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What Is CEO Overconfidence? Evidence from Executive Assessments

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  • Steven N. Kaplan
  • Morten Sorensen
  • Anastasia A. Zakolyukina

Abstract

We use detailed assessments of CEO personalities to explore the option-based measure of CEO overconfidence, Longholder, introduced by Malmendier and Tate (2005a) and widely used in the behavioral corporate finance and economics literatures. Longholder is significantly related to several specific characteristics and is negatively related to general ability. These relations also hold for overconfidence measures derived from CEOs’ earnings guidance. Investment-cash flow sensitivities are larger for both Longholder and less able CEOs. Overall, Longholder CEOs have many of the same characteristics traditionally associated with overconfident individuals, including lower general ability, supporting the interpretation of this measure as reflecting overconfidence.

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  • Steven N. Kaplan & Morten Sorensen & Anastasia A. Zakolyukina, 2020. "What Is CEO Overconfidence? Evidence from Executive Assessments," NBER Working Papers 27853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27853
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    5. Bernhard Kassner, 2023. "Taming Overconfident CEOs Through Stricter Financial Regulation," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 375, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
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    9. Thi Tuyet Dao, Nhung & Guney, Yilmaz & Hudson, Robert, 2023. "Managerial overconfidence and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from primary and secondary data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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