IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v178y2020ics0308521x19308418.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment of the sustainability of different cropping systems under three irrigation strategies in the North China Plain under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Yan, Zongzheng
  • Zhang, Xiying
  • Rashid, Muhammad Adil
  • Li, Hongjun
  • Jing, Haichun
  • Hochman, Zvi

Abstract

The annual double-cropping system of winter wheat and summer maize requires a large amount of irrigation which has led to the rapid depletion of groundwater resources in the North China Plain (NCP). Alternate cropping systems and limited irrigation strategies should be developed for the purposes of maintaining sustainable groundwater use now and in the future. In this study, the water use and crop production of seven cropping systems under three irrigation strategies were assessed using the Agricultural Production Systems SIMulator (APSIM) during 1987–2017 as a baseline and in 2040, 2060, and 2080 under climate change conditions at a typical site in the NCP. The APSIM was calibrated and validated using field experimental data collected during 2007–2016. The seven cropping systems included the current double annual cropping system (2C/1Y) and six other reduced cropping-intensity systems with either three crops every two years (3C/2Y) or one crop per year (1C/1Y). The three irrigation strategies were full irrigation (FI), minimum irrigation (MI, only one irrigation at sowing for seedling establishment) and critical stage irrigation (CI, adding one more irrigation at the critical stage based on MI). The results showed that under current growing conditions, sustainable groundwater use could be achieved with 2C/1Y under MI, 3C/2Y and 1C/1Y under FI. However, the annual yield production was reduced by 9–22% under 3C/2Y and 54–79% under 1C/1Y compared with that under 2C/1Y. The results indicated that 2C/1Y was a better choice for crop production under similar water use. The simulated yield for future scenarios was lower than that during the baseline period; and the reduction rate varied from 2 to 11% under FI; 6–9% under CI; and 10–21% under MI, suggesting that crop production would be more negatively affected under water-limited conditions than that under full water supply condition. The annual water use of the reduced cropping systems was projected to increase because of relative high soil evaporation during the fallow period (Ef). Water use efficiency (WUE) was reduced partly due to the increased Ef. The traditional 2C/1Y under MI had the potential to sustain the groundwater balance in the region and concurrently resulted in higher grain production and WUE than that of the systems with reduced cropping intensity, both now and under climate change, and therefore, this system should be prioritized in this region.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan, Zongzheng & Zhang, Xiying & Rashid, Muhammad Adil & Li, Hongjun & Jing, Haichun & Hochman, Zvi, 2020. "Assessment of the sustainability of different cropping systems under three irrigation strategies in the North China Plain under climate change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:178:y:2020:i:c:s0308521x19308418
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2019.102745
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X19308418
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.102745?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tom Gleeson & Yoshihide Wada & Marc F. P. Bierkens & Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, 2012. "Water balance of global aquifers revealed by groundwater footprint," Nature, Nature, vol. 488(7410), pages 197-200, August.
    2. Jing Wang & Enli Wang & Xiaoguang Yang & Fusuo Zhang & Hong Yin, 2012. "Increased yield potential of wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain by climate change adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 825-840, August.
    3. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    4. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    5. Jones, Peter G. & Thornton, Philip K., 2013. "Generating downscaled weather data from a suite of climate models for agricultural modelling applications," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-5.
    6. Asad Qureshi & Peter McCornick & A. Sarwar & Bharat Sharma, 2010. "Challenges and Prospects of Sustainable Groundwater Management in the Indus Basin, Pakistan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(8), pages 1551-1569, June.
    7. Zhang, Xiying & Qin, Wenli & Chen, Suying & Shao, Liwei & Sun, Hongyong, 2017. "Responses of yield and WUE of winter wheat to water stress during the past three decades—A case study in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 47-54.
    8. Li, Jianzheng & Wang, Enli & Wang, Yingchun & Xing, Hongtao & Wang, Daolong & Wang, Ligang & Gao, Chunyu, 2016. "Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from a wheat–maize rotation system while still maintaining productivity," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 90-98.
    9. Sun, Hongyong & Zhang, Xiying & Liu, Xiujing & Liu, Xiuwei & Shao, Liwei & Chen, Suying & Wang, Jintao & Dong, Xinliang, 2019. "Impact of different cropping systems and irrigation schedules on evapotranspiration, grain yield and groundwater level in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 202-209.
