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Simulating emerging coastal tourism vulnerabilities: an agent-based modelling approach

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  • Student, Jillian
  • Kramer, Mark R.
  • Steinmann, Patrick

Abstract

Coastal tourism destinations face a range of climate-related changes. Prevailing challenges include understanding emerging changes and future uncertainties. A dynamic vulnerability approach is a promising way to analyse emerging socio-ecological vulnerabilities. This research presents an innovative coupling of the human-environment system in the agent-based model Coasting, and is applied to Curaçao's coastal tourism. We observe how operator numbers and environmental attractiveness, proxies for socio-ecological vulnerabilities, change over time. Global sensitivity analysis highlights the main interacting factors behind socio-ecological vulnerabilities. Scenario discovery explores the main drivers contributing to undesirable vulnerabilities. The model's findings provide key insights on which factors tourism destinations need to focus on to prevent socio-ecological vulnerabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Student, Jillian & Kramer, Mark R. & Steinmann, Patrick, 2020. "Simulating emerging coastal tourism vulnerabilities: an agent-based modelling approach," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:85:y:2020:i:c:s016073832030178x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2020.103034
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Yong & Han, Linna & Ma, Xuejiao, 2022. "International tourism and economic vulnerability," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Jlenia Di Noia, 2022. "Agent-Based Models for Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Zones. A Review," Working Papers 2022.20, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Abhik Chakraborty, 2022. "Geodiversity and Tourism Sustainability in the Anthropocene," Tourism and Hospitality, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-13, June.
    4. Daniel Scott & Robert Steiger & Michelle Rutty & Marc Pons & Peter Johnson, 2020. "Climate Change and Ski Tourism Sustainability: An Integrated Model of the Adaptive Dynamics between Ski Area Operations and Skier Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Valentina Della Corte & Giovanna Del Gaudio & Fabiana Sepe & Simone Luongo, 2021. "Destination Resilience and Innovation for Advanced Sustainable Tourism Management: A Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-19, November.
    6. Di Noia, Jlenia, 2022. "Agent-Based Models for Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Zones. A Review," FEEM Working Papers 322810, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Vyddiyaratnam Pathmanandakumar & Sheeba Nettukandy Chenoli & Hong Ching Goh, 2021. "Linkages between Climate Change and Coastal Tourism: A Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-21, September.

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