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No-arbitrage determinants of credit spread curves under the unconventional monetary policy regime in Japan

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  • Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi
  • Takaoka, Sumiko

Abstract

We introduce an affine term structure model with observed macroeconomic factors for credit spread curves under the unconventional monetary policy regime in Japan. Empirical results based on the model selection using Japanese data demonstrate that the credit spread curves are dominated by the monetary policy and suggest that global economic forces, such as the U.S. Treasury yield and Baa-Aaa credit spread, play a major role in the dynamics of credit spread curves, complementing a growing body of literature explaining what drives credit spread curves. Our contemporaneous response and historical decomposition analyses find that monetary policy and global economic and financial forces have large impacts on credit spread curves at all maturities and rating classes.

Suggested Citation

  • Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2020. "No-arbitrage determinants of credit spread curves under the unconventional monetary policy regime in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:64:y:2020:i:c:s1042443119300290
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2019.101143
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    Cited by:

    1. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2022. "The credit spread curve distribution and economic fluctuations in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Cho, Sungjun & Hyde, Stuart & Liu, Liu, 2022. "The yen–dollar risk premium: A story of regime shifts in bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Huang, Xiaoyong & Yu, Cong & Chen, Yunping & Jia, Fei & Xu, Xiangyun, 2022. "Rigid payment breaking, default spread and yields of Chinese treasury bonds," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Affine term structure; Credit spreads; Flight-to-quality; Unconventional monetary policy regime;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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