Assessing the feasibility of sprinkler irrigation schemes and their adaptation to future climate change in groundwater over-exploitation regions

Promoting appropriate water-saving irrigation is an important pathway to alleviate groundwater overexploitation in irrigated agriculture. Whether an alternative irrigation method is feasible relies on quantitative assessments of its impacts on crop yield and hydrological cycle, especially in the groundwater overdraft area that faces a dilemma between water scarcity and food security. Using a groundwater-module-improved SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) model, five GCMs (General Circulation Models) projections of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6), and a linear programming algorithm, sprinkler irrigation was simulated, evaluated, and optimized in a representative global groundwater mining location, the piedmont plain of the North China Plain. During the historical period (1993–2012), the results showed that, in general, sprinkler irrigation had advantages in benefiting crop transpiration of winter wheat and reducing percolation, hence improving water use efficiency with reference to traditional surface irrigation. Specifically, compared to traditional surface irrigation schemes, winter wheat yields increased by 12%− 14% with a 225 mm irrigation quota; they were stable with a 150 mm irrigation quota; but they decreased by 4% with a 75 mm irrigation quota. The shallow groundwater tables would decline at an average rate of 1.29 m/yr, 0.83 m/yr, and 0.35 m/yr, respectively, under sprinkler irrigation with 225 mm, 150 mm, and 75 mm irrigation quotas. Future climate changes (increased precipitation, air temperatures, and CO2 concentration) would bring effects of improving wheat yield by 6%− 7% and increasing groundwater vertical recharge by 58%− 122% in 2030–2049. The variations of predicted future shallow groundwater tables were − 0.37 m/yr, 0.01 m/yr, and 0.40 m/yr with the 225 mm, 150 mm, and 75 mm irrigation quotas, respectively, in the SSP2–4.5 scenario; and the corresponding results were − 0.45 m/yr, − 0.05 m/yr, and 0.34 m/yr in the SSP5–8.5 scenario. The optimization results showed that sprinkler irrigation could be implemented in approximately 50% of the study area to achieve shallow groundwater equilibrium and stable wheat production simultaneously in the near future. And the dominant sprinkler irrigation schedule after optimization was found to be scheme S3 (irrigation frequency for wheat was 5 times) with a limited irrigation quota of 150 mm. This study provides detailed data for planning sprinkler water-saving irrigation regimes and groundwater pumping strategies in China’s breadbasket, as well as a reference for global irrigated agriculture with over-drafted aquifers to balance groundwater conservation and grain production.