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Gompertz model in COVID-19 spreading simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Pelinovsky, E.
  • Kokoulina, M.
  • Epifanova, A.
  • Kurkin, A.
  • Kurkina, O.
  • Tang, M.
  • Macau, E.
  • Kirillin, M.

Abstract

The paper reports on application of the Gompertz model to describe the growth dynamics of COVID-19 cases during the first wave of the pandemic in different countries. Modeling has been performed for 23 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Great Britain, Germany, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Canada, China, the Netherlands, Norway, Serbia, Turkey, France, Czech Republic, Switzerland, South Korea, USA, Mexico, and Japan. The model parameters are determined by regression analysis based on official World Health Organization data available for these countries. The comparison of the predictions given by the Gompertz model and the simple logistic model (i.e., Verhulst model) is performed allowing to conclude on the higher accuracy of the Gompertz model.

Suggested Citation

  • Pelinovsky, E. & Kokoulina, M. & Epifanova, A. & Kurkin, A. & Kurkina, O. & Tang, M. & Macau, E. & Kirillin, M., 2022. "Gompertz model in COVID-19 spreading simulation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:154:y:2022:i:c:s0960077921010535
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111699
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pelinovsky, Efim & Kurkin, Andrey & Kurkina, Oxana & Kokoulina, Maria & Epifanova, Anastasia, 2020. "Logistic equation and COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Bratati Chakraborty & Sabyasachi Bhattacharya & Ayanendranath Basu & Subhadip Bandyopadhyay & Amit Bhattacharjee, 2014. "Goodness-of-fit testing for the Gompertz growth curve model," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 72(1), pages 45-64, April.
    3. Consolini, Giuseppe & Materassi, Massimo, 2020. "A stretched logistic equation for pandemic spreading," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Paul, Ayan & Reja, Selim & Kundu, Sayani & Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Se Yoon Lee & Bowen Lei & Bani Mallick, 2020. "Estimation of COVID-19 spread curves integrating global data and borrowing information," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, July.
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