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Exploring behavior changes of the lithium market in China: Toward technology-oriented future scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Donghui
  • Gao, Xiangyun
  • An, Haizhong
  • Qi, Yabin
  • Wang, Ze
  • Jia, Nanfei
  • Chen, Zhihua

Abstract

The lithium market in China has experienced great changes due to emerging renewable energy technologies. Recycling, substitution and brine mining technologies are expected to alleviate the undersupply of lithium resources. However, these technologies cause much uncertainty, which affects market stability. To explore the behavior changes of the lithium market that are affected by these related technological developments, a system dynamics model is established, and bifurcation theory is employed to analyze market stability. Technological development is based on three scenarios: a step signal shock, a slope signal shock and a continuous change. The results show that when there is a step signal to the four kinds of technological development, the lithium market will go through fierce fluctuations that are especially affected by the step shock of the emerging renewable technologies. When there is a slope signal to the four technological developments, the lithium market moves toward a more stable situation, but the undersupply cannot be alleviated as much as it can with the step signal. When the technological developments are continuously changed, there are some obvious sudden changes in the lithium market. When technology develops to some extent, the market behavior can remain unchanged for a wide range of periods. On this condition, more incentives will not work. It can be finally concluded that lithium substitutes show a great potential to alleviate the undersupply situations and maintain a stable environment in the lithium market. More studies and investments should be put into substitution technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Donghui & Gao, Xiangyun & An, Haizhong & Qi, Yabin & Wang, Ze & Jia, Nanfei & Chen, Zhihua, 2020. "Exploring behavior changes of the lithium market in China: Toward technology-oriented future scenarios," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:69:y:2020:i:c:s0301420720309168
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101885
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. John D. Graham & John A. Rupp & Eva Brungard, 2021. "Lithium in the Green Energy Transition: The Quest for Both Sustainability and Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    2. Song, Huiling & Wang, Chang & Sun, Kun & Geng, Hongjun & Zuo, Lyushui, 2023. "Material efficiency strategies across the industrial chain to secure indium availability for global carbon neutrality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    3. Liu, Donghui & Gao, Xiangyun & An, Haizhong & Jia, Nanfei & Wang, Anjian, 2024. "Exploring market instability of global lithium resources based on chaotic dynamics analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Zheng, Shuxian & Tan, Zhanglu & Xing, Wanli & Zhou, Xuanru & Zhao, Pei & Yin, Xiuqi & Hu, Han, 2022. "A comparative exploration of the chaotic characteristics of Chinese and international copper futures prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Qin, Meng & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia & Su, Chi-Wei, 2023. "Bubble behaviors in lithium price and the contagion effect: An industry chain perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Li, Xiaobin & Sengupta, Tuhin & Si Mohammed, Kamel & Jamaani, Fouad, 2023. "Forecasting the lithium mineral resources prices in China: Evidence with Facebook Prophet (Fb-P) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

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