IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v249y2021ics0378377421000627.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling impacts of climate change on the water needs and growing cycle of crops in three Mediterranean basins

Author

Listed:
  • Funes, I.
  • Savé, R.
  • de Herralde, F.
  • Biel, C.
  • Pla, E.
  • Pascual, D.
  • Zabalza, J.
  • Cantos, G.
  • Borràs, G.
  • Vayreda, J.
  • Aranda, X.

Abstract

In this study, the suitability of major crops currently growing in three case study basins in Catalonia (NE Spain) was assessed for the first half of the 21st century. For this purpose, an estimation was made of net hydric needs (NHN) and a set of agroclimatic parameters. Climate change impacts were estimated at sub-basin level using temperature and precipitation temporal series based on the Third Report on Climate Change in Catalonia under the RCP4.5 scenario. Potential crop evapotranspiration (ETc, FAO procedure) and monthly water balance considering soil water holding capacity were used to estimate actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and NHN. Over the period studied, NHN would generally rise, with small (+ 0.1%) to high (+ 6.6%) increases in the 2020 s and moderate (+ 3.9%) to high (+ 6.7%) increases in the 2040 s. Dynamics would be different for the three basins and general trends vary from crop to crop. At all events, a generalized increase in NHN together with lower water availability could severely limit crop productivity in the case of both rainfed and irrigated crops (irrigation restrictions). Phenological changes could represent a greater constraint for crop productivity. Overall, the number of frost days will decrease (from −0.1 days in March to −8.7 days in April) in the three basins, while extremely hot days will increase (from + 0.3 days in July to + 3.8 days in August). Growth cycles will begin earlier (from −1 days to −12 days for crops with a base temperature of 10 °C), and for some crops they will be shorter (from −8 days to −27 days in the case of maize and up to −10 days in the case of vines). The impacts of climate change in the three basins could result in significant limitations for crops if adaptive strategies beyond irrigation and growing cycle issues are not applied. The results of this study could serve as a basis for the development of adaptation strategies to improve and maintain agriculture in the case study basins and in similar regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Funes, I. & Savé, R. & de Herralde, F. & Biel, C. & Pla, E. & Pascual, D. & Zabalza, J. & Cantos, G. & Borràs, G. & Vayreda, J. & Aranda, X., 2021. "Modeling impacts of climate change on the water needs and growing cycle of crops in three Mediterranean basins," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:249:y:2021:i:c:s0378377421000627
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2021.106797
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377421000627
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.106797?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Connor, Jeffery D. & Schwabe, Kurt & King, Darran & Knapp, Keith, 2012. "Irrigated agriculture and climate change: The influence of water supply variability and salinity on adaptation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 149-157.
    2. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    3. Hong, Eun-Mi & Nam, Won-Ho & Choi, Jin-Yong & Pachepsky, Yakov A., 2016. "Projected irrigation requirements for upland crops using soil moisture model under climate change in South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 163-180.
    4. Lorite, I.J. & Gabaldón-Leal, C. & Ruiz-Ramos, M. & Belaj, A. & de la Rosa, R. & León, L. & Santos, C., 2018. "Evaluation of olive response and adaptation strategies to climate change under semi-arid conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 247-261.
    5. Iglesias, Ana & Garrote, Luis, 2015. "Adaptation strategies for agricultural water management under climate change in Europe," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 113-124.
    6. Funes, Inmaculada & Aranda, Xavier & Biel, Carmen & Carbó, Joaquim & Camps, Francesc & Molina, Antonio J. & Herralde, Felicidad de & Grau, Beatriz & Savé, Robert, 2016. "Future climate change impacts on apple flowering date in a Mediterranean subbasin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 164(P1), pages 19-27.
    7. Valverde, Pedro & Serralheiro, Ricardo & de Carvalho, Mário & Maia, Rodrigo & Oliveira, Bruno & Ramos, Vanessa, 2015. "Climate change impacts on irrigated agriculture in the Guadiana river basin (Portugal)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 17-30.
    8. Saadi, Sameh & Todorovic, Mladen & Tanasijevic, Lazar & Pereira, Luis S. & Pizzigalli, Claudia & Lionello, Piero, 2015. "Climate change and Mediterranean agriculture: Impacts on winter wheat and tomato crop evapotranspiration, irrigation requirements and yield," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 103-115.
    9. Miroslav Trnka & Josef Eitzinger & Daniela Semerádová & Petr Hlavinka & Jan Balek & Martin Dubrovský & Gerhard Kubu & Petr Štěpánek & Sabina Thaler & Martin Možný & Zdeněk Žalud, 2011. "Expected changes in agroclimatic conditions in Central Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(1), pages 261-289, September.
    10. Matthias Zahn & Hans von Storch, 2010. "Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7313), pages 309-312, September.
    11. Corentin Girard & Manuel Pulido-Velazquez & Jean-Daniel Rinaudo & Christian Pagé & Yvan Caballero, 2015. "Integrating top–down and bottom–up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale," Post-Print hal-01290200, HAL.
    12. Savé, R. & de Herralde, F. & Aranda, X. & Pla, E. & Pascual, D. & Funes, I. & Biel, C., 2012. "Potential changes in irrigation requirements and phenology of maize, apple trees and alfalfa under global change conditions in Fluvià watershed during XXIst century: Results from a modeling approximat," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 78-87.
