IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0213605.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using mathematical modeling to inform health policy: A case study from voluntary medical male circumcision scale-up in eastern and southern Africa and proposed framework for success

Author

Listed:
  • Emmanuel Njeuhmeli
  • Melissa Schnure
  • Andrea Vazzano
  • Elizabeth Gold
  • Peter Stegman
  • Katharine Kripke
  • Michel Tchuenche
  • Lori Bollinger
  • Steven Forsythe
  • Catherine Hankins

Abstract

Background: Modeling contributes to health program planning by allowing users to estimate future outcomes that are otherwise difficult to evaluate. However, modeling results are often not easily translated into practical policies. This paper examines the barriers and enabling factors that can allow models to better inform health decision-making. Description: The Decision Makers’ Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) and its successor, DMPPT 2, are illustrative examples of modeling tools that have been used to inform health policy. Their use underpinned Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) scale-up for HIV prevention in southern and eastern Africa. Both examine the impact and cost-effectiveness of VMMC scale-up, with DMPPT used initially in global advocacy and DMPPT 2 then providing VMMC coverage estimates by client age and subnational region for use in country-specific program planning. Their application involved three essential steps: identifying and engaging a wide array of stakeholders from the outset, reaching consensus on key assumptions and analysis plans, and convening data validation meetings with critical stakeholders. The subsequent DMPPT 2 Online is a user-friendly tool for in-country modeling analyses and continuous program planning and monitoring. Lessons learned: Through three iterations of the DMPPT applied to VMMC, a comprehensive framework with six steps was identified: (1) identify a champion, (2) engage stakeholders early and often, (3) encourage consensus, (4) customize analyses, (5), build capacity, and (6) establish a plan for sustainability. This framework could be successfully adapted to other HIV prevention programs to translate modeling results to policy and programming. Conclusions: Models can be used to mobilize support, strategically plan, and monitor key programmatic elements, but they can also help inform policy environments in which programs are conceptualized and implemented to achieve results. The ways in which modeling has informed VMMC programs and policy may be applicable to an array of other health interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Njeuhmeli & Melissa Schnure & Andrea Vazzano & Elizabeth Gold & Peter Stegman & Katharine Kripke & Michel Tchuenche & Lori Bollinger & Steven Forsythe & Catherine Hankins, 2019. "Using mathematical modeling to inform health policy: A case study from voluntary medical male circumcision scale-up in eastern and southern Africa and proposed framework for success," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-15, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0213605
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0213605
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0213605
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0213605&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0213605?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klein, Eili & Laxminarayan, Ramanan & Smith, David L. & Gilligan, Christopher A., 2007. "Economic incentives and mathematical models of disease," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(5), pages 707-732, October.
    2. Katharine Kripke & Velephi Okello & Vusi Maziya & Wendy Benzerga & Munamato Mirira & Elizabeth Gold & Melissa Schnure & Sema Sgaier & Delivette Castor & Jason Reed & Emmanuel Njeuhmeli, 2016. "Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in Swaziland: Modeling the Impact of Age Targeting," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-10, July.
    3. Catherine Hankins & Mitchell Warren & Emmanuel Njeuhmeli, 2016. "Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention: New Mathematical Models for Strategic Demand Creation Prioritizing Subpopulations by Age and Geography," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-9, October.
    4. Glasgow, R.E. & Lichtenstein, E. & Marcus, A.C., 2003. "Why Don't We See More Translation of Health Promotion Research to Practice? Rethinking the Efficacy-to-Effectiveness Transition," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 93(8), pages 1261-1267.
    5. Katharine Kripke & Frank Chimbwandira & Zebedee Mwandi & Faustin Matchere & Melissa Schnure & Jason Reed & Delivette Castor & Sema Sgaier & Emmanuel Njeuhmeli, 2016. "Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in Malawi: Modeling the Impact and Cost of Focusing the Program by Client Age and Geography," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-11, July.
    6. Katharine Kripke & Marjorie Opuni & Melissa Schnure & Sema Sgaier & Delivette Castor & Jason Reed & Emmanuel Njeuhmeli & John Stover, 2016. "Age Targeting of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Programs Using the Decision Makers’ Program Planning Toolkit (DMPPT) 2.0," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-17, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qureshi, Sania & Jan, Rashid, 2021. "Modeling of measles epidemic with optimized fractional order under Caputo differential operator," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan Dent & Nuno Gaspar & Emmanuel Njeuhmeli & Katharine Kripke, 2019. "Age targeting and scale-up of voluntary medical male circumcision in Mozambique," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-14, February.
