IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/anture/v103y2023ics0160738323001457.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating multicountry tourism flows by transport mode

Author

Listed:
  • Llano, Carlos
  • Pardo, Juan
  • Pérez-Balsalobre, Santiago
  • Pérez, Julián

Abstract

This article describes the methodology used to obtain a harmonized database of country-to-country flows of tourists and visitors built upon the UNWTO original database. Focusing on 74 countries for the period 1995–2018 and starting with data on outbound tourism, we develop a methodology using other alternative indicators from the UNWTO which fills the gaps related to two main indicators (Foreign Visitors by country of Residence and Foreign Tourists by country of Residence). Subsequently, intra-national domestic tourism and the transport mode specific flows are obtained. The paper finally contrasts the robustness of the results obtained with the gravity equation for all flows, thereby confirming the solvency of the process and the final data retrieved.

Suggested Citation

  • Llano, Carlos & Pardo, Juan & Pérez-Balsalobre, Santiago & Pérez, Julián, 2023. "Estimating multicountry tourism flows by transport mode," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:103:y:2023:i:c:s0160738323001457
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2023.103672
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160738323001457
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.annals.2023.103672?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peng, Bo & Song, Haiyan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2014. "A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 181-193.
    2. Cristea, Anca & Hummels, David & Puzzello, Laura & Avetisyan, Misak, 2013. "Trade and the greenhouse gas emissions from international freight transport," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 153-173.
    3. Hough, Gary & Hassanien, Ahmed, 2010. "Transport choice behaviour of Chinese and Australian tourists in Scotland," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 54-65.
    4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    5. Morley, Clive & Rosselló, Jaume & Santana-Gallego, Maria, 2014. "Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-10.
    6. Tamara de la Mata, 2014. "Does trade creation by social and business networks hold in services?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(13), pages 1509-1525, May.
    7. Olanrewaju Akande & Fan Li & Jerome Reiter, 2017. "An Empirical Comparison of Multiple Imputation Methods for Categorical Data," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(2), pages 162-170, April.
    8. Reiter, Jerome P. & Raghunathan, Trivellore E., 2007. "The Multiple Adaptations of Multiple Imputation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1462-1471, December.
    9. Wan, Shui Ki & Song, Haiyan, 2018. "Forecasting turning points in tourism growth," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 156-167.
    10. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    11. Tamara Mata & Carlos Llano, 2013. "Social networks and trade of services: modelling interregional flows with spatial and network autocorrelation effects," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 319-367, July.
    12. Patrick Royston & John B. Carlin & Ian R. White, 2009. "Multiple imputation of missing values: New features for mim," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(2), pages 252-264, June.
    13. Michael Bailey & Rachel Cao & Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel & Arlene Wong, 2018. "Social Connectedness: Measurement, Determinants, and Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 259-280, Summer.
    14. Christoph Vietze, 2012. "Cultural Effects on Inbound Tourism into the USA: A Gravity Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 121-138, February.
    15. Zamparini, L. & Domènech, A. & Miravet, D. & Gutiérrez, A., 2022. "Green mobility at home, green mobility at tourism destinations: A cross-country study of transport modal choices of educated young adults," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    16. Scott, Daniel & Gössling, Stefan, 2022. "A review of research into tourism and climate change - Launching the annals of tourism research curated collection on tourism and climate change," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    17. Jevan Cherniwchan & Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2017. "Trade and the Environment: New Methods, Measurements, and Results," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 59-85, September.
    18. Peeters, Paul & Dubois, Ghislain, 2010. "Tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 447-457.
    19. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    20. Honaker, James & King, Gary & Blackwell, Matthew, 2011. "Amelia II: A Program for Missing Data," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 45(i07).
    21. Rehman, Faheem Ur & Islam, Md. Monirul & Miao, Qing, 2023. "Environmental sustainability via green transportation: A case of the top 10 energy transition nations," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 32-44.
    22. Li, Xun & Gong, Jian & Gao, Baojun & Yuan, Peiwen, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 on tourists' destination preferences: Evidence from China," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    23. Manfred Lenzen & Ya-Yen Sun & Futu Faturay & Yuan-Peng Ting & Arne Geschke & Arunima Malik, 2018. "The carbon footprint of global tourism," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(6), pages 522-528, June.
    24. Liu, Xiaoyun & Whalley, John & Xin, Xian, 2010. "Non-tradable goods and the border effect puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 909-914, September.
