IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-16-00221.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic relationship between tourism and economic growth in MERCOSUR countries: a nonlinear approach based on asymmetric time series models

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Gabriel Brida

    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración - Universidad de la República)

  • Bibiana Lanzilotta

    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración - Universidad de la República)

  • Fiorella Pizzolon

    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración - Universidad de la República)

Abstract

Since 1995 the four MERCOSUR countries have gone through the path of economic integration; however, they have dissimilar situations in terms of economic growth and, particularly, in the degree of development of the tourism sector. Brida et al. (2015) analyzed the validity of the Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH) for these countries and demonstrated that the relationship between tourism and economic growth is not linear for Argentina and Brazil. However, the authors did not specify the format of the nonlinearity. The present research moves in that direction and explores about the identity of these nonlinearities. The research is based on the methodology which combines the concepts of cointegration with the asymmetric adjustment thresholds. The results allow explaining the nonlinearity in the case of Brazil, which is modeled on the dynamics of the adjustment from transitory situations of disequilibrium between tourism and growth. It is shown that an M-TAR adjustment mechanism is which best describes this behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Gabriel Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Fiorella Pizzolon, 2016. "Dynamic relationship between tourism and economic growth in MERCOSUR countries: a nonlinear approach based on asymmetric time series models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 879-894.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00221
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2016/Volume36/EB-16-V36-I2-P86.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adamos Adamou & Sofronis Clerides, 2010. "Prospects and Limits of Tourism-Led Growth: The International Evidence," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 2(3), pages 287-303, September.
    2. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    3. Caner,M. & Hansen,B.E., 1998. "Threshold autoregression with a near unit root," Working papers 27, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    4. Andrew Phiri, 2016. "Tourism and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Cointegration Frameworks," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(1 (Spring), pages 31-53.
    5. Tiago Neves Sequeira & Paulo Macas Nunes, 2008. "Does tourism influence economic growth? A dynamic panel data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2431-2441.
    6. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2012. "IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 5-41, February.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Holzner, Mario, 2011. "Tourism and economic development: The beach disease?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 922-933.
    9. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan S. & Risso, Wiston Adrián & Devesa, María Jesús Such & Aguirre, Sandra Zapata, 2008. "The Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Colombia," MPRA Paper 25286, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Mar 2009.
    10. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
    11. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    12. Gardella, Rodrigo & Aguayo, Eva, 2002. "Impacto economico del turismo en el Mercosur y Chile (1990-2000)," Estudios Economicos de Desarrollo Internacional, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(1).
    13. Po, Wan-Chen & Huang, Bwo-Nung, 2008. "Tourism development and economic growth–a nonlinear approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(22), pages 5535-5542.
    14. JG. Brida & M. Pulina, 2010. "A literature review on the tourism-led-growth hypothesis," Working Paper CRENoS 201017, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    15. Juan Luis Eugenio-Martín & Noelia Martín Morales & Riccardo Scarpa, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2004.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arash Ketabforoush Badri & Karim Panahi, 2018. "The Study of Factors Influencing Tourism Demand with Emphasis on the Degree of Openness of the Economy," Noble International Journal of Social Sciences Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 3(10), pages 78-89, October.
    2. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & MANESCHIÖLD, Per-Ola, 2021. "Testing for the Tourism Led Economic Growth Hypothesis in Sweden with Structural Breaks," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(3), pages 293-310.
    3. Rita De Siano & Rosaria Rita Canale, 2024. "The role of tourism in European regions’ economic recovery: A spatial perspective," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(8), pages 2021-2042, December.
    4. José Alberto Fuinhas & Matheus Belucio & Daniela Castilho & Joana Mateus & Rafaela Caetano, 2020. "Tourism and Economic Growth Nexus in Latin America and Caribbean Countries: Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Panel," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 13(1), pages 21-34.
    5. Wanjun Xia & Buhari Doğan & Umer Shahzad & Festus Fatai Adedoyin & Abiodun Popoola & Muhammad Adnan Bashir, 2022. "An empirical investigation of tourism-led growth hypothesis in the European countries: evidence from augmented mean group estimator," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 21(2), pages 239-266, May.
    6. Osinubi Tolulope T. & Ajayi Adedoyin O. & Osinubi Olufemi B. & Olaniyi Clement O., 2021. "A New Intuition into Tourism-Inclusive Growth Nexus in Turkey and Nigeria (1995 – 2018)," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 221-241, June.
    7. José Alberto Fuinhas & Matheus Belucio & Daniela Castilho & Joana Mateus & Rafaela Caetano, 2020. "Tourism and Economic Growth Nexus in Latin America and Caribbean Countries: Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Panel," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 13(1), pages 21-34.
