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Dynamic relationship between tourism and economic growth in MERCOSUR countries: a nonlinear approach based on asymmetric time series models

Author

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  • Juan Gabriel Brida

    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración - Universidad de la República)

  • Bibiana Lanzilotta

    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración - Universidad de la República)

  • Fiorella Pizzolon

    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración - Universidad de la República)

Abstract

Since 1995 the four MERCOSUR countries have gone through the path of economic integration; however, they have dissimilar situations in terms of economic growth and, particularly, in the degree of development of the tourism sector. Brida et al. (2015) analyzed the validity of the Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH) for these countries and demonstrated that the relationship between tourism and economic growth is not linear for Argentina and Brazil. However, the authors did not specify the format of the nonlinearity. The present research moves in that direction and explores about the identity of these nonlinearities. The research is based on the methodology which combines the concepts of cointegration with the asymmetric adjustment thresholds. The results allow explaining the nonlinearity in the case of Brazil, which is modeled on the dynamics of the adjustment from transitory situations of disequilibrium between tourism and growth. It is shown that an M-TAR adjustment mechanism is which best describes this behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Gabriel Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Fiorella Pizzolon, 2016. "Dynamic relationship between tourism and economic growth in MERCOSUR countries: a nonlinear approach based on asymmetric time series models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 879-894.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00221
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    3. Osinubi Tolulope T. & Ajayi Adedoyin O. & Osinubi Olufemi B. & Olaniyi Clement O., 2021. "A New Intuition into Tourism-Inclusive Growth Nexus in Turkey and Nigeria (1995 – 2018)," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 221-241, June.
    4. Khavari, Saeed Dehghan & Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein & Derakhsh, Saeedeh, 2021. "Dynamics of Tourism and Economic Growth in the Oil-Exporting Economies: A Tri-Variate Causality," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 51(1), pages 73-86.
    5. Delia Popescu & Iulia Monica Oehler-Sincai & Daniel Bulin & Ion Alexandru Tanase, 2018. "Cee-16: A Cluster Analysis Based on Tourism Competitiveness and Correlations With Major Determinants," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 20(S12), pages 833-833, November.
    6. Arash Ketabforoush Badri & Karim Panahi, 2018. "The Study of Factors Influencing Tourism Demand with Emphasis on the Degree of Openness of the Economy," Noble International Journal of Social Sciences Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 3(10), pages 78-89, October.
    7. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & MANESCHIÖLD, Per-Ola, 2021. "Testing for the Tourism Led Economic Growth Hypothesis in Sweden with Structural Breaks," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(3), pages 293-310.
    8. Naradda Gamage, Sisira Kumara & Kumudumali, S. H. T. & Otamurodov, Shavkat, 2020. "The Nexus between Tourism and Economic Growth: A Systematic Literature Review and Future Research Directions," MPRA Paper 104086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ngozi Helen Oguchi & Fen Luo, 2021. "Estimating the Nexus of Tourism on Sustainable Development Goals in Nigeria," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 20(1), pages 751-771, June.
    10. José Alberto Fuinhas & Matheus Belucio & Daniela Castilho & Joana Mateus & Rafaela Caetano, 2020. "Tourism and Economic Growth Nexus in Latin America and Caribbean Countries: Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Panel," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 13(1), pages 21-34.
    11. Naqib Ullah Khan & Wajid Alim & Abida Begum & Heesup Han & Abdullah Mohamed, 2022. "Examining Factors That Influence the International Tourism in Pakistan and Its Nexus with Economic Growth: Evidence from ARDL Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-15, August.
    12. José Alberto Fuinhas & Matheus Belucio & Daniela Castilho & Joana Mateus & Rafaela Caetano, 2020. "Tourism and Economic Growth Nexus in Latin America and Caribbean Countries: Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Panel," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 13(1), pages 21-34.
    13. Wanjun Xia & Buhari Doğan & Umer Shahzad & Festus Fatai Adedoyin & Abiodun Popoola & Muhammad Adnan Bashir, 2022. "An empirical investigation of tourism-led growth hypothesis in the European countries: evidence from augmented mean group estimator," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 21(2), pages 239-266, May.
    14. Zdravko Sergo, 2019. "Inter-Generational Employment Spillovers From Tourism Across The Eu," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 28(1), pages 97-125, june.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism led-growth hypothesis; cointegration and thresholds adjustment; M-TAR models; MERCOSUR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services

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