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Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield

Author

Listed:
  • Xuhui Wang

    (Peking University)

  • Christoph Müller

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Joshua Elliot

    (University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute
    Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research)

  • Nathaniel D. Mueller

    (Colorado State University
    Colorado State University)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Peking University
    CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers)

  • Jonas Jägermeyr

    (University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute
    Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research)

  • James Gerber

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Patrice Dumas

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement)

  • Chenzhi Wang

    (Peking University)

  • Hui Yang

    (Peking University
    CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers)

  • Laurent Li

    (Université Pierre et Marie Curie)

  • Delphine Deryng

    (Climate Analytics)

  • Christian Folberth

    (Ludwig Maximilian University)

  • Wenfeng Liu

    (China Agricultural University)

  • David Makowski

    (Université Paris-Saclay, UMR 211 Agronomie)

  • Stefan Olin

    (Lund University)

  • Thomas A. M. Pugh

    (Lund University)

  • Ashwan Reddy

    (University of Maryland)

  • Erwin Schmid

    (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)

  • Sujong Jeong

    (Seoul National University)

  • Feng Zhou

    (Peking University)

  • Shilong Piao

    (Peking University
    Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30–47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Xuhui Wang & Christoph Müller & Joshua Elliot & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Philippe Ciais & Jonas Jägermeyr & James Gerber & Patrice Dumas & Chenzhi Wang & Hui Yang & Laurent Li & Delphine Deryng & Christ, 2021. "Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21498-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21498-5
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    Cited by:

    1. He, Liuyue & Xu, Zhenci & Wang, Sufen & Bao, Jianxia & Fan, Yunfei & Daccache, Andre, 2022. "Optimal crop planting pattern can be harmful to reach carbon neutrality: Evidence from food-energy-water-carbon nexus perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    2. Yu, Bing & Shang, Songhao, 2024. "Integrated assessment of crop planting suitability: A case study in the Hetao Irrigation District of China using HJ-1A/1B satellite data," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    3. Hou, Lingling & Min, Shi & Huang, Qiuqiong & Huang, Jikun, 2023. "Farmers' perceptions of drought-severity and the impacts on ex-ante and ex-post adaptations to droughts: Evidence from maize farmers in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
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    8. Baum, Mitchell E. & Sawyer, John E. & Nafziger, Emerson D. & Huber, Isaiah & Thorburn, Peter J. & Castellano, Michael J. & Archontoulis, Sotirios V., 2023. "Evaluating and improving APSIM's capacity in simulating long-term corn yield response to nitrogen in continuous- and rotated-corn systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
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    10. Gabriel Felbermayr & Benjamin Bittschi & Josef Baumgartner, 2023. "Kollektivvertragsverhandlungen in Zeiten hoher Inflation," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(9), pages 613-632, September.
    11. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 9/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(9), September.
    12. Wang, Bo & van Dam, Jos & Yang, Xiaolin & Ritsema, Coen & Du, Taisheng & Kang, Shaozhong, 2023. "Reducing water productivity gap by optimizing irrigation regime for winter wheat-summer maize system in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    13. El yaakouby, Ichraq & Rhrissi, Ilyass & Abouliatim, Youness & Hlaibi, Miloudi & Kamil, Noureddine, 2023. "Moroccan sardine scales as a novel and renewable source of heterogeneous catalyst for biodiesel production using palm fatty acid distillate," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    14. Pandey, Vishnu Prasad & Shrestha, Nirman & Urfels, Anton & Ray, Anupama & Khadka, Manohara & Pavelic, Paul & McDonald, Andrew J. & Krupnik, Timothy J., 2023. "Implementing conjunctive management of water resources for irrigation development: A framework applied to the Southern Plain of Western Nepal," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    15. Cailin Wang & Enliang Guo & Yongfang Wang & Buren Jirigala & Yao Kang & Ye Zhang, 2023. "Spatiotemporal variations in drought and waterlogging and their effects on maize yields at different growth stages in Jilin Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(1), pages 155-180, August.
    16. Serra, J. & Paredes, P. & Cordovil, CMdS & Cruz, S. & Hutchings, NJ & Cameira, MR, 2023. "Is irrigation water an overlooked source of nitrogen in agriculture?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    17. Shijie Liu & Chengqi Zhang & Tao Shen & Zidong Zhan & Jia Peng & Cunlong Yu & Lei Jiang & Zhichao Dong, 2023. "Efficient agricultural drip irrigation inspired by fig leaf morphology," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    18. Wu, Bingfang & Ma, Zonghan & Boken, Vijendra K. & Zeng, Hongwei & Shang, Jiali & Igor, Savin & Wang, Jinxia & Yan, Nana, 2022. "Regional differences in the performance of drought mitigation measures in 12 major wheat-growing regions of the world," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    19. Wang, Jingjing & Lou, Yu & Wang, Wentao & Liu, Suyi & Zhang, Haohui & Hui, Xin & Wang, Yunling & Yan, Haijun & Maes, Wouter H., 2024. "A robust model for diagnosing water stress of winter wheat by combining UAV multispectral and thermal remote sensing," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    20. Stefan Wimmer & Christian Stetter & Jonas Schmitt & Robert Finger, 2024. "Farm‐level responses to weather trends: A structural model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(3), pages 1241-1273, May.
    21. Bonassa, Antonio Carlos & Cunha, Claudio Barbieri da & Isler, Cassiano Augusto, 2023. "A multi-start local search heuristic for the multi-period auto-carrier loading and transportation problem in Brazil," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(1), pages 193-211.

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