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Cognitive Uncertainty

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  • Benjamin Enke
  • Thomas Graeber

Abstract

This article documents the economic relevance of measuring cognitive uncertainty: people’s subjective uncertainty over their ex ante utility-maximizing decision. In a series of experiments on choice under risk, the formation of beliefs, and forecasts of economic variables, we show that cognitive uncertainty predicts various systematic biases in economic decisions. When people are cognitively uncertain—either endogenously or because the problem is designed to be complex—their decisions are heavily attenuated functions of objective probabilities, which gives rise to average behavior that is regressive to an intermediate option. This insight ties together a wide range of empirical regularities in behavioral economics that are typically viewed as distinct phenomena or even as reflecting preferences, including the probability weighting function in choice under risk; base rate insensitivity, conservatism, and sample size effects in belief updating; and predictable overoptimism and -pessimism in forecasts of economic variables. Our results offer a blueprint for how a simple measurement of cognitive uncertainty generates novel insights about what people find complex and how they respond to it.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Enke & Thomas Graeber, 2023. "Cognitive Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(4), pages 2021-2067.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:138:y:2023:i:4:p:2021-2067.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/qje/qjad025
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles, Constantin & Frydman, Cary & Kilic, Mete, 2024. "Insensitive investors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120788, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Davide Pace & Taisuke Imai & Peter Schwardmann & Joel van der Weele, 2023. "Uncertainty about Carbon Impact and the Willingness to Avoid CO2 Emissions," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 470, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    3. Davide D. Pace & Taisuke Imai & Peter Schwardmann & Joël J. van der Weele, 2023. "Uncertainty about Carbon Impact and the Willingness to Avoid CO2 Emissions," ISER Discussion Paper 1227, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

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