case-study of northern pintail metapopulation dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 146-158.
    3. Zhang, Chen & Zhu, Zixuan & Špoljar, Maria & Kuczyńska-Kippen, Natalia & Dražina, Tvrtko & Cvetnić, Matija & Mleczek, Mirosław, 2022. "Ecosystem models indicate zooplankton biomass response to nutrient input and climate warming is related to lake size," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    4. Temidayo Olowoyeye & Mariusz Ptak & Mariusz Sojka, 2023. "How Do Extreme Lake Water Temperatures in Poland Respond to Climate Change?," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Shahram Missaghi & Miki Hondzo & William Herb, 2017. "Prediction of lake water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and fish habitat under changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 747-757, April.
    6. Osakpolor, Stephen E. & Kattwinkel, Mira & Schirmel, Jens & Feckler, Alexander & Manfrin, Alessandro & Schäfer, Ralf B., 2021. "Mini-review of process-based food web models and their application in aquatic-terrestrial meta-ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 458(C).
    7. Taner, Mehmet Ümit & Carleton, James N. & Wellman, Marjorie, 2011. "Integrated model projections of climate change impacts on a North American lake," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(18), pages 3380-3393.

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