    13. Phogat, V. & Cox, J.W. & Šimůnek, J., 2018. "Identifying the future water and salinity risks to irrigated viticulture in the Murray-Darling Basin, South Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 107-117.
    14. Dechmi, F. & Skhiri, A., 2013. "Evaluation of best management practices under intensive irrigation using SWAT model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 55-64.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elena Georgopoulou & Nikos Gakis & Dimitris Kapetanakis & Dimitris Voloudakis & Maria Markaki & Yannis Sarafidis & Dimitris P. Lalas & George P. Laliotis & Konstantina Akamati & Iosif Bizelis & Markos, 2024. "Climate Change Risks for the Mediterranean Agri-Food Sector: The Case of Greece," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-31, May.
    2. Ennan Zheng & Mengting Qin & Peng Chen & Tianyu Xu & Zhongxue Zhang, 2022. "Climate Change Affects the Utilization of Light and Heat Resources in Paddy Field on the Songnen Plain, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-19, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hong, Eun-Mi & Nam, Won-Ho & Choi, Jin-Yong & Pachepsky, Yakov A., 2016. "Projected irrigation requirements for upland crops using soil moisture model under climate change in South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 163-180.
    2. Oduor, Brian Omondi & Campo-Bescós, Miguel Ángel & Lana-Renault, Noemí & Casalí, Javier, 2023. "Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural Mediterranean watershed in Northern Spain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    3. King, Darran A. & Meyer, Wayne S. & Connor, Jeffery D., 2019. "Interactive land use strategic assessment: An assessment tool for irrigation profitability under climate uncertainty," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Cabezas, J.M. & Ruiz-Ramos, M. & Soriano, M.A. & Santos, C. & Gabaldón-Leal, C. & Lorite, I.J., 2021. "Impact of climate change on economic components of Mediterranean olive orchards," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    5. Serra, J. & Paredes, P. & Cordovil, CMdS & Cruz, S. & Hutchings, NJ & Cameira, MR, 2023. "Is irrigation water an overlooked source of nitrogen in agriculture?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    6. El Chami, D. & Daccache, A., 2015. "Assessing sustainability of winter wheat production under climate change scenarios in a humid climate — An integrated modelling framework," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 19-25.
    7. Lorite, I.J. & Gabaldón-Leal, C. & Ruiz-Ramos, M. & Belaj, A. & de la Rosa, R. & León, L. & Santos, C., 2018. "Evaluation of olive response and adaptation strategies to climate change under semi-arid conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 247-261.
    8. Cabezas, J.M. & Ruiz-Ramos, M. & Soriano, M.A. & Gabaldón-Leal, C. & Santos, C. & Lorite, I.J., 2020. "Identifying adaptation strategies to climate change for Mediterranean olive orchards using impact response surfaces," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    9. Ramos, Tiago B. & Darouich, Hanaa & Šimůnek, Jiří & Gonçalves, Maria C. & Martins, José C., 2019. "Soil salinization in very high-density olive orchards grown in southern Portugal: Current risks and possible trends," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 265-281.
    10. Minhas, P.S. & Ramos, Tiago B. & Ben-Gal, Alon & Pereira, Luis S., 2020. "Coping with salinity in irrigated agriculture: Crop evapotranspiration and water management issues," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    11. Dimitris Tigkas & Harris Vangelis & George Tsakiris, 2020. "Implementing Crop Evapotranspiration in RDI for Farm-Level Drought Evaluation and Adaptation under Climate Change Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(14), pages 4329-4343, November.
    12. Asci, Serhat & Borisova, Tatiana & VanSickle, John J., 2015. "Role of economics in developing fertilizer best management practices," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 251-261.
    13. Yang, Xin & Bornø, Marie Louise & Wei, Zhenhua & Liu, Fulai, 2021. "Combined effect of partial root drying and elevated atmospheric CO2 on the physiology and fruit quality of two genotypes of tomato plants with contrasting endogenous ABA levels," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    14. Nathalie Spittler & Ganna Gladkykh & Arnaud Diemer & Brynhildur Davidsdottir, 2019. "Understanding the Current Energy Paradigm and Energy System Models for More Sustainable Energy System Development," Post-Print hal-02127724, HAL.
    15. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 2020. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899, May.
    16. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    17. Phogat, V. & Cox, J.W. & Šimůnek, J., 2018. "Identifying the future water and salinity risks to irrigated viticulture in the Murray-Darling Basin, South Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 107-117.
    18. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    19. Romero, Pascual & Botía, Pablo & del Amor, Francisco M. & Gil-Muñoz, Rocío & Flores, Pilar & Navarro, Josefa María, 2019. "Interactive effects of the rootstock and the deficit irrigation technique on wine composition, nutraceutical potential, aromatic profile, and sensory attributes under semiarid and water limiting condi," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    20. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2016. "Global energy model hindcasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 293-301.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:249:y:2021:i:c:s0378377421000627. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.