IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v183y2019icp670-682.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Two-stage stochastic optimal operation model for hydropower station based on the approximate utility function of the carryover stage

Author

Listed:
  • Tan, Qiao-feng
  • Lei, Xiao-hui
  • Wen, Xin
  • Fang, Guo-hua
  • Wang, Xu
  • Wang, Chao
  • Ji, Yi
  • Huang, Xian-feng

Abstract

Challenge remains to find the optimal carryover storage to balance the immediate and carryover utilities for long-term hydropower reservoir operation due to high uncertainties of long-term forecasts. Thus, this paper develops a two-stage stochastic optimal operation model to dynamically decide the optimal carryover storage. First, a successive iteration method based on periodic Markov characteristics of reservoir operation is proposed to obtain the approximate utility function of the carryover stage. Then, three two-stage stochastic optimal operation models based on different forecast accuracy (no forecasts, perfect forecasts, and uncertainty forecasts) are developed to guide the long-term hydropower reservoir operation. The applications shows that: 1) the back propagation neural network can approximate the utility function of the carryover stage with a high accuracy and avoid the need to predetermine the function type; 2) the approximate utility function of the carryover stage increases with the carryover storage and current inflow, and it changes gradually from a nearly linear surface to an approximate concave surface with the shift from the dry season to the flood season; 3) two-stage stochastic optimal operation models outperform the conventional operating rules and conventional optimization method in guiding the long-term hydropower operation.

Suggested Citation

  • Tan, Qiao-feng & Lei, Xiao-hui & Wen, Xin & Fang, Guo-hua & Wang, Xu & Wang, Chao & Ji, Yi & Huang, Xian-feng, 2019. "Two-stage stochastic optimal operation model for hydropower station based on the approximate utility function of the carryover stage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 670-682.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:183:y:2019:i:c:p:670-682
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.05.116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544219309983
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2019.05.116?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Mousavi & K. Ponnambalam & F. Karray, 2005. "Reservoir Operation Using a Dynamic Programming Fuzzy Rule–Based Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(5), pages 655-672, October.
    2. Chun-Tian Cheng & Wen-Chuan Wang & Dong-Mei Xu & K. Chau, 2008. "Optimizing Hydropower Reservoir Operation Using Hybrid Genetic Algorithm and Chaos," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(7), pages 895-909, July.
    3. Niu, Wen-jing & Feng, Zhong-kai & Cheng, Chun-tian, 2018. "Optimization of variable-head hydropower system operation considering power shortage aspect with quadratic programming and successive approximation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1020-1028.
    4. Feng, Zhong-kai & Niu, Wen-jing & Cheng, Chun-tian & Liao, Sheng-li, 2017. "Hydropower system operation optimization by discrete differential dynamic programming based on orthogonal experiment design," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 720-732.
    5. Rama Mehta & Sharad Jain, 2009. "Optimal Operation of a Multi-Purpose Reservoir Using Neuro-Fuzzy Technique," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(3), pages 509-529, February.
    6. V. Chandramouli & Paresh Deka, 2005. "Neural Network Based Decision Support Model for Optimal Reservoir Operation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(4), pages 447-464, August.
    7. Jiang, Zhiqiang & Li, Rongbo & Li, Anqiang & Ji, Changming, 2018. "Runoff forecast uncertainty considered load adjustment model of cascade hydropower stations and its application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 693-708.
    8. Jiang, Zhiqiang & Ji, Changming & Qin, Hui & Feng, Zhongkai, 2018. "Multi-stage progressive optimality algorithm and its application in energy storage operation chart optimization of cascade reservoirs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 309-323.
    9. Feng, Zhong-kai & Niu, Wen-jing & Wang, Sen & Cheng, Chun-tian & Jiang, Zhi-qiang & Qin, Hui & Liu, Yi, 2018. "Developing a successive linear programming model for head-sensitive hydropower system operation considering power shortage aspect," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 252-261.
    10. P. Mujumdar & B. Nirmala, 2007. "A Bayesian Stochastic Optimization Model for a Multi-Reservoir Hydropower System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(9), pages 1465-1485, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qiao-feng Tan & Guo-hua Fang & Xin Wen & Xiao-hui Lei & Xu Wang & Chao Wang & Yi Ji, 2020. "Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming for Hydropower Generation Operation Based on Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(5), pages 1589-1607, March.
    2. Tan, Qiaofeng & Wen, Xin & Sun, Yuanliang & Lei, Xiaohui & Wang, Zhenni & Qin, Guanghua, 2021. "Evaluation of the risk and benefit of the complementary operation of the large wind-photovoltaic-hydropower system considering forecast uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    3. Huang, Kangdi & Liu, Pan & Kim, Jong-Suk & Xu, Weifeng & Gong, Yu & Cheng, Qian & Zhou, Yong, 2023. "A model coupling current non-adjustable, coming adjustable and remaining stages for daily generation scheduling of a wind-solar-hydro complementary system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
    4. Ziyu Ding & Guohua Fang & Xin Wen & Qiaofeng Tan & Xiaohui Lei & Zhehua Liu & Xianfeng Huang, 2020. "Cascaded Hydropower Operation Chart Optimization Balancing Overall Ecological Benefits and Ecological Conservation in Hydrological Extremes Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(3), pages 1231-1246, February.
    5. Chaoyang Chen & Hualing Liu & Yong Xiao & Fagen Zhu & Li Ding & Fuwen Yang, 2022. "Power Generation Scheduling for a Hydro-Wind-Solar Hybrid System: A Systematic Survey and Prospect," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-31, November.
    6. He, Zhongzheng & Zhou, Jianzhong & Qin, Hui & Jia, Benjun & He, Feifei & Liu, Guangbiao & Feng, Kuaile, 2020. "A fast water level optimal control method based on two stage analysis for long term power generation scheduling of hydropower station," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    7. Li, Xiao & Liu, Pan & Cheng, Lei & Cheng, Qian & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Shitian & Zheng, Yalian, 2023. "Strategic bidding for a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system considering the profit beyond forecast time," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 277-289.
    8. Shu, Xingsheng & Ding, Wei & Peng, Yong & Wang, Ziru, 2024. "Value of long-term inflow forecast for hydropower operation: A case study in a low forecast precision region," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    9. Ding, Ziyu & Wen, Xin & Tan, Qiaofeng & Yang, Tiantian & Fang, Guohua & Lei, Xiaohui & Zhang, Yu & Wang, Hao, 2021. "A forecast-driven decision-making model for long-term operation of a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Jinwen & Chen, Cheng & Liu, Shuangquan, 2018. "A new field-levelling procedure to minimize spillages in hydropower reservoir operation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 979-985.
    2. Qiao-feng Tan & Guo-hua Fang & Xin Wen & Xiao-hui Lei & Xu Wang & Chao Wang & Yi Ji, 2020. "Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming for Hydropower Generation Operation Based on Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(5), pages 1589-1607, March.
    3. Liu, Yuan & Ji, Changming & Wang, Yi & Zhang, Yanke & Jiang, Zhiqiang & Ma, Qiumei & Hou, Xiaoning, 2023. "Effect of the quality of streamflow forecasts on the operation of cascade hydropower stations using stochastic optimization models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    4. Jin, Xiaoyu & Liu, Benxi & Liao, Shengli & Cheng, Chuntian & Li, Gang & Liu, Lingjun, 2022. "Impacts of different wind and solar power penetrations on cascade hydroplants operation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 227-244.
    5. Feng, Zhong-kai & Niu, Wen-jing & Cheng, Chun-tian, 2018. "Optimal allocation of hydropower and hybrid electricity injected from inter-regional transmission lines among multiple receiving-end power grids in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 444-452.
    6. Feng, Zhong-kai & Niu, Wen-jing & Wang, Wen-chuan & Zhou, Jian-zhong & Cheng, Chun-tian, 2019. "A mixed integer linear programming model for unit commitment of thermal plants with peak shaving operation aspect in regional power grid lack of flexible hydropower energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 618-629.
    7. Feng, Zhong-kai & Niu, Wen-jing & Cheng, Chun-tian, 2019. "China’s large-scale hydropower system: operation characteristics, modeling challenge and dimensionality reduction possibilities," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 805-818.
    8. Lisicki, Michal & Lubitz, William & Taylor, Graham W., 2016. "Optimal design and operation of Archimedes screw turbines using Bayesian optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1404-1417.
    9. Alcigeimes Celeste & Max Billib, 2010. "The Role of Spill and Evaporation in Reservoir Optimization Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(4), pages 617-628, March.
    10. Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari & Reza Morovati & Mohammad Moghadas & Shahab Araghinejad, 2015. "Optimum Operation of Reservoir Using Two Evolutionary Algorithms: Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA) and Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm (COA)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3749-3769, August.
    11. Zhongzheng He & Chao Wang & Yongqiang Wang & Hairong Zhang & Heng Yin, 2022. "An Efficient Optimization Method for Long-term Power Generation Scheduling of Hydropower Station: Improved Dynamic Programming with a Relaxation Strategy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1481-1497, March.
    12. Müller, Danny & Knoll, Christian & Gravogl, Georg & Jordan, Christian & Eitenberger, Elisabeth & Friedbacher, Gernot & Artner, Werner & Welch, Jan M. & Werner, Andreas & Harasek, Michael & Miletich, R, 2021. "Medium-temperature thermochemical energy storage with transition metal ammoniates – A systematic material comparison," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    13. Deepti Rani & Maria Moreira, 2010. "Simulation–Optimization Modeling: A Survey and Potential Application in Reservoir Systems Operation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(6), pages 1107-1138, April.
    14. Arvin Samadi-koucheksaraee & Iman Ahmadianfar & Omid Bozorg-Haddad & Seyed Amin Asghari-pari, 2019. "Gradient Evolution Optimization Algorithm to Optimize Reservoir Operation Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(2), pages 603-625, January.
    15. Leila Ostadrahimi & Miguel Mariño & Abbas Afshar, 2012. "Multi-reservoir Operation Rules: Multi-swarm PSO-based Optimization Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(2), pages 407-427, January.
    16. Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Cheng, Lei & Zhang, Jingwen, 2019. "Hydropower reservoir reoperation to adapt to large-scale photovoltaic power generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 268-279.
    17. Wu, Xinyu & Wu, Yiyang & Cheng, Xilong & Cheng, Chuntian & Li, Zehong & Wu, Yongqi, 2023. "A mixed-integer linear programming model for hydro unit commitment considering operation constraint priorities," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 507-520.
    18. Maritza Arganis-Juárez & Rosalva Mendoza-Ramírez & Ramón Domínguez-Mora & Alma Hernández-Ruiz & Moisés Berezowsky-Verduzco, 2013. "Influence of Guiding Curves in the Optimal Management of a Hydropower System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 4989-5001, December.
    19. He, Zhongzheng & Zhou, Jianzhong & Qin, Hui & Jia, Benjun & He, Feifei & Liu, Guangbiao & Feng, Kuaile, 2020. "A fast water level optimal control method based on two stage analysis for long term power generation scheduling of hydropower station," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    20. Zhiqiang Jiang & Yaqi Qiao & Yuyun Chen & Changming Ji, 2018. "A New Reservoir Operation Chart Drawing Method Based on Dynamic Programming," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:183:y:2019:i:c:p:670-682. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.