    2. Katharine Kripke & Karin Hatzold & Owen Mugurungi & Gertrude Ncube & Sinokuthemba Xaba & Elizabeth Gold & Kim Seifert Ahanda & Natalie Kruse-Levy & Emmanuel Njeuhmeli, 2016. "Modeling Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Increased Efforts to Attract Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Clients Ages 20–29 in Zimbabwe," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, October.
    3. Katharine Kripke & Marjorie Opuni & Melissa Schnure & Sema Sgaier & Delivette Castor & Jason Reed & Emmanuel Njeuhmeli & John Stover, 2016. "Age Targeting of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Programs Using the Decision Makers’ Program Planning Toolkit (DMPPT) 2.0," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Maria Ganczak & Marcin Korzeń & Maciej Olszewski, 2017. "Attitudes, Beliefs and Predictors of Male Circumcision Promotion among Medical University Students in a Traditionally Non-Circumcising Region," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, September.
    5. Gonot-Schoupinsky, Freda N. & Garip, Gulcan, 2019. "A flexible framework for planning and evaluating early-stage health interventions: FRAME-IT," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Finch, Caroline F & Day, Lesley & Donaldson, Alex & Segal, Leonie & Harrison, James E, 2009. "Determining policy-relevant formats for the presentation of falls research evidence," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(2-3), pages 207-213, December.
    7. Wilson, Nicholas, 2021. "Why is ageing associated with lower adoption of new technologies? Evidence from voluntary medical male circumcision and a structural model," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    8. Saria Hassan & Alexis Cooke & Haneefa Saleem & Dorothy Mushi & Jessie Mbwambo & Barrot H. Lambdin, 2019. "Evaluating the Integrated Methadone and Anti-Retroviral Therapy Strategy in Tanzania Using the RE-AIM Framework," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-15, February.
    9. Emmanuel Njeuhmeli & Peter Stegman & Katharine Kripke & Owen Mugurungi & Gertrude Ncube & Sinokuthemba Xaba & Karin Hatzold & Alice Christensen & John Stover, 2016. "Modeling Costs and Impacts of Introducing Early Infant Male Circumcision for Long-Term Sustainability of the Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Program," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-13, July.
    10. Estabrooks, Carole A. & Norton, Peter & Birdsell, Judy M. & Newton, Mandi S. & Adewale, Adeniyi J. & Thornley, Richard, 2008. "Knowledge translation and research careers: Mode I and Mode II activity among health researchers," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6-7), pages 1066-1078, July.
    11. Natalie Bradford & Shirley Chambers & Adrienne Hudson & Jacqui Jauncey‐Cooke & Robyn Penny & Carol Windsor & Patsy Yates, 2019. "Evaluation frameworks in health services: An integrative review of use, attributes and elements," Journal of Clinical Nursing, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(13-14), pages 2486-2498, July.
    12. Jeremy Greenwood & Philipp Kircher & Cezar Santos & Michèle Tertilt, 2019. "An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1081-1113, July.
    13. Chen, Huey T., 2010. "The bottom-up approach to integrative validity: A new perspective for program evaluation," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 205-214, August.
    14. Rieckmann, Traci R. & Kovas, Anne E. & Cassidy, Elaine F. & McCarty, Dennis, 2011. "Employing policy and purchasing levers to increase the use of evidence-based practices in community-based substance abuse treatment settings: Reports from single state authorities," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 366-374, November.
    15. Elijah Odoyo-June & Stephanie Davis & Nandi Owuor & Catey Laube & Jonesmus Wambua & Paul Musingila & Peter W Young & Appolonia Aoko & Kawango Agot & Rachael Joseph & Zebedee Mwandi & Vincent Ojiambo &, 2021. "Prevalence of male circumcision in four culturally non-circumcising counties in western Kenya after 10 years of program implementation from 2008 to 2019," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-16, July.
    16. Holly Blake & Betsy Lai & Emil Coman & Jonathan Houdmont & Amanda Griffiths, 2019. "Move-It: A Cluster-Randomised Digital Worksite Exercise Intervention in China: Outcome and Process Evaluation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-23, September.
    17. Tabia Henry Akintobi & Payam Sheikhattari & Emma Shaffer & Christina L. Evans & Kathryn L. Braun & Angela U. Sy & Bibiana Mancera & Adriana Campa & Stephania T. Miller & Daniel Sarpong & Rhonda Hollid, 2021. "Community Engagement Practices at Research Centers in U.S. Minority Institutions: Priority Populations and Innovative Approaches to Advancing Health Disparities Research," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-14, June.
    18. Bradley MacDonald & Xanne Janssen & Alison Kirk & Mhairi Patience & Ann-Marie Gibson, 2018. "An Integrative, Systematic Review Exploring the Research, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance of Interventions to Reduce Sedentary Behaviour in Office Workers," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-29, December.
    19. Katrien De Cocker & Greet Cardon & Jason A. Bennie & Tracy Kolbe-Alexander & Femke De Meester & Corneel Vandelanotte, 2018. "From Evidence-Based Research to Practice-Based Evidence: Disseminating a Web-Based Computer-Tailored Workplace Sitting Intervention through a Health Promotion Organisation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-11, May.
    20. Frank Puga & Kathleen R. Stevens & Darpan I. Patel, 2013. "Adopting Best Practices from Team Science in a Healthcare Improvement Research Network: The Impact on Dissemination and Implementation," Nursing Research and Practice, Hindawi, vol. 2013, pages 1-7, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0213605. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.