IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v216y2018icp504-520.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation of demand growth scenarios in the Colombian electricity market: An integration of system dynamics and dynamic systems

Author

Listed:
  • Morcillo, José D.
  • Franco, Carlos J.
  • Angulo, Fabiola

Abstract

Modeling and simulation of electricity markets have increasingly involved the use of a system dynamics (SD) approach. Accordingly, the resulting dynamic hypothesis and the stock-flow structures are represented and simulated using softwares such as Stella, Powersim, iThink, or Vensim. However, SD models can be exploited even more, of which the investigation of signals in the time domain or the sensitivity analysis is just a small part of the study. Since SD models are mathematical objects, they deserve an analytical or numerical study using tools provided by the dynamic systems (DS) methodology. Therefore, this paper not only studies the dynamic hypothesis or the stock-flow structure of an electricity market model in the classical form, but also uses its inner mathematical object to provide a deeper insight into the system. Using MATLAB/Simulink®, the system is evaluated from a different approach not yet reported in the literature. The combination of the SD and DS methodologies can open the door to a new and alternative method of analysis for electricity market models and even for any SD model. In fact, this paper demonstrates that with this methodologies combination, more detailed analysis strategies and novel insights of the SD models can be developed, which can be easily exploited by policy makers to suggest improvements in regulations or market structures. Moreover, considering that the energy market is evolving, and a series of macro and microstructural changes are impacting demand, we consider as an example a simplified version of the Colombian electricity market to report a detailed description of its dynamics under a broad range of growth rate of demand (GRD) scenarios. Our study, inspired by the bifurcation and control theory of DS, primarily shows that Colombia is in dire need of a new capacity before 2020 to avoid rationing events expected to occur in the upcoming years.

