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Food Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Factors: Evidence from GARCH and GARCH-X Estimates

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  • Apergis, Nicholas
  • Rezitis, Anthony

Abstract

This article examines food price volatility in Greece and how it is affected by short-run deviations between food prices and macroeconomic factors. The methodology follows the GARCH and GARCH-X models. The results show that there exists a positive effect between the deviations and food price volatility. The results are highly important for producers and consumers because higher volatility augments the uncertainty in the food markets. Once the participants receive a signal that the food market is volatile, this might lead them to ask for increased government intervention in the allocation of investment resources and this could reduce overall welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Apergis, Nicholas & Rezitis, Anthony, 2011. "Food Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Factors: Evidence from GARCH and GARCH-X Estimates," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 95-110, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:43:y:2011:i:01:p:95-110_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chambers, Robert G. & Just, Richard E., 1982. "An investigation of the effect of monetary factors on agriculture," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 235-247.
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    5. Alan G. Isaac & David E. Rapach, 1996. "Monetary Shocks and Real Farm Prices: A Re-Examination," Others 9602001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    2. Nigar ZEHRA* & Ambreen FATIMA**, 2019. "FOOD PRICE VOLATILITY: A Comparative Analysis among Major Cities of Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 29(1), pages 71-91.
    3. Behzad FAKARI & Mohammad Mehdi FARSI & Mostafa KOJOURI, 2013. "Determining fluctuations and cycles of corn price in Iran," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 59(8), pages 373-380.
    4. Mourad Zmami & Ousama Ben-Salha, 2019. "Does Oil Price Drive World Food Prices? Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Modeling," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Sukati, Mphumuzi, 2013. "Measuring Maize Price Volatility in Swaziland using ARCH/GARCH approach," MPRA Paper 51840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Shittu, Adebayo & Akerele, Dare & Haile, Mekbib & Edewor, Sarah, 2017. "How Do Trade and Domestic Policy Variables Stand among Influencers of Grain Price Volatility in Nigeria?," Conference papers 332826, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Saravia-Matus, Silvia L. & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio & Mary, Sebastien, 2012. "Economics of Food Security: Selected Issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(01), pages 1-16, April.
    8. Larisa Nicoleta POP & Flavius ROVINARU & Mihaela ROVINARU, 2013. "Assessing The Price Risk On The Romanian Agricultural Market: Analyses And Implications," Interdisciplinary Management Research, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics, Croatia, vol. 9, pages 469-479.
    9. Hassan, Aminu & Ibrahim, Masud Usman & Bala, Ahmed Jinjiri, 2024. "Vulnerability of a developing stock market to openness: One-way return and volatility transmissions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    10. Anthony N. Rezitis & Shaikh Mostak Ahammad, 2016. "Investigating The Interdependency Of Agricultural Production Volatility Spillovers Between Bangladesh, India, And Pakistan," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 32-54, March.
    11. Francq, Christian & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2017. "An equation-by-equation estimator of a multivariate log-GARCH-X model of financial returns," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 16-32.
    12. Jittima Singvejsakul & Yaovarate Chaovanapoonphol & Budsara Limnirankul, 2021. "Modeling the Price Volatility of Cassava Chips in Thailand: Evidence from Bayesian GARCH-X Estimates," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-10, September.
    13. Kris Boudt & Hong Anh Luu, 2022. "Estimation and decomposition of food price inflation risk," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(2), pages 295-319, June.
    14. Shokoohi, Zeinab & Saghaian, Sayed, 2022. "Nexus of energy and food nutrition prices in oil importing and exporting countries: A panel VAR model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    15. Berger, Jurij & Dalheimer, Bernhard & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2021. "Effects of variable EU import levies on corn price volatility," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    16. Ajibade, Toyin Benedict & Ayinde, Opeyemi Eyitayo & Abdoulaye, Tahirou, 2020. "Food Price Volatility in Nigeria and Its Driving Factors: Evidence from Garch Estimates," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 8(4), October.
    17. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Hao, Jianyang & Gