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Modeling of measles epidemic with optimized fractional order under Caputo differential operator

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  • Qureshi, Sania
  • Jan, Rashid

Abstract

Memory is an important characteristic of an epidemic. One of such memory dependent and highly contagious viral diseases is measles that is also responsible for more than 140,000 deaths in 2018 in various regions of Asia and Africa. In order to better understand the transmission dynamics of measles, we have developed a new epidemiological model while considering both integer and fractional order operators and presented comparison. The Caputo fractional model has a unique solution with the positively invariant region. On the basis of basic reproduction number R0, stability analysis is discussed and sensitivity of parameters is investigated using PRCC global technique. Not only parameters but fractional order χ is also optimized via nonlinear least-squares approach with availability of statistical data obtained from WHO. Various simulations in terms of time series plots, 3D meshes and contours are carried out to observe effects of parameters on dynamics of the epidemic wherein it is said to be persistent for χ→0 demonstrating the role being played by Caputo fractional derivative towards measles dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Qureshi, Sania & Jan, Rashid, 2021. "Modeling of measles epidemic with optimized fractional order under Caputo differential operator," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:145:y:2021:i:c:s0960077921001181
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110766
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    4. Qureshi, Sania & Yusuf, Abdullahi, 2019. "Modeling chickenpox disease with fractional derivatives: From caputo to atangana-baleanu," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 111-118.
    5. Qureshi, Sania, 2020. "Real life application of Caputo fractional derivative for measles epidemiological autonomous dynamical system," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Baleanu, Dumitru & Jajarmi, Amin & Mohammadi, Hakimeh & Rezapour, Shahram, 2020. "A new study on the mathematical modelling of human liver with Caputo–Fabrizio fractional derivative," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Qureshi, Sania & Atangana, Abdon, 2019. "Mathematical analysis of dengue fever outbreak by novel fractional operators with field data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 526(C).
    8. Qureshi, Sania & Memon, Zaib-un-Nisa, 2020. "Monotonically decreasing behavior of measles epidemic well captured by Atangana–Baleanu–Caputo fractional operator under real measles data of Pakistan," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Yasmin, Humaira, 2022. "Effect of vaccination on non-integer dynamics of pneumococcal pneumonia infection," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Alfifi, H.Y., 2022. "Stability analysis for Schnakenberg reaction-diffusion model with gene expression time delay," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Farman, Muhammad & Xu, Changjin & Shehzad, Aamir & Akgul, Ali, 2024. "Modeling and dynamics of measles via fractional differential operator of singular and non-singular kernels," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 461-488.
    4. Shah Hussain & Elissa Nadia Madi & Naveed Iqbal & Thongchai Botmart & Yeliz Karaca & Wael W. Mohammed, 2021. "Fractional Dynamics of Vector-Borne Infection with Sexual Transmission Rate and Vaccination," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Shah, Kamal & Arfan, Muhammad & Ullah, Aman & Al-Mdallal, Qasem & Ansari, Khursheed J. & Abdeljawad, Thabet, 2022. "Computational study on the dynamics of fractional order differential equations with applications," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. El-Mesady, A. & Elsonbaty, Amr & Adel, Waleed, 2022. "On nonlinear dynamics of a fractional order monkeypox virus model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).

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