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Getting to the Core: Inflation Risks Within and Across Asset Classes

Author

Listed:
  • Xiang Fang
  • Yang Liu
  • Nikolai Roussanov

Abstract

Do “real” assets protect against inflation? Core inflation betas of stocks are negative while energy betas are positive; currencies, commodities, and real estate also mostly hedge against energy inflation but not core. These hedging properties are reflected in the prices of inflation risks: only core inflation carries a negative risk premium, and its magnitude is consistent both within and across asset classes, uniquely among macroeconomic risk factors. While high core inflation tends to be followed by low real output, consumption, and dividend payouts, it impacts asset prices through both cash-flow and discount rate channels. The relative contribution of core and energy changes over time, helping explain the time-varying correlation between stock and bond returns. A two-sector New Keynesian model qualitatively accounts for these facts and implies that the changing stock-bond correlation can be attributed to the shifting importance of supply and demand shocks in driving energy inflation over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiang Fang & Yang Liu & Nikolai Roussanov, 2022. "Getting to the Core: Inflation Risks Within and Across Asset Classes," NBER Working Papers 30169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30169
    Note: AP CF EFG IFM ME
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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w30169.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bandi, Federico M. & Bretscher, Lorenzo & Tamoni, Andrea, 2023. "Return predictability with endogenous growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    2. Bahaj, Saleem & Czech, Robert & Ding, Sitong & Reis, Ricardo, 2023. "The market for inflation risk," Bank of England working papers 1028, Bank of England.
    3. Agarwal, Isha & Baron, Matthew, 2024. "Inflation and Disintermediation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Konchitchki, Yaniv & Xie, Jin, 2023. "Undisclosed material inflation risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 82-100.
    5. Schnorpfeil, Philip & Weber, Michael & Hackethal, Andreas, 2024. "Inflation and trading," SAFE Working Paper Series 419, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    6. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2024. "Downward Nominal Rigidities and Bond Premia," Working Paper Series WP 2024-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    7. Sakurai, Yuji & Kurosaki, Tetsuo, 2023. "Have cryptocurrencies become an inflation hedge after the reopening of the U.S. economy?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Philip Schnorpfeil & Michael Weber & Andreas Hackethal & Michael Weber, 2024. "Inflation and Trading," CESifo Working Paper Series 11580, CESifo.
    9. Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Lin, Shu-Chin, 2023. "Income inequality, inflation and financial development," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 468-487.
    10. Geng Li & Nitish R. Sinha, 2023. "Are Real Assets Owners Less Averse to Inflation? Evidence from Consumer Sentiments and Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Pallotti, Filippo & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Violante, Giovanni L., 2023. "Who bears the costs of inflation? Euro area households and the 2021–2022 shock," Working Paper Series 2877, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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