    8. Naqib Ullah Khan & Wajid Alim & Abida Begum & Heesup Han & Abdullah Mohamed, 2022. "Examining Factors That Influence the International Tourism in Pakistan and Its Nexus with Economic Growth: Evidence from ARDL Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-15, August.
    9. Khavari, Saeed Dehghan & Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein & Derakhsh, Saeedeh, 2021. "Dynamics of Tourism and Economic Growth in the Oil-Exporting Economies: A Tri-Variate Causality," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 51(1), pages 73-86.
    10. Naradda Gamage, Sisira Kumara & Kumudumali, S. H. T. & Otamurodov, Shavkat, 2020. "The Nexus between Tourism and Economic Growth: A Systematic Literature Review and Future Research Directions," MPRA Paper 104086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2016. "The Validity of the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis for Thailand," MPRA Paper 72716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Delia Popescu & Iulia Monica Oehler-Sincai & Daniel Bulin & Ion Alexandru Tanase, 2018. "Cee-16: A Cluster Analysis Based on Tourism Competitiveness and Correlations With Major Determinants," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 20(S12), pages 833-833, November.
    13. Dogan, Ergun & Zhang, Xibin, 2023. "A nonparametric panel data model for examining the contribution of tourism to economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    14. Ngozi Helen Oguchi & Fen Luo, 2021. "Estimating the Nexus of Tourism on Sustainable Development Goals in Nigeria," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 20(1), pages 751-771, June.
    15. Zdravko Sergo, 2019. "Inter-Generational Employment Spillovers From Tourism Across The Eu," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 28(1), pages 97-125, june.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan Sebastián & Such, María Jesús & Pulina, Manuela, 2011. "Causalidad entre turismo y crecimiento económico de largo plazo: una revisión crítica de la literatura econométrica [Causality between tourism and long-term economic growth: a critical review of th," MPRA Paper 37332, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    2. Theodore Panagiotidis & Thomas Panagiotou & Maurizio Mussoni, 2012. "Tourism Led Growth: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests," Working Paper series 74_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. Herman Sahni & Christian Nsiah & Bichaka Fayissa, 2021. "The African economic growth experience and tourism receipts: A threshold analysis and quantile regression approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 915-932, August.
    4. Andrew Phiri, 2016. "Tourism and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Cointegration Frameworks," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(1 (Spring), pages 31-53.
    5. Phiri, Andrew, 2019. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from South Africa using Asymmetric Cointegration Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(2), pages 139-170.
    6. Blanka Šimundić & Zvonimir Kuliš & Neven Šerić, 2016. "Tourism and economic growth: an evidence for Latin American and Carribean countries," Tourism and Hospitality Industry 34, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management.
    7. Jorge V Pérez-Rodríguez & Heiko Rachinger & María Santana-Gallego, 2022. "Does tourism promote economic growth? A fractionally integrated heterogeneous panel data analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1355-1376, August.
    8. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Driha, Oana M. & Sinha, Avik, 2020. "The dynamic effects of globalization process in analysing N-shaped tourism led growth hypothesis," MPRA Paper 100078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2007. "Are Nominal Exchange Rates and Price Levels Co‐Integrated? New Evidence from Threshold Autoregressive and Momentum‐Threshold Autoregressive Models," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(260), pages 74-85, March.
    10. Jun Zhang & Li Cheng, 2019. "Threshold Effect of Tourism Development on Economic Growth Following a Disaster Shock: Evidence from the Wenchuan Earthquake, P.R. China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, January.
    11. De Bruyn C & Meyer N & Meyer D.F, 2018. "Assessing the Dynamic Economic Impact of Tourism in a Developing Region in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(5), pages 274-283.
    12. Ngozi Helen Oguchi & Fen Luo, 2021. "Estimating the Nexus of Tourism on Sustainable Development Goals in Nigeria," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 20(1), pages 751-771, June.
    13. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2012. "The impact of the real exchange rate on non-oil exports. Is there an asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium?," MPRA Paper 43728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ceyhun Can OZCAN & Murat ASLAN & Saban NAZLIOGLU, 2017. "Economic freedom, economic growth and international tourism for post-communist (transition) countries: A panel causality analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 75-98, Summer.
    15. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Hsiao, Juei-Ming & Huang, Tsai-Yuan, 2016. "Nonlinear and time-varying growth-tourism causality," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 45-59.
    16. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos, 2004. "The Bundesbank's Inflation Policy and Asymmetric Behavior of the German Term Structure," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 495-508, August.
    17. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2016. "The Validity of the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis for Thailand," MPRA Paper 72716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Stanislav H. Ivanov & Craig Webster, 2013. "Tourism's Contribution to Economic Growth: A Global Analysis for the First Decade of the Millennium," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(3), pages 477-508, June.
    19. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle and the global recession period: Evidence from South Africa using asymmetric cointegration analysis," MPRA Paper 79096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Aistov, Andrey & Nikolaeva, Tatiana, 2019. "Tourism-led growth hypothesis," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 56, pages 5-24.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism led-growth hypothesis; cointegration and thresholds adjustment; M-TAR models; MERCOSUR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.