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Uncertainty about carbon impact and the willingness to avoid CO2 emissions

Author

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  • Pace, Davide D.
  • Imai, Taisuke
  • Schwardmann, Peter
  • van der Weele, Joël J.

Abstract

Using data from a large representative survey, we document that consumers are very uncertain about the emissions associated with various actions, which may affect their willingness to reduce their carbon footprint. We then experimentally test two channels for the behavioral impact of such uncertainty, namely risk aversion about the impact of mitigating actions and the formation of motivated beliefs about this impact. In two novel large online experiments (N=2,219), participants make incentivized trade-offs between personal gain and (uncertain) carbon impact. We find no evidence that uncertainty affects individual climate change mitigation efforts through risk aversion or motivated belief channels. The results suggest that reducing consumer uncertainty through information campaigns is not a policy panacea and that communicating scientific uncertainty around climate impact need not backfire.

Suggested Citation

  • Pace, Davide D. & Imai, Taisuke & Schwardmann, Peter & van der Weele, Joël J., 2025. "Uncertainty about carbon impact and the willingness to avoid CO2 emissions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:227:y:2025:i:c:s0921800924002982
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108401
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrej Woerner & Taisuke Imai & Davide D. Pace & Klaus M. Schmidt, 2024. "How to increase public support for carbon pricing with revenue recycling," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 7(12), pages 1633-1641, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; Sustainable consumption; Economic experiments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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