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Decomposition of regional convergence in population aging across Europe

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  • Kashnitsky, Ilya

    (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute)

  • de Beer, Joop
  • van Wissen, Leo

Abstract

ABSTRACT In the face of rapidly aging population, decreasing regional inequalities in population composition is one of the regional cohesion goals of the European Union. To our knowledge, no explicit quantification of the changes in regional population aging differentiation exist. We investigate how regional differences in population aging developed over the last decade and how they are likely to evolve in the coming three decades, and we examine how demographic components of population growth contribute to the process. We use the beta-convergence approach to test whether regions are moving towards a common level of population aging. The change in population composition is decomposed into the separate effects of changes in the size of the non-working-age population and of the working-age population. The latter changes are further decomposed into the effects of cohort turnover, migration at working ages, and mortality at working ages. European Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS)-2 regions experienced notable convergence in population aging during the period 2003–2012 and are expected to experience further convergence in the coming three decades. Convergence in aging mainly depends on changes in the population structure of East-European regions. Cohort turnover plays the major role in promoting convergence. Differences in mortality at working ages, though quite moderate themselves, have a significant cumulative effect. The projections show that when it is assumed that net migration flows at working ages are converging across European regions, this will not contribute to convergence of population aging. The beta-convergence approach proves useful to examine regional variations in population aging across Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Kashnitsky, Ilya & de Beer, Joop & van Wissen, Leo, 2017. "Decomposition of regional convergence in population aging across Europe," OSF Preprints ykqbv, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ykqbv
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ykqbv
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    5. Luca Salvati & Federico Benassi, 2021. "Rise (and Decline) of European Migrants in Greece: Exploring Spatial Determinants of Residential Mobility (1988–2017), with Special Focus on Older Ages," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 599-613, June.
    6. Cristina Borra & Jerònia Pons-Pons & Margarita Vilar-Rodríguez, 2020. "Austerity, healthcare provision, and health outcomes in Spain," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(3), pages 409-423, April.
    7. Ilya Kashnitsky & Joop De Beer & Leo Van Wissen, 2020. "Economic Convergence In Ageing Europe," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 111(1), pages 28-44, February.
    8. Donatella Cangialosi & Debora Tronu & Daniela Vacca, 2023. "The ageing of the population in urban contexts: a study on Italian metropolitan cities," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 77(3), pages 22-32, July-Sept.
    9. Zaiga Krisjane & Maris Berzins & Janis Krumins & Elina Apsite‐Berina & Sindija Balode, 2023. "Uneven geographies: ageing and population dynamics in Latvia," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 893-908, May.
    10. Vytenis Juozas Deimantas & A. Ebru Şanlıtürk & Leo Azzollini & Selin Köksal, 2024. "Population Dynamics and Policies in Europe: Analysis of Population Resilience at the Subnational and National Levels," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-28, April.

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