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Comparison between the probability distribution of returns in the Heston model and empirical data for stock indexes

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  • Silva, A.Christian
  • Yakovenko, Victor M.

Abstract

We compare the probability distribution of returns for the three major stock-market indexes (Nasdaq, S&P500, and Dow-Jones) with an analytical formula recently derived by Drăgulescu and Yakovenko for the Heston model with stochastic variance. For the period of 1982–1999, we find a very good agreement between the theory and the data for a wide range of time lags from 1 to 250 days. On the other hand, deviations start to appear when the data for 2000–2002 are included. We interpret this as a statistical evidence of the major change in the market from a positive growth rate in 1980s and 1990s to a negative rate in 2000s.

Suggested Citation

  • Silva, A.Christian & Yakovenko, Victor M., 2003. "Comparison between the probability distribution of returns in the Heston model and empirical data for stock indexes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 303-310.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:324:y:2003:i:1:p:303-310
    DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01903-9
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Göncü, Ahmet & Karahan, Mehmet Oğuz & Kuzubaş, Tolga Umut, 2016. "A comparative goodness-of-fit analysis of distributions of some Lévy processes and Heston model to stock index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 69-83.
    2. Ralf Remer & Reinhard Mahnke, 2004. "Application of the heston and hull-white models to german dax data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 685-693.
    3. Hosseiny, Ali, 2017. "A geometrical imaging of the real gap between economies of China and the United States," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 151-161.
    4. Dong, Yang & Wen, Shu-hui & Hu, Xiao-bing & Li, Jiang-Cheng, 2020. "Stochastic resonance of drawdown risk in energy market prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    5. Zhong, Guang-Yan & Li, Jiang-Cheng & Jiang, George J. & Li, Hai-Feng & Tao, Hui-Ming, 2018. "The time delay restraining the herd behavior with Bayesian approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 335-346.
    6. Gilles Daniel & Nathan Joseph & David Bree, 2005. "Stochastic volatility and the goodness-of-fit of the Heston model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 199-211.
    7. Leng, Na & Li, Jiang-Cheng, 2020. "Forecasting the crude oil prices based on Econophysics and Bayesian approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 554(C).
    8. Joshua Aurand & Yu-Jui Huang, 2019. "Epstein-Zin Utility Maximization on a Random Horizon," Papers 1903.08782, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    9. Dolgov, Urij, 2015. "Calibration of Heston's stochastic volatility model to an empirical density using a genetic algorithm," Forschung am ivwKöln 3/2015, Technische Hochschule Köln – University of Applied Sciences, Institute for Insurance Studies.
    10. Kleinert, H. & Chen, X.J., 2007. "Boltzmann distribution and market temperature," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(2), pages 513-518.
    11. Bernardo Spagnolo & Davide Valenti, 2008. "Volatility Effects on the Escape Time in Financial Market Models," Papers 0810.1625, arXiv.org.
    12. Buchbinder, G.L. & Chistilin, K.M., 2007. "Multiple time scales and the empirical models for stochastic volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 168-178.
    13. López Martín, María del Mar & García, Catalina García & García Pérez, José, 2012. "Treatment of kurtosis in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(5), pages 2032-2045.

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