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Prediction of lake water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and fish habitat under changing climate

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  • Shahram Missaghi

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Miki Hondzo

    (University of Minnesota)

  • William Herb

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

We applied a three-dimensional lake water quality model to investigate the influence of local meteorological conditions on fish habitat under one historical and two future climate change scenarios. Compared to the historical normal climate scenario, the averaged surface water temperature increases up to 4 °C and the dissolved oxygen concentration is 1 mgL−1 less during the ice-free seasons under the future climate scenarios. The stratification periods expand up to 23% (46 days), thermocline depths increase 49%, and the onset of anoxia occurs 4 weeks earlier under the future climate scenarios. The dissolved oxygen concentrations and water temperatures are used as the key water quality parameters to investigate the temporal and spatial variabilities of fish habitat. The good growth, restricted growth, and lethal habitats for the coolwater fish change up to 14% of the total lake volume. Compared to the historical normal climate scenario, on average, the lake total volume for good growth, restricted growth, and lethal habitat of coolwater fish change +16, −18, and +85%, respectively. The most significant (70%) changes in lethal habitat for coolwater fish occurs in the upper 5 m of the water column. During summer, a modest increase of lethal habitat for coolwater fish (8% of total lake volume) has a pronounced impact on the good growth habitat. The prediction of spatial locations and time periods of potential fish habitats during stressed or lethal environmental conditions is becoming increasingly important for managing fish habitats under changing climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahram Missaghi & Miki Hondzo & William Herb, 2017. "Prediction of lake water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and fish habitat under changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 747-757, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1916-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1916-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mooij, W.M. & De Senerpont Domis, L.N. & Janse, J.H., 2009. "Linking species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change in lakes with a complex and a minimal model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(21), pages 3011-3020.
    2. Moe, S. Jannicke & Haande, Sigrid & Couture, Raoul-Marie, 2016. "Climate change, cyanobacteria blooms and ecological status of lakes: A Bayesian network approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 337(C), pages 330-347.
    3. Jonathan Butcher & Daniel Nover & Thomas Johnson & Christopher Clark, 2015. "Sensitivity of lake thermal and mixing dynamics to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 295-305, March.
    4. Missaghi, Shahram & Hondzo, Miki, 2010. "Evaluation and application of a three-dimensional water quality model in a shallow lake with complex morphometry," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(11), pages 1512-1525.
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    Cited by:

    1. Godfred Owusu-Boateng & Akwasi Ampofo-Yeboah & Thomas Kwaku Agyemang & Kofi Sarpong, 2022. "Seasonal Variation In Water Quality Index Of The Lake Bosomtwe Biosphere Reserve," Environment & Ecosystem Science (EES), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 46-51, April.

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