IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/uts/finphd/4-2013.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Modeling Diversified Equity Indices

Author

Listed:
  • Renata Rendek

Abstract

The objective of this thesis is to study and model the dynamics of aggregate wealth, that is, the dynamics of the market capitalization weighted world stock index in different currency denominations. In order for the considered model to be valid over long time periods, it turns out that it needs to be formulated in a general financial modeling framework, the benchmark approach. In order to visualize and test the proposed aggregate wealth dynamics, exact and almost exact simulation techniques for multi-dimensional stochastic processes have been developed. Moreover, the model specification is preceded by a detailed study of the distribution of log-returns of world stock indices in different currency denominations. Various types of world equity indices are constructed and systematically studied, in particular, equi-weighted indices. When the number of constituents is increasing and the given investment universe is well securitized the Naive Diversification Theorem states that a sequence of equi-weighted indices approximates the growth optimal portfolio, which is also the numeraire portfolio. Finally, by conjecturing for the normalized world stock index the dynamics of a time transformed square root process, and by establishing a list of stylized empirical facts, a two-component index model has been proposed. This model is very parsimonious and driven only by the non-diversifiable risk of the market. Via almost exact simulation this model is shown to reflect well all listed empirical stylized facts and is difficult to falsify.

Suggested Citation

  • Renata Rendek, 2013. "Modeling Diversified Equity Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4-2013, January-A.
  • Handle: RePEc:uts:finphd:4-2013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/bitstream/10453/23396/5/02whole.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeff Fleming & Barbara Ostdiek & Robert E. Whaley, 1995. "Predicting stock market volatility: A new measure," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 265-302, May.
    2. Mark Loewenstein & Gregory A. Willard, 2000. "Local martingales, arbitrage, and viability," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 16(1), pages 135-161.
    3. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2007. "Empirical Evidence on Student-t Log-Returns of Diversified World Stock Indices," Research Paper Series 194, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    5. Katja Ignatieva & Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2010. "Using Dynamic Copulae for Modeling Dependency in Currency Denominations of a Diversifed World Stock Index," Research Paper Series 284, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Henry Allen Latane, 1959. "Criteria for Choice Among Risky Ventures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 144-144.
    7. Frahm, Gabriel & Junker, Markus & Szimayer, Alexander, 2003. "Elliptical copulas: applicability and limitations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 275-286, July.
    8. W. Breymann & A. Dias & P. Embrechts, 2003. "Dependence structures for multivariate high-frequency data in finance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-14.
    9. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Eckhard Platen, 2004. "A Benchmark Framework for Risk Management," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Jiro Akahori & Shigeyoshi Ogawa & Shinzo Watanabe (ed.), Stochastic Processes And Applications To Mathematical Finance, chapter 15, pages 305-335, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Roger Lord & Remmert Koekkoek & Dick Van Dijk, 2010. "A comparison of biased simulation schemes for stochastic volatility models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 177-194.
    12. Blattberg, Robert C & Gonedes, Nicholas J, 1974. "A Comparison of the Stable and Student Distributions as Statistical Models for Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 244-280, April.
    13. Eckhard Platen, 2011. "A Benchmark Approach to Investing and Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 28, pages 409-426, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2009. "Simulation of Diversified Portfolios in a Continuous Financial Market," Research Paper Series 264, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    15. Svetlozar Rachev & Seonkoo Han, 2000. "Portfolio management with stable distributions," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 51(2), pages 341-352, April.
    16. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman & Dilip Madan & Marc Yor, 2004. "From local volatility to local Levy models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(5), pages 581-588.
    18. Rubinstein, Mark, 1976. "The Strong Case for the Generalized Logarithmic Utility Model as the Premier Model of Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 551-571, May.
    19. Joe, H., 1993. "Parametric Families of Multivariate Distributions with Given Margins," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 262-282, August.
    20. Griselda Deelstra & Freddy Delbaen, 1998. "Convergence of discretised stochastic interest rate: processes with stochastic drift term," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7584, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    21. Eckhard Platen, 2001. "Arbitrage in Continuous Complete Markets," Research Paper Series 72, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    22. Madan, Dilip B & Seneta, Eugene, 1990. "The Variance Gamma (V.G.) Model for Share Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 511-524, October.