Suggested Citation

  • Morcillo, José D. & Franco, Carlos J. & Angulo, Fabiola, 2018. "Simulation of demand growth scenarios in the Colombian electricity market: An integration of system dynamics and dynamic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 504-520.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:216:y:2018:i:c:p:504-520
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.02.104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261918302290
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.02.104?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ochoa, Camila & van Ackere, Ann, 2015. "Does size matter? Simulating electricity market coupling between Colombia and Ecuador," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1108-1124.
    2. Batalla-Bejerano, Joan & Trujillo-Baute, Elisa, 2016. "Impacts of intermittent renewable generation on electricity system costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 411-420.
    3. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan & Seong, Baek Seo, 2010. "How to do structural validity of a system dynamics type simulation model: The case of an energy policy model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2216-2224, May.
    4. Mesfun, Sennai & Sanchez, Daniel L. & Leduc, Sylvain & Wetterlund, Elisabeth & Lundgren, Joakim & Biberacher, Markus & Kraxner, Florian, 2017. "Power-to-gas and power-to-liquid for managing renewable electricity intermittency in the Alpine Region," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 361-372.
    5. Petitet, Marie & Finon, Dominique & Janssen, Tanguy, 2017. "Capacity adequacy in power markets facing energy transition: A comparison of scarcity pricing and capacity mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 30-46.
    6. Francis Yamba & Hartley Walimwipi & Suman Jain & Peter Zhou & Boaventura Cuamba & Cornelius Mzezewa, 2011. "Climate change/variability implications on hydroelectricity generation in the Zambezi River Basin," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(6), pages 617-628, August.
    7. Liu, Ximei & Zeng, Ming, 2017. "Renewable energy investment risk evaluation model based on system dynamics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 782-788.
    8. Liu, Cengceng & Li, Nan & Zha, Donglan, 2016. "On the impact of FIT policies on renewable energy investment: Based on the solar power support policies in China's power market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-267.
    9. Blumberga, Dagnija & Blumberga, Andra & Barisa, Aiga & Rosa, Marika & Lauka, Dace, 2016. "Modelling the Latvian power market to evaluate its environmental long-term performance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1593-1600.
    10. Ahmad, Salman & Mat Tahar, Razman & Muhammad-Sukki, Firdaus & Munir, Abu Bakar & Abdul Rahim, Ruzairi, 2016. "Application of system dynamics approach in electricity sector modelling: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 29-37.
    11. Aslani, Alireza & Helo, Petri & Naaranoja, Marja, 2014. "Role of renewable energy policies in energy dependency in Finland: System dynamics approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 758-765.
    12. Ochoa, Camila & van Ackere, Ann, 2015. "Winners and losers of market coupling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 522-534.
    13. Jimenez, Maritza & Franco, Carlos J. & Dyner, Isaac, 2016. "Diffusion of renewable energy technologies: The need for policy in Colombia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 818-829.
    14. Antweiler, Werner, 2017. "A two-part feed-in-tariff for intermittent electricity generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 458-470.
    15. Hsu, Chiung-Wen, 2012. "Using a system dynamics model to assess the effects of capital subsidies and feed-in tariffs on solar PV installations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 205-217.
    16. Rylie E.O. Pelton & Timothy M. Smith, 2015. "Hotspot Scenario Analysis," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 19(3), pages 427-440, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. José D. Morcillo & Fabiola Angulo & Carlos J. Franco, 2020. "Analyzing the Hydroelectricity Variability on Power Markets from a System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems Perspective: Seasonality and ENSO Phenomenon," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-25, May.
    2. Dehghan, Hamed & Amin-Naseri, Mohammad Reza & Nahavandi, Nasim, 2021. "A system dynamics model to analyze future electricity supply and demand in Iran under alternative pricing policies," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Chaoxun Cai & Shiyu Tian & Yuefeng Shi & Yongjun Chen & Xiaojian Li, 2024. "Influencing Factors Analysis in Railway Engineering Technological Innovation under Complex and Difficult Areas: A System Dynamics Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-20, June.
    4. Thakur, Jagruti & Hesamzadeh, Mohammad Reza & Date, Paresh & Bunn, Derek, 2023. "Pricing and hedging wind power prediction risk with binary option contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Luo, Yilun & Ahmadi, Esmaeil & McLellan, Benjamin Craig & Tezuka, Tetsuo, 2024. "A hybrid system dynamics model for power mix trajectory simulation in liberalized electricity markets considering carbon and capacity policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    6. Jin, Haowei & Guo, Jue & Tang, Lei & Du, Pei, 2024. "Long-term electricity demand forecasting under low-carbon energy transition: Based on the bidirectional feedback between power demand and generation mix," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    7. Jidong Wang & Jiahui Wu & Yingchen Shi, 2022. "A Novel Energy Management Optimization Method for Commercial Users Based on Hybrid Simulation of Electricity Market Bidding," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-24, June.
    8. de Oliveira, Glauber Cardoso & Bertone, Edoardo & Stewart, Rodney A., 2022. "Optimisation modelling tools and solving techniques for integrated precinct-scale energy–water system planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
