Using a microclimate model to evaluate impacts of climate change on sea turtles

Sea turtles are thought to be particularly vulnerable to climate change as projected increases in temperature may skew the sex ratio of their hatchlings, decrease hatchling success and thus threaten population persistence. Given the seriousness of the threat from climate change it is critical to understand the rate at which soil temperatures at sea turtles’ nesting grounds are likely to change. This has stimulated the development of correlative models to assess and project how projected increases in temperature may impact sea turtle's reproductive output. Correlative models correlate climatic variables to soil temperature and hatchling sex ratio. These models have been widely used due to their simplicity and the flexibility of their data requirement. However, outputs are restricted by the environmental conditions used for the model and thus does not allow exploration of daily variation in sand temperature. Further, the potential error inherent in this approach has not been determined.