    23. Hakansson, Nils H., 1971. "Capital Growth and the Mean-Variance Approach to Portfolio Selection," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 517-557, January.
    24. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    25. Fischer Paul & Platen Eckhard, 1999. "Applications of the balanced method to stochastic differential equations in filtering," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 19-38, December.
    26. Damir Filipović & Eckhard Platen, 2009. "Consistent Market Extensions Under The Benchmark Approach," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 41-52, January.
    27. Eckhard Platen, 2006. "A benchmark approach to asset management," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(6), pages 390-405, March.
    28. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942.
    29. Truc Le & Eckhard Platen, 2006. "Approximating the Growth Optimal Portfolio with a Diversified World Stock Index," Research Paper Series 180, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    30. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    31. Ke Du & Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "Modeling of Oil Prices," Research Paper Series 321, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    32. G. Deelstra & F. Delbaen, 1998. "Convergence of discretized stochastic (interest rate) processes with stochastic drift term," Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 77-84, March.
    33. G. N. Milstein & Eckhard Platen & H. Schurz, 1998. "Balanced Implicit Methods for Stiff Stochastic Systems," Published Paper Series 1998-1, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    34. Eckhard Platen & Gerhard Stahl, 2003. "A Structure for General and Specific Market Risk," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 355-373, September.
    35. Fang, Hong-Bin & Fang, Kai-Tai & Kotz, Samuel, 2002. "The Meta-elliptical Distributions with Given Marginals," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-16, July.
    36. Harry M. Markowitz, 2011. "Investment for the Long Run: New Evidence for an Old Rule," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 35, pages 495-508, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    37. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    38. Eckhard Platen, 2004. "Diversified Portfolios with Jumps in a Benchmark Framework," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, March.
    39. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1448 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Platen, Eckhard, 2000. "A minimal financial market model," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,91, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    41. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    42. Dirk Becherer, 2001. "The numeraire portfolio for unbounded semimartingales," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 327-341.
    43. Bühlmann, Hans & Platen, Eckhard, 2003. "A Discrete Time Benchmark Approach for Insurance and Finance," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 153-172, November.
    44. Mark Broadie & Özgür Kaya, 2006. "Exact Simulation of Stochastic Volatility and Other Affine Jump Diffusion Processes," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 54(2), pages 217-231, April.
    45. Kahl Christian & Schurz Henri, 2006. "Balanced Milstein Methods for Ordinary SDEs," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 143-170, April.
    46. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    47. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
    48. Alan L. Lewis, 2000. "Option Valuation under Stochastic Volatility," Option Valuation under Stochastic Volatility, Finance Press, number ovsv, December.
    49. Praetz, Peter D, 1972. "The Distribution of Share Price Changes," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(1), pages 49-55, January.
    50. P. E. Kloeden & Eckhard Platen, 1992. "Higher-order implicit strong numerical schemes for stochastic differential equations," Published Paper Series 1992-1, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    51. Long, John Jr., 1990. "The numeraire portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 29-69, July.
    52. Eckhard Platen & Lei Shi, 2008. "On the Numerical Stability of Simulation Methods for SDES," Research Paper Series 234, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    53. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    54. Nicola Bruti-Liberati & Eckhard Platen, 2008. "Strong Predictor-Corrector Euler Methods for Stochastic Differential Equations," Research Paper Series 222, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    55. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
    56. Peter Carr & Jian Sun, 2007. "A new approach for option pricing under stochastic volatility," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 87-150, May.
    57. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    58. Helyette Geman & Dilip B. Madan & Marc Yor, 2001. "Asset Prices Are Brownian Motion: Only In Business Time," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Marco Avellaneda (ed.), Quantitative Analysis In Financial Markets Collected Papers of the New York University Mathematical Finance Seminar(Volume II), chapter 4, pages 103-146, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    59. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "Approximating the numéraire portfolio by naive diversification," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(1), pages 34-50, February.
    60. Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
    61. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    62. Ling Hu, 2006. "Dependence patterns across financial markets: a mixed copula approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 717-729.
    63. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2006. "On the Distributional Characterization of Daily Log-Returns of a World Stock Index," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 19-38.
    64. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2009. "Exact Scenario Simulation for Selected Multi-dimensional Stochastic Processes," Research Paper Series 259, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    65. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "The Affine Nature of Aggregate Wealth Dynamics," Research Paper Series 322, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    66. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2009. "Quasi-exact Approximation of Hidden Markov Chain Filters," Research Paper Series 258, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    67. Thomas M. Cover, 1991. "Universal Portfolios," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, January.
    68. Constantinos Kardaras & Eckhard Platen, 2008. "On Financial Markets where only Buy-And-Hold Trading is Possible," Research Paper Series 213, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mathias Barkhagen & Jörgen Blomvall & Eckhard Platen, 2016. "Recovering the real-world density and liquidity premia from option data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 1147-1164, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Renata Rendek, 2013. "Modeling Diversified Equity Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 23, July-Dece.
    2. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "The Affine Nature of Aggregate Wealth Dynamics," Research Paper Series 322, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    3. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "Approximating the numéraire portfolio by naive diversification," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(1), pages 34-50, February.
    4. Kevin John Fergusson, 2018. "Less-Expensive Pricing and Hedging of Extreme-Maturity Interest Rate Derivatives and Equity Index Options Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2018, January-A.
    5. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2006. "On the Distributional Characterization of Daily Log-Returns of a World Stock Index," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 19-38.
    6. Hardy Hulley, 2009. "Strict Local Martingales in Continuous Financial Market Models," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 19, July-Dece.
    7. Hardy Hulley, 2009. "Strict Local Martingales in Continuous Financial Market Models," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2009, January-A.
    8. Eckhard Platen, 2011. "A Benchmark Approach to Investing and Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 28, pages 409-426, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2013, January-A.
    10. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2017. "Less-Expensive Valuation of Long Term Annuities Linked to Mortality, Cash and Equity," Papers 1711.02808, arXiv.org.
    11. repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2009. "Simulation of Diversified Portfolios in a Continuous Financial Market," Research Paper Series 264, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    13. Giulia Di Nunno & Kk{e}stutis Kubilius & Yuliya Mishura & Anton Yurchenko-Tytarenko, 2023. "From constant to rough: A survey of continuous volatility modeling," Papers 2309.01033, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    14. Katja Ignatieva & Eckhard Platen, 2010. "Modelling Co-movements and Tail Dependency in the International Stock Market via Copulae," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 17(3), pages 261-302, September.
    15. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2007. "Empirical Evidence on Student-t Log-Returns of Diversified World Stock Indices," Research Paper Series 194, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    16. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2, July-Dece.
    17. Katja Ignatieva & Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2010. "Using Dynamic Copulae for Modeling Dependency in Currency Denominations of a Diversifed World Stock Index," Research Paper Series 284, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    18. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2019. "Dynamics of a Well-Diversified Equity Index," Research Paper Series 398, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    19. Fergusson, Kevin, 2020. "Less-Expensive Valuation And Reserving Of Long-Dated Variable Annuities When Interest Rates And Mortality Rates Are Stochastic," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 381-417, May.
    20. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2013. "Real World Pricing of Long Term Cash-Linked Annuities and Equity-Linked Annuities with Cash-Linked Guarantees," Research Paper Series 338, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    21. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2009. "Exact Scenario Simulation for Selected Multi-dimensional Stochastic Processes," Research Paper Series 259, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uts:finphd:4-2013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Duncan Ford (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfutsau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.