    9. Tang, Lei & Guo, Jue & Zhao, Boyang & Wang, Xiuli & Shao, Chengcheng & Wang, Yifei, 2021. "Power generation mix evolution based on rolling horizon optimal approach: A system dynamics analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    10. Becerra-Fernandez, Mauricio & Sarmiento, Alfonso T. & Cardenas, Laura M., 2023. "Sustainability assessment of the solar energy supply chain in Colombia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    11. de Oliveira, Glauber Cardoso & Bertone, Edoardo & Stewart, Rodney A., 2022. "Challenges, opportunities, and strategies for undertaking integrated precinct-scale energy–water system planning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    12. Liu, Donghui & Gao, Xiangyun & An, Haizhong & Jia, Nanfei & Wang, Anjian, 2024. "Exploring market instability of global lithium resources based on chaotic dynamics analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    13. Liu, Donghui & Gao, Xiangyun & An, Haizhong & Qi, Yabin & Wang, Ze & Jia, Nanfei & Chen, Zhihua, 2020. "Exploring behavior changes of the lithium market in China: Toward technology-oriented future scenarios," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    14. Zhang, Tao & Li, Guojun & Wei, Linyang & Ji, Wenchao & Qiu, Yong & Zhang, Qinrui, 2024. "A novel dynamic simulation strategy for regional integrated energy system considering coupling components failure," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    15. Doroodi, Maryam & Ostadi, Bakhtiar & Husseinzadeh Kashan, Ali & Zegordi, Seyed Hessameddin, 2024. "An integrated system dynamics model of electricity production, consumption, and export policy in Iran considering carbon emissions," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    16. José D. Morcillo & Fabiola Angulo & Carlos J. Franco, 2021. "Simulation and Analysis of Renewable and Nonrenewable Capacity Scenarios under Hybrid Modeling: A Case Study," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(13), pages 1-26, July.
    17. Henao, Felipe & Dyner, Isaac, 2020. "Renewables in the optimal expansion of colombian power considering the Hidroituango crisis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 612-627.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac & Cosenz, Federico, 2019. "Assessing the effect of transmission constraints on wind power expansion in northeast Brazil," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Martínez-Jaramillo, Juan Esteban & van Ackere, Ann & Larsen, Erik, 2023. "Long term impacts of climate change on the transition towards renewables in Switzerland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    3. Abba, Z.Y.I. & Balta-Ozkan, N. & Hart, P., 2022. "A holistic risk management framework for renewable energy investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Xin-gang, Zhao & Wei, Wang & Ling, Wu, 2021. "A dynamic analysis of research and development incentive on China's photovoltaic industry based on system dynamics model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    5. Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac & Cosenz, Federico, 2020. "Benefits from energy policy synchronisation of Brazil’s North-Northeast interconnection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 427-437.
    6. Luo, Yilun & Ahmadi, Esmaeil & McLellan, Benjamin Craig & Tezuka, Tetsuo, 2024. "A hybrid system dynamics model for power mix trajectory simulation in liberalized electricity markets considering carbon and capacity policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    7. Dianat, Fateme & Khodakarami, Vahid & Hosseini, Seyed-Hossein & Shakouri G, Hamed, 2022. "Combining game theory concepts and system dynamics for evaluating renewable electricity development in fossil-fuel-rich countries in the Middle East and North Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 805-821.
    8. Esmaieli, M. & Ahmadian, M., 2018. "The effect of research and development incentive on wind power investment, a system dynamics approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 765-773.
    9. Ahmad, Salman & Tahar, Razman Mat & Muhammad-Sukki, Firdaus & Munir, Abu Bakar & Rahim, Ruzairi Abdul, 2015. "Role of feed-in tariff policy in promoting solar photovoltaic investments in Malaysia: A system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 808-815.
    10. Zapata, Sebastian & Castaneda, Monica & Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac, 2023. "Investigating the concurrence of transmission grid expansion and the dissemination of renewables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    11. Vika Koban, 2017. "The impact of market coupling on Hungarian and Romanian electricity markets: Evidence from the regime-switching model," Energy & Environment, , vol. 28(5-6), pages 621-638, September.
    12. Hendalianpour, Ayad & Liu, Peide & Amirghodsi, Sirous & Hamzehlou, Mohammad, 2022. "Designing a System Dynamics model to simulate criteria affecting oil and gas development contracts," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Milad Mousavian, H. & Hamed Shakouri, G. & Mashayekhi, Ali-Naghi & Kazemi, Aliyeh, 2020. "Does the short-term boost of renewable energies guarantee their stable long-term growth? Assessment of the dynamics of feed-in tariff policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 1252-1268.
    14. Chang, Kai & Zeng, Yonghong & Wang, Weihong & Wu, Xin, 2019. "The effects of credit policy and financial constraints on tangible and research & development investment: Firm-level evidence from China's renewable energy industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 438-447.
    15. Montoya-Duque, Laura & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Arias-Gaviria, Jessica, 2022. "Simulating the effect of the Pay-as-you-go scheme for solar energy diffusion in Colombian off-grid regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    16. Ibanez-Lopez, A.S. & Moratilla-Soria, B.Y., 2017. "An assessment of Spain's new alternative energy support framework and its long-term impact on wind power development and system costs through behavioral dynamic simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 629-646.
    17. Tang, Ou & Rehme, Jakob, 2017. "An investigation of renewable certificates policy in Swedish electricity industry using an integrated system dynamics model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 200-213.
    18. Zhao, Jing & Zhang, Qin & Zhou, Dequn, 2023. "Can marketed on-grid price drive the realization of energy transition in China’s power industry under the background of carbon neutrality?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    19. Hu, Xing & Guo, Yingying & Zheng, Yali & Liu, Lan-cui & Yu, Shiwei, 2022. "Which types of policies better promote the development of renewable energy? Evidence from China's provincial data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 1373-1382.
    20. Rios, Daniel & Blanco, Gerardo & Olsina, Fernando, 2019. "Integrating Real Options Analysis with long-term electricity market models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 188-205.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:216:y:2018:i:c:p:504-520. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.