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Modeling the sensitivity of wheat yield and yield gap to temperature change with two contrasting methods in the North China Plain

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Listed:
  • Huiqing Bai

    (China Agricultural University)

  • Jing Wang

    (China Agricultural University)

  • Quanxiao Fang

    (Qingdao Agricultural University
    Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Hong Yin

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration)

Abstract

Wheat productivity in the North China Plain (NCP) is highly sensitive to climate change and varies greatly in spatial-temporal scale. Contrasting responses of wheat productivity to climate change were reported with different assessment methods. In this study, the impacts of climate warming (+ 2 °C) on wheat yields and yield gaps in the NCP were compared under rainfed, irrigated, and potential conditions using climatic resource utilization model (CRUM) and APSIM. Average potential yield increased 289 kg ha−1 per decade (P

Suggested Citation

  • Huiqing Bai & Jing Wang & Quanxiao Fang & Hong Yin, 2019. "Modeling the sensitivity of wheat yield and yield gap to temperature change with two contrasting methods in the North China Plain," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(4), pages 589-607, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:156:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02526-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02526-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fang, Q.X. & Ma, L. & Green, T.R. & Yu, Q. & Wang, T.D. & Ahuja, L.R., 2010. "Water resources and water use efficiency in the North China Plain: Current status and agronomic management options," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(8), pages 1102-1116, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gao, Yukun & Zhao, Hongfang & Zhao, Chuang & Hu, Guohua & Zhang, Han & Liu, Xue & Li, Nan & Hou, Haiyan & Li, Xia, 2022. "Spatial and temporal variations of maize and wheat yield gaps and their relationships with climate in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    2. Haowei Sun & Jinghan Ma & Li Wang, 2023. "Changes in per capita wheat production in China in the context of climate change and population growth," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(3), pages 597-612, June.
    3. Bai, Huiqing & Wang, Jing & Fang, Quanxiao & Huang, Binxiang, 2020. "Does a trade-off between yield and efficiency reduce water and nitrogen inputs of winter wheat in the North China Plain?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).

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