    10. Kang, Shaozhong & Zhang, Lu & Liang, Yinli & Hu, Xiaotao & Cai, Huanjie & Gu, Binjie, 2002. "Effects of limited irrigation on yield and water use efficiency of winter wheat in the Loess Plateau of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 203-216, June.
    11. Yang, Xuan & Zheng, Lina & Yang, Qian & Wang, Zikui & Cui, Song & Shen, Yuying, 2018. "Modelling the effects of conservation tillage on crop water productivity, soil water dynamics and evapotranspiration of a maize-winter wheat-soybean rotation system on the Loess Plateau of China using," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 111-123.
    12. Qin, Wenli & Zhang, Xiying & Chen, Suying & Sun, Hongyong & Shao, Liwei, 2018. "Crop rotation and N application rate affecting the performance of winter wheat under deficit irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 330-339.
    13. Rashid, Muhammad Adil & Jabloun, Mohamed & Andersen, Mathias Neumann & Zhang, Xiying & Olesen, Jørgen Eivind, 2019. "Climate change is expected to increase yield and water use efficiency of wheat in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 193-203.
    14. Zhang, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Xiying & Liu, Xiuwei & Shao, Liwei & Sun, Hongyong & Chen, Suying, 2015. "Incorporating root distribution factor to evaluate soil water status for winter wheat," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 32-41.
    15. Zhang, Xiying & Chen, Suying & Sun, Hongyong & Shao, Liwei & Wang, Yanzhe, 2011. "Changes in evapotranspiration over irrigated winter wheat and maize in North China Plain over three decades," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(6), pages 1097-1104, April.
    16. Suchul Kang & Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, 2018. "North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    17. Wang, Bin & Feng, Puyu & Chen, Chao & Liu, De Li & Waters, Cathy & Yu, Qiang, 2019. "Designing wheat ideotypes to cope with future changing climate in South-Eastern Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 9-18.
    18. Xiao, Dengpan & Shen, Yanjun & Qi, Yongqing & Moiwo, Juana P. & Min, Leilei & Zhang, Yucui & Guo, Ying & Pei, Hongwei, 2017. "Impact of alternative cropping systems on groundwater use and grain yields in the North China Plain Region," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 109-117.
    19. Luo, Jianmei & Shen, Yanjun & Qi, Yongqing & Zhang, Yucui & Xiao, Dengpan, 2018. "Evaluating water conservation effects due to cropping system optimization on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei plain, China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 32-41.
    20. Chuang Zhao & Shilong Piao & Yao Huang & Xuhui Wang & Philippe Ciais & Mengtian Huang & Zhenzhong Zeng & Shushi Peng, 2016. "Field warming experiments shed light on the wheat yield response to temperature in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-8, December.
    21. Araya, A. & Kisekka, Isaya & Gowda, Prasanna H. & Prasad, P.V. Vara, 2017. "Evaluation of water-limited cropping systems in a semi-arid climate using DSSAT-CSM," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 86-98.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Shiquan & Xiong, Jinran & Yang, Boyuan & Yang, Xiaolin & Du, Taisheng & Steenhuis, Tammo S. & Siddique, Kadambot H.M. & Kang, Shaozhong, 2023. "Diversified crop rotations reduce groundwater use and enhance system resilience," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    2. Zhang, Xueliang & Ding, Beibei & Hou, Yonghao & Feng, Puyu & Liu, De Li & Srinivasan, Raghavan & Chen, Yong, 2024. "Assessing the feasibility of sprinkler irrigation schemes and their adaptation to future climate change in groundwater over-exploitation regions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    3. Jiang, Hanbing & Feakins, Sarah J. & Liu, Liantao & Dong, Xinliang & Li, Cundong & Liu, Xiuwei, 2024. "Leaf n-alkane δ13C improves upon conventional bulk leaf δ13C for assessing drought sensitivity of winter wheat cultivars," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    4. Liu, Xiaogang & Peng, Youliang & Yang, Qiliang & Wang, Xiukang & Cui, Ningbo, 2021. "Determining optimal deficit irrigation and fertilization to increase mango yield, quality, and WUE in a dry hot environment based on TOPSIS," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    5. Hochman, Zvi & Horan, Heidi & Navarro Garcia, Javier & Hopwood, Garry & Whish, Jeremy & Bell, Lindsay & Zhang, Xiying & Jing, Haichun, 2020. "Cropping system yield gaps can be narrowed with more optimal rotations in dryland subtropical Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    6. Wang, He & Zheng, Chunlian & Ning, Songrui & Cao, Caiyun & Li, Kejiang & Dang, Hongkai & Wu, Yuqing & Zhang, Junpeng, 2023. "Impacts of long-term saline water irrigation on soil properties and crop yields under maize-wheat crop rotation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    7. Zhao, Jiongchao & Wang, Chong & Shi, Xiaoyu & Bo, Xiaozhi & Li, Shuo & Shang, Mengfei & Chen, Fu & Chu, Qingquan, 2021. "Modeling climatically suitable areas for soybean and their shifts across China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    8. Yang, Yanmin & Yang, Yonghui & Han, Shumin & Li, Huilong & Wang, Lu & Ma, Qingtao & Ma, Lexin & Wang, Linna & Hou, Zhenjun & Chen, Li & Liu, De Li, 2023. "Comparison of water-saving potential of fallow and crop change with high water-use winter-wheat – summer-maize rotation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    9. Xiao, Dengpan & Liu, De Li & Feng, Puyu & Wang, Bin & Waters, Cathy & Shen, Yanjun & Qi, Yongqing & Bai, Huizi & Tang, Jianzhao, 2021. "Future climate change impacts on grain yield and groundwater use under different cropping systems in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    10. Yan, Zhenxing & Zhang, Wenying & Liu, Xiuwei & Wang, Qingsuo & Liu, Binhui & Mei, Xurong, 2024. "Grain yield and water productivity of winter wheat controlled by irrigation regime and manure substitution in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    11. Hao, Shirui & Ryu, Dongryeol & Western, Andrew & Perry, Eileen & Bogena, Heye & Franssen, Harrie Jan Hendricks, 2021. "Performance of a wheat yield prediction model and factors influencing the performance: A review and meta-analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    12. He, Qinsi & Liu, De Li & Wang, Bin & Li, Linchao & Cowie, Annette & Simmons, Aaron & Zhou, Hongxu & Tian, Qi & Li, Sien & Li, Yi & Liu, Ke & Yan, Haoliang & Harrison, Matthew Tom & Feng, Puyu & Waters, 2022. "Identifying effective agricultural management practices for climate change adaptation and mitigation: A win-win strategy in South-Eastern Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    13. Shen, Ge & Yu, Qiangyi & Zhou, Qingbo & Wang, Cong & Wu, Wenbin, 2023. "From multiple cropping frequency to multiple cropping system: A new perspective for the characterization of cropland use intensity," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    14. Yanxi Zhao & Dengpan Xiao & Huizi Bai & Jianzhao Tang & De Li Liu & Yongqing Qi & Yanjun Shen, 2022. "The Prediction of Wheat Yield in the North China Plain by Coupling Crop Model with Machine Learning Algorithms," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, December.
    15. Feng, Xudong & Bi, Shaojie & Li, Hongjun & Qi, Yongqing & Chen, Suying & Shao, Liwei, 2024. "Soil moisture forecasting for precision irrigation management using real-time electricity consumption records," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    16. Wang, Xiukang & Guo, Tao & Wang, Yi & Xing, Yingying & Wang, Yanfeng & He, Xiaolong, 2020. "Exploring the optimization of water and fertilizer management practices for potato production in the sandy loam soils of Northwest China based on PCA," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    17. Wang, Jintao & Dong, Xinliang & Qiu, Rangjian & Lou, Boyuan & Tian, Liu & Chen, Pei & Zhang, Xuejia & Liu, Xiaojing & Sun, Hongyong, 2023. "Optimization of sowing date and irrigation schedule of maize in different cropping systems by APSIM for realizing grain mechanical harvesting in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rashid, Muhammad Adil & Jabloun, Mohamed & Andersen, Mathias Neumann & Zhang, Xiying & Olesen, Jørgen Eivind, 2019. "Climate change is expected to increase yield and water use efficiency of wheat in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 193-203.
    2. Zhong, Honglin & Sun, Laixiang & Fischer, Günther & Tian, Zhan & Liang, Zhuoran, 2019. "Optimizing regional cropping systems with a dynamic adaptation strategy for water sustainable agriculture in the Hebei Plain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 94-106.
