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Analyzing the Hydroelectricity Variability on Power Markets from a System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems Perspective: Seasonality and ENSO Phenomenon

Author

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  • José D. Morcillo

    (Facultad de Ingeniería y Tecnologías, Universidad de Monterrey, Monterrey 66238, Mexico
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Fabiola Angulo

    (Departamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica, Electrónica y Computación, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Manizales, Manizales 170003, Colombia
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Carlos J. Franco

    (Facultad de Minas, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Medellín, Medellín 050041, Colombia
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

In this paper, the variations in hydropower generation are addressed considering the seasonality and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) episodes. The dynamic hypothesis and the stock-flow structure of the Colombian electricity market were analyzed. Moreover, its dynamic behavior was analyzed by using Dynamic Systems tools aimed at providing deep insight into the system. The MATLAB/Simulink model was used to evaluate the Colombian electricity market. Since we combine System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems, this methodology provides a novel insight and a deeper analysis compared with System Dynamics models and can be easily implemented by policymakers to suggest improvements in regulation or market structures. We also provide a detailed description of the Colombian electricity market dynamics under a broad range of demand growth rate scenarios inspired by the bifurcation and control theory of Dynamic Systems.

Suggested Citation

  • José D. Morcillo & Fabiola Angulo & Carlos J. Franco, 2020. "Analyzing the Hydroelectricity Variability on Power Markets from a System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems Perspective: Seasonality and ENSO Phenomenon," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-25, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:9:p:2381-:d:356014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. José D. Morcillo & Fabiola Angulo & Carlos J. Franco, 2021. "Simulation and Analysis of Renewable and Nonrenewable Capacity Scenarios under Hybrid Modeling: A Case Study," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(13), pages 1-26, July.

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