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Climate Change and Ski Tourism Sustainability: An Integrated Model of the Adaptive Dynamics between Ski Area Operations and Skier Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Scott

    (Department of Geography & Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada)

  • Robert Steiger

    (Department of Public Finance, University of Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria)

  • Michelle Rutty

    (Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada)

  • Marc Pons

    (Observatori de la Sostenibilitat d’Andorra, AD600 Sant Julià de Lòria, Andorra)

  • Peter Johnson

    (Department of Geography & Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada)

Abstract

Climate change is an evolving business reality influencing the sustainability of ski tourism worldwide. A new integrated model of the co-evolution of supply (27 ski areas) and demand-side (skier behaviour) climate change adaptation in the ski tourism market of Ontario, Canada is presented. Ski area operations are modeled under a high-emission 2050s scenario, with skier responses to altered operations informed by a survey of 2429 skiers. These market adaptive dynamics reveal new insights into differential climate risk, capturing patterns not apparent when considering only operational conditions of ski resorts. A decoupling of ski season length and skier visitation was found at four ski areas, where, despite average season length losses, visitation increased as a result of reduced competition. Simulated skier visit losses were smaller than reductions in season length, contributing to an increase in crowding. Growing the market of skiers was also identified as a critical adaptation strategy that could offset skier visit losses from shortened seasons. Climate change challenges the future sustainability of ski areas in this market in several ways: profitability of ski areas with substantially shorter seasons, increased snowmaking costs, crowding impacts on visitor experience, and potential overtourism at the few most climate resilient destinations.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Scott & Robert Steiger & Michelle Rutty & Marc Pons & Peter Johnson, 2020. "Climate Change and Ski Tourism Sustainability: An Integrated Model of the Adaptive Dynamics between Ski Area Operations and Skier Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:24:p:10617-:d:464791
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rutty, Michelle & Scott, Daniel & Johnson, Peter & Pons, Marc & Steiger, Robert & Vilella, Marc, 2017. "Using ski industry response to climatic variability to assess climate change risk: An analogue study in Eastern Canada," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 196-204.
    2. Steiger, Robert & Posch, Eva & Tappeiner, Gottfried & Walde, Janette, 2020. "The impact of climate change on demand of ski tourism - a simulation study based on stated preferences," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Daniel Scott & Jackie Dawson & Brenda Jones, 2008. "Climate change vulnerability of the US Northeast winter recreation– tourism sector," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 577-596, June.
    4. Amelung, Bas & Nicholls, Sarah, 2014. "Implications of climate change for tourism in Australia," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 228-244.
    5. Student, Jillian & Kramer, Mark R. & Steinmann, Patrick, 2020. "Simulating emerging coastal tourism vulnerabilities: an agent-based modelling approach," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Moscovici, 2022. "Ski Resort Closures and Opportunities for Sustainability in North America," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Chris Roberts & Joel Reynolds & Mary Jo Dolasinski, 2022. "Meta-Analysis of Tourism Sustainability Research: 2019–2021," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, March.

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