    25. Yang, Yang & Zhang, Honglei, 2019. "Spatial-temporal forecasting of tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 106-119.
    26. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
    27. David A. Wagstaff & Ofer Harel, 2011. "A closer examination of three small-sample approximations to the multiple-imputation degrees of freedom," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 11(3), pages 403-419, September.
    28. Sun, Ya-Yen & Gossling, Stefan & Zhou, Wanru, 2022. "Does tourism increase or decrease carbon emissions? A systematic review," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    29. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.
    30. Manfred Lenzen & Ya-Yen Sun & Futu Faturay & Yuan-Peng Ting & Arne Geschke & Arunima Malik, 2018. "Author Correction: The carbon footprint of global tourism," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(6), pages 544-544, June.
    31. Davide Provenzano, 2020. "The migration–tourism nexus in the EU28," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1374-1393, December.
    32. Kathryn M. Aloisio & Sonja A. Swanson & Nadia Micali & Alison Field & Nicholas J. Horton, 2014. "Analysis of partially observed clustered data using generalized estimating equations and multiple imputation," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 14(4), pages 863-883, December.
    33. Prillwitz, Jan & Barr, Stewart, 2011. "Moving towards sustainability? Mobility styles, attitudes and individual travel behaviour," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1590-1600.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jaume Rosselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2022. "Gravity models for tourism demand modeling: Empirical review and outlook," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1358-1409, December.
    2. Yang, Yang & Fan, Yawen & Jiang, Lan & Liu, Xiaohui, 2022. "Search query and tourism forecasting during the pandemic: When and where can digital footprints be helpful as predictors?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.
    4. Yuruixian Zhang & Wei Chong Choo & Yuhanis Abdul Aziz & Choy Leong Yee & Jen Sim Ho, 2022. "Go Wild for a While? A Bibliometric Analysis of Two Themes in Tourism Demand Forecasting from 1980 to 2021: Current Status and Development," Data, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-38, July.
    5. Morley, Clive & Rosselló, Jaume & Santana-Gallego, Maria, 2014. "Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-10.
    6. Carlos Llano-Verduras & Santiago Pérez-Balsalobre & Ana Rincón-Aznar, 2021. "Market fragmentation and the rise of sub-national regulation," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(3), pages 765-797, December.
    7. Andrea Saayman & Paolo Figini & Silvio Cassella, 2016. "The influence of formal trade agreements and informal economic cooperation on international tourism flows," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 1274-1300, December.
    8. Jiao, Xiaoying & Chen, Jason Li & Li, Gang, 2021. "Forecasting tourism demand: Developing a general nesting spatiotemporal model," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Mona Rabea Abd Elfattah Elsayed, 2023. "The Impact of Climate Change on International Tourism: Evidence from Egypt," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 379-390, March.
    10. Carballo, Jerónimo & Schaur, Georg & Graziano, Alejandro & Volpe Martincus, Christian, 2016. "Transit Trade," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7688, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Out of the Border Labyrinth: An Assessment of Trade Facilitation Initiatives in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 96856, February.
    12. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    13. Nicholas Apergis & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Does climate policy uncertainty affect tourism demand? Evidence from time-varying causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(6), pages 1484-1498, September.
    14. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Short run gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Fally, Thibault, 2015. "Structural gravity and fixed effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 76-85.
    16. Zamparini, L. & Domènech, A. & Miravet, D. & Gutiérrez, A., 2022. "Green mobility at home, green mobility at tourism destinations: A cross-country study of transport modal choices of educated young adults," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    17. Kareem, Fatima Olanike & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2016. "Fitting the Gravity Model when Zero Trade Flows are Frequent: a Comparison of Estimation Techniques using Africa's Trade Data," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 230588, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    18. Zhang, Yishuo & Li, Gang & Muskat, Birgit & Law, Rob & Yang, Yating, 2020. "Group pooling for deep tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    19. Roberto Patuelli & Maurizio Mussoni & Guido Candela, 2016. "The Effects of World Heritage Sites on Domestic Tourism: A Spatial Interaction Model for Italy," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Roberto Patuelli & Giuseppe Arbia (ed.), Spatial Econometric Interaction Modelling, chapter 0, pages 281-315, Springer.
    20. Bailey, Michael & Gupta, Abhinav & Hillenbrand, Sebastian & Kuchler, Theresa & Richmond, Robert & Stroebel, Johannes, 2021. "International trade and social connectedness," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International tourism; Domestic tourism; UNWTO; Transport mode; Gravity model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:103:y:2023:i:c:s0160738323001457. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/annals-of-tourism-research/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.