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Can Brazil replace 5% of the 2025 gasoline world demand with ethanol?

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  • Cerqueira Leite, Rogério Cezar de
  • Verde Leal, Manoel Regis Lima
  • Barbosa Cortez, Luís Augusto
  • Griffin, W. Michael
  • Gaya Scandiffio, Mirna Ivonne

Abstract

Increasing use of petroleum, coupled with concern for global warming, demands the development and institution of CO2 reducing, non-fossil fuel-based alternative energy-generating strategies. Ethanol is a potential alternative, particularly when produced in a sustainable way as is envisioned for sugarcane in Brazil. We consider the expansion of sugarcane-derived ethanol to displace 5% of projected gasoline use worldwide in 2025. With existing technology, 21 million hectares of land will be required to produce the necessary ethanol. This is less than 7% of current Brazilian agricultural land and equivalent to current soybean land use. New production lands come from pasture made available through improving pasture management in the cattle industry. With the continued introduction of new cane varieties (annual yield increases of about 1.6%) and new ethanol production technologies, namely the hydrolysis of bagasse to sugars for ethanol production and sugarcane trash collection providing renewable process energy production, this could reduce these modest land requirements by 29–38%.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerqueira Leite, Rogério Cezar de & Verde Leal, Manoel Regis Lima & Barbosa Cortez, Luís Augusto & Griffin, W. Michael & Gaya Scandiffio, Mirna Ivonne, 2009. "Can Brazil replace 5% of the 2025 gasoline world demand with ethanol?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 655-661.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:34:y:2009:i:5:p:655-661
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2008.11.001
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    1. Marcelo Pereira Da Cunha & Jose Antonio Scaramucci, 2006. "Bioethanol As Basis for Regional Development in Brazil: An Input-Output Model With Mixed Technologies," ERSA conference papers ersa06p242, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Leibtag, Ephraim S., 2008. "Corn Records Near Record High, But What About Food Costs?," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, pages 1-6, February.
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