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Who fears and who welcomes population decline?

Author

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  • Hendrik P. van Dalen

    (Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut (NIDI))

  • Kène Henkens

    (Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut (NIDI))

Abstract

European countries are experiencing population decline and the tacit assumption in most analyses is that the decline may have detrimental welfare effects. In this paper we use a survey among the population in the Netherlands to discover whether population decline is always met with fear. A number of results stand out: population size preferences differ by geographic proximity: at a global level the majority of respondents favors a (global) population decline, but closer to home one supports a stationary population. Population decline is clearly not always met with fear: 31 percent would like the population to decline at the national level and they generally perceive decline to be accompanied by immaterial welfare gains (improvement environment) as well as material welfare losses (tax increases, economic stagnation). In addition to these driving forces it appears that the attitude towards immigrants is a very strong determinant at all geographical levels: immigrants seem to be a stronger fear factor than population decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Hendrik P. van Dalen & Kène Henkens, 2011. "Who fears and who welcomes population decline?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(13), pages 437-464.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:25:y:2011:i:13
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.13
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    Cited by:

    1. Julie Fry, 2014. "Migration and Macroeconomic Performance in New Zealand: Theory and Evidence," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/10, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. Nick Parr, 2023. "An Alternative Perspective on the Changing Relationships between Fertility and Replacement Level in European Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 49(2), pages 255-278, June.
    3. Thomas Dax & Andrew Copus, 2022. "European Rural Demographic Strategies: Foreshadowing Post-Lisbon Rural Development Policy?," World, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-19, November.
    4. Neal Marquez & Xiaoqi Bao & Eileen Kazura & Jessica Lapham & Priya Sarma & Crystal Yu & Christine Leibbrand & Sara Curran, 2024. "An Evaluation of Projection Methods for Detailed Small Area Projections: An Application and Validation to King County, Washington," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-29, April.
    5. Hendrik P. van Dalen & Kène Henkens, 2021. "When is fertility too low or too high? Population policy preferences of demographers around the world," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(2), pages 289-303, May.
    6. Wilson Ruth & Hopkins Jonathan, 2019. "The Changing Shape of Scotland’s Digital Divide," European Countryside, Sciendo, vol. 11(4), pages 563-583, December.
    7. Anna Wichowska, 2021. "Economic Aspects of Shrinking Cities in Poland in the Context of Regional Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-12, March.
    8. Rachel S. Franklin & Eveline S. van Leeuwen, 2018. "For Whom the Bells Toll," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 41(2), pages 134-151, March.
    9. Norma Schemschat, 2021. "Refugee Arrival under Conditions of Urban Decline: From Territorial Stigma and Othering to Collective Place-Making in Diverse Shrinking Cities?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Philip Rees & Nicole Gaag & Joop Beer & Frank Heins, 2012. "European Regional Populations: Current Trends, Future Pathways, and Policy Options [Population des Régions Européennes: Tendances Actuelles, Développements Futurs et Options Politiques]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 28(4), pages 385-416, November.
    11. Kashnitsky, Ilya & de Beer, Joop & van Wissen, Leo, 2017. "Decomposition of regional convergence in population aging across Europe," OSF Preprints ykqbv, Center for Open Science.
    12. Iñigo Calvo-Sotomayor & Ekhi Atutxa & Ricardo Aguado, 2020. "Who Is Afraid of Population Aging? Myths, Challenges and an Open Question from the Civil Economy Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-17, July.
    13. Eveline S. van Leeuwen & Solmaria Halleck Vega & Vera Hogenboom, 2021. "Does population decline lead to a “populist voting mark‐up”? A case study of the Netherlands," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 279-301, April.
    14. Tadeusz Truskolaski & Lukasz Karol Bugowski, 2022. "The Process of Depopulation in Central and Eastern Europe – Determinants and Causes of Population Change between 2008 and 2019," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-21.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population; population policy; immigration; preferences; externalities; population decline;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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