The cost of recharging infrastructure for electric vehicles in the EU in a climate neutrality context: Factors influencing investments in 2030 and 2050

The electrification of passenger cars is a cornerstone of the EU strategy to decarbonising European transport by 2050. A key step for the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) is to scale up the rollout of rechargers. The paper assesses which factors influence the investments in EU recharging infrastructure in a context of ambitious EV deployment projected under the “Fitfor55” policy package of the European Commission. We use an energy-demand method that includes assumptions on charging requirements of different EV types, the structure of the charging fleet, the survival probability and learning rates of the rechargers and conduct a sensitivity analysis to quantify their impact on investments. The projected electricity share in passenger cars is about 4.5% (65 TWh) and the required infrastructure ranges between 3.2 and 4million chargers in 2030, while investments range between 8.7 and 16.2bn€ in 2021–2030. By mid-century, the electrification share of passenger cars increases to 62% (285 TWh) for which we estimate a total demand of 13.6 to 20.3million chargers and an additional 44.3 to 80.3bn€ of investments in 2031–2050. A regression analysis depicts a strong correlation between fast chargers and investment expenditures, which is particularly relevant for 2021–2030, a period, when the deployment of a fast charging network will be needed to help reduce charging times and enable the roll-out of EVs. The energy output per charging point is the second most influential factor. Other factors, while important, are found not to significantly affect system costs.