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An Empirical Examination of the Variance-Gamma Model for Foreign Currency Options

Author

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  • Elton A. Daal

    (University of New Orleans)

  • Dilip B. Madan

    (University of Maryland)

Abstract

We apply the variance-gamma (VG) option-pricing model to currency options. The model is a pure infinite-activity jump model. We examine whether and to what extent this new model can improve the pricing quality for currency options over the existing modified Black-Scholes model and the Merton jump-diffusion (JD) model. We find that the VG model yields better out-of-sample pricing performance than the modified Black-Scholes model or the JD model. In addition, a cross-entropy analysis shows that the VG model is more consistent with the general criterion of utility maximization and optimal portfolio selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Elton A. Daal & Dilip B. Madan, 2005. "An Empirical Examination of the Variance-Gamma Model for Foreign Currency Options," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2121-2152, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:78:y:2005:i:6:p:2121-2152
    DOI: 10.1086/497039
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    Cited by:

    1. Vladimir K. Kaishev & Dimitrina S. Dimitrova, 2009. "Dirichlet Bridge Sampling for the Variance Gamma Process: Pricing Path-Dependent Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 483-496, March.
    2. Göncü, Ahmet & Karahan, Mehmet Oğuz & Kuzubaş, Tolga Umut, 2016. "A comparative goodness-of-fit analysis of distributions of some Lévy processes and Heston model to stock index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 69-83.
    3. Roman V. Ivanov, 2018. "A Credit-Risk Valuation under the Variance-Gamma Asset Return," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-25, May.
    4. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "Stochastic skew in currency options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 213-247, October.
    5. Oguzhan Cepni & Ahmet Goncu & Mehmet Oguz Karahan & Tolga Umut Kuzubas, 2013. "Goodness-of-fit of the Heston, Variance-Gamma and Normal-Inverse Gaussian Models," Working Papers 2013/16, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    6. Claudia Yeap & Simon S Kwok & S T Boris Choy, 2018. "A Flexible Generalized Hyperbolic Option Pricing Model and Its Special Cases," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 425-460.
    7. Yeap, Claudia & Kwok, Simon S. & Choy, S. T. Boris, 2016. "A Flexible Generalised Hyperbolic Option Pricing Model and its Special Cases," Working Papers 2016-14, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    8. Roman V. Ivanov & Katsunori Ano, 2016. "On exact pricing of FX options in multivariate time-changed Lévy models," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 201-216, October.
    9. Todorov, Viktor & Tauchen, George, 2010. "Activity signature functions for high-frequency data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 125-138, February.
    10. Hatem Ben‐Ameur & Rim Chérif & Bruno Rémillard, 2020. "Dynamic programming for valuing American options under a variance‐gamma process," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1548-1561, October.
    11. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "Theory and evidence on the dynamic interactions between sovereign credit default swaps and currency options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2383-2403, August.
    12. Ammann, Manuel & Buesser, Ralf, 2013. "Variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 16-32.
    13. Maciej Wysocki & Robert 'Slepaczuk, 2024. "Construction and Hedging of Equity Index Options Portfolios," Papers 2407.13908, arXiv.org.
    14. Salem, Marwa Belhaj & Fouladirad, Mitra & Deloux, Estelle, 2022. "Variance Gamma process as degradation model for prognosis and imperfect maintenance of centrifugal pumps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    15. Ivanov Roman V., 2018. "On risk measuring in the variance-gamma model," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 35(1-2), pages 23-33, January.
    16. Gian P. Cervellera & Marco P. Tucci, 2014. "A note on the estimation of a Gamma-Variance process: Learning from a failure," Department of Economics University of Siena 702, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    17. Xing Yu & Yang Xiaoping, 2016. "Equilibrium pricing of currency options under a discontinuous model in a two-country economy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 185-198, April.
    18. Ammann, Manuel & Buesser, Ralf, 2013. "Variance Risk Premiums in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1304, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    19. Gian P. Cervellera & Marco P. Tucci, 2017. "A note on the Estimation of a Gamma-Variance Process: Learning from a Failure," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 363-385, March.
    20. Roman V. Ivanov, 2018. "Option Pricing In The Variance-Gamma Model Under The Drift Jump," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(04), pages 1-19, June.
    21. Roman V. Ivanov, 2023. "The Semi-Hyperbolic Distribution and Its Applications," Stats, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-21, October.
    22. Ahmet Göncü & Mehmet Oguz Karahan & Tolga Umut Kuzubas, 2013. "Fitting the Variance-Gamma Model: A Goodness-of-Fit Check for Emerging Markets," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 1-10.
    23. Olesia Verchenko, 2011. "Testing option pricing models: complete and incomplete markets," Discussion Papers 38, Kyiv School of Economics.
    24. Göncü, Ahmet & Yang, Hao, 2016. "Variance-Gamma and Normal-Inverse Gaussian models: Goodness-of-fit to Chinese high-frequency index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 279-292.

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