    3. Xiao, Dengpan & Liu, De Li & Wang, Bin & Feng, Puyu & Bai, Huizi & Tang, Jianzhao, 2020. "Climate change impact on yields and water use of wheat and maize in the North China Plain under future climate change scenarios," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    4. Yang, Xiaolin & Jin, Xinnan & Chu, Qingquan & Pacenka, Steven & Steenhuis, Tammo S., 2021. "Impact of climate variation from 1965 to 2016 on cotton water requirements in North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    5. Xiao, Dengpan & Liu, De Li & Feng, Puyu & Wang, Bin & Waters, Cathy & Shen, Yanjun & Qi, Yongqing & Bai, Huizi & Tang, Jianzhao, 2021. "Future climate change impacts on grain yield and groundwater use under different cropping systems in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    6. Luo, Jianmei & Shen, Yanjun & Qi, Yongqing & Zhang, Yucui & Xiao, Dengpan, 2018. "Evaluating water conservation effects due to cropping system optimization on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei plain, China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 32-41.
    7. Feng, Xudong & Bi, Shaojie & Li, Hongjun & Qi, Yongqing & Chen, Suying & Shao, Liwei, 2024. "Soil moisture forecasting for precision irrigation management using real-time electricity consumption records," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    8. Ren, Pinpin & Huang, Feng & Li, Baoguo, 2022. "Spatiotemporal patterns of water consumption and irrigation requirements of wheat-maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China and options of their reduction," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    9. Wang, Jintao & Dong, Xinliang & Qiu, Rangjian & Lou, Boyuan & Tian, Liu & Chen, Pei & Zhang, Xuejia & Liu, Xiaojing & Sun, Hongyong, 2023. "Optimization of sowing date and irrigation schedule of maize in different cropping systems by APSIM for realizing grain mechanical harvesting in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    10. Wang, Bo & Wang, Guiyan & van Dam, Jos & Yang, Xiaolin & Ritsema, Coen & Siddique, Kadambot H.M. & Du, Taisheng & Kang, Shaozhong, 2024. "Diversified crop rotations improve crop water use and subsequent cereal crop yield through soil moisture compensation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    11. Zhao, Jie & Zhang, Xuepeng & Yang, Yadong & Zang, Huadong & Yan, Peng & Meki, Manyowa N. & Doro, Luca & Sui, Peng & Jeong, Jaehak & Zeng, Zhaohai, 2021. "Alternative cropping systems for groundwater irrigation sustainability in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    12. Zhang, Chao & Xie, Ziang & Wang, Qiaojuan & Tang, Min & Feng, Shaoyuan & Cai, Huanjie, 2022. "AquaCrop modeling to explore optimal irrigation of winter wheat for improving grain yield and water productivity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    13. Rungruang Janta & Laksanara Khwanchum & Pakorn Ditthakit & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh, 2022. "Water Yield Alteration in Thailand’s Pak Phanang Basin Due to Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Changes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-19, July.
    14. Haowei Sun & Jinghan Ma & Li Wang, 2023. "Changes in per capita wheat production in China in the context of climate change and population growth," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(3), pages 597-612, June.
    15. Tassadit Kourat & Dalila Smadhi & Brahim Mouhouche & Nerdjes Gourari & M. G. Mostofa Amin & Christopher Robin Bryant, 2021. "Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2175-2203, July.
    16. Tang, Jianzhao & Xiao, Dengpan & Wang, Jing & Fang, Quanxiao & Zhang, Jun & Bai, Huizi, 2021. "Optimizing water and nitrogen managements for potato production in the agro-pastoral ecotone in North China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    17. Muhammad Umair & Tabassum Hussain & Hanbing Jiang & Ayesha Ahmad & Jiawei Yao & Yongqing Qi & Yucui Zhang & Leilei Min & Yanjun Shen, 2019. "Water-Saving Potential of Subsurface Drip Irrigation For Winter Wheat," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-15, May.
    18. Li, Haotian & Li, Lu & Liu, Na & Chen, Suying & Shao, Liwei & Sekiya, Nobuhito & Zhang, Xiying, 2022. "Root efficiency and water use regulation relating to rooting depth of winter wheat," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    19. Zhang, Xueliang & Ding, Beibei & Hou, Yonghao & Feng, Puyu & Liu, De Li & Srinivasan, Raghavan & Chen, Yong, 2024. "Assessing the feasibility of sprinkler irrigation schemes and their adaptation to future climate change in groundwater over-exploitation regions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    20. Sun, Hongyong & Zhang, Xiying & Liu, Xiujing & Liu, Xiuwei & Shao, Liwei & Chen, Suying & Wang, Jintao & Dong, Xinliang, 2019. "Impact of different cropping systems and irrigation schedules on evapotranspiration, grain yield and groundwater level in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 202-209.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:178:y:2020:i:c:s0308521x19308418. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.