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Fluctuations in Economic Uncertainty and Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence Using Daily Surveys from Brazil

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  • Timmermann, Allan
  • Burjack, Rafael
  • Qu, Ritong

Abstract

We use a unique Brazilian dataset on daily survey expectations to obtain direct measures of shocks to central bank target rates and changes in economic uncertainty. Using these measures, we gauge the effect of monetary policy shocks on economic uncertainty, term premia, inflation expectations, and bond yields in Brazil. We find strong evidence that inflation uncertainty is key to transmitting monetary policy shocks to the yield curve via time-varying term premia. Finally, Fed announcements have sizeable spillover effects on the Brazilian bond market, as positive shocks to US yields significantly raise term premia in Brazil through elevated exchange rate risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Timmermann, Allan & Burjack, Rafael & Qu, Ritong, 2019. "Fluctuations in Economic Uncertainty and Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence Using Daily Surveys from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 14097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14097
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    Cited by:

    1. Cavaca, Igor Bastos & Meurer, Roberto, 2024. "The asymmetry and uncertainty effects on the response of the yield curve to Brazilian monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 831-844.

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    Keywords

    Inflation uncertainty; Term structure; Monetary policy shocks;
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