IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v243y2024ics0165176524004397.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do investors care about inflation risk? Evidence from global bond portfolio allocation

Author

Listed:
  • Ceballos, Luis
  • Ng, Oscar

Abstract

We investigate whether mutual funds adjust their portfolio allocations in global bond markets in response to country-level measures of inflation risk, specifically inflation volatility risk and inflation cyclicality. Our findings indicate that portfolio managers decrease allocations in countries with higher inflation volatility risk, relative to their overall portfolio exposure to inflation volatility risk. In contrast, inflation cyclicality does not exert a significant influence on global portfolio allocation decisions. We strengthen our results by analyzing funds according to their geographic investment mandates, fund characteristics, and portfolio composition.

Suggested Citation

  • Ceballos, Luis & Ng, Oscar, 2024. "Do investors care about inflation risk? Evidence from global bond portfolio allocation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:243:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524004397
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111955
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176524004397
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111955?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2012. "On the international transmission of shocks: Micro-evidence from mutual fund portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 357-374.
    2. Mr. Robin Koepke & Simon Paetzold, 2020. "Capital Flow Data – A Guide for Empirical Analysis and Real-time Tracking," IMF Working Papers 2020/171, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Alexander Kupfer, 2018. "Estimating Inflation Risk Premia Using Inflation‐Linked Bonds: A Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5), pages 1326-1354, December.
    4. Albagli, Elias & Ceballos, Luis & Claro, Sebastian & Romero, Damian, 2019. "Channels of US monetary policy spillovers to international bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 447-473.
    5. Converse, Nathan & Mallucci, Enrico, 2023. "Differential treatment in the bond market: Sovereign risk and mutual fund portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
    7. Boons, Martijn & Duarte, Fernando & de Roon, Frans & Szymanowska, Marta, 2020. "Time-varying inflation risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 444-470.
    8. Ceballos, Luis & Romero, Damian, 2022. "International portfolio bond spillovers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    9. Anna Cieslak & Carolin Pflueger, 2023. "Inflation and Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 30982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Xiang Fang & Yang Liu & Nikolai Roussanov, 2022. "Getting to the Core: Inflation Risks Within and Across Asset Classes," NBER Working Papers 30169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Albagli, Elias & Ceballos, Luis & Claro, Sebastian & Romero, Damian, 2024. "UIP deviations: Insights from event studies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    12. Johnny Kang & Carolin E. Pflueger, 2015. "Inflation Risk in Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 115-162, February.
    13. Anna Cieslak & Carolin Pflueger, 2023. "Inflation and Asset Returns," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 15(1), pages 433-448, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Diego Bonelli & Berardino Palazzo & Ram S. Yamarthy, 2025. "“Good” Inflation, “Bad” Inflation: Implications for Risky Asset Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-002, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Schnorpfeil, Philip & Weber, Michael & Hackethal, Andreas, 2024. "Inflation and trading," CFS Working Paper Series 727, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    3. Philip Schnorpfeil & Michael Weber & Andreas Hackethal & Michael Weber, 2024. "Inflation and Trading," CESifo Working Paper Series 11580, CESifo.
    4. Schnorpfeil, Philip & Weber, Michael & Hackethal, Andreas, 2024. "Inflation and trading," SAFE Working Paper Series 419, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    5. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2024. "Downward Nominal Rigidities and Bond Premia," Working Paper Series WP 2024-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. Bandi, Federico M. & Bretscher, Lorenzo & Tamoni, Andrea, 2023. "Return predictability with endogenous growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    7. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2020. "No-arbitrage determinants of credit spread curves under the unconventional monetary policy regime in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    8. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    9. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Christian Dorion & Alexandre Jeanneret & Michael Weber, 2018. "Low Inflation: High Default Risk AND High Equity Valuations," NBER Working Papers 25317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jonathon Hazell & Stephan Hobler, 2024. "Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach," Discussion Papers 2439, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    11. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    12. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Ermolov, Andrey, 2021. "Macro risks and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 479-504.
    13. Tatsuyoshi OKIMOTO & Sumiko TAKAOKA, 2017. "No-arbitrage Determinants of Japanese Government Bond Yield and Credit Spread Curves," Discussion papers 17104, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Barroso, Pedro & Boons, Martijn & Karehnke, Paul, 2021. "Time-varying state variable risk premia in the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 428-451.
    15. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & de Hollanda Lima, Natalia Teixeira, 2022. "Discretionary fiscal policy, fiscal credibility and inflation risk premium," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 208-222.
    16. Agarwal, Isha & Baron, Matthew, 2024. "Inflation and Disintermediation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    17. Timmermann, Allan & Burjack, Rafael & Qu, Ritong, 2019. "Fluctuations in Economic Uncertainty and Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence Using Daily Surveys from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 14097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Konchitchki, Yaniv & Xie, Jin, 2023. "Undisclosed material inflation risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 82-100.
    19. Arbatli-Saxegaard, Elif & Furceri, Davide & Gonzalez Dominguez, Pablo & Ostry, Jonathan & Peiris, Shanaka, 2022. "Spillovers from US Monetary Shocks: Role of Policy Drivers and Cyclical Conditions," ADBI Working Papers 1317, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    20. Michael Weber & Christian Dorion & Alexandre Jeanneret & Harjoat Bhamra, 2017. "Deflation, Sticky Leverage and Asset Prices," 2017 Meeting Papers 796, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fixed income; Inflation risk; Portfolio allocation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:243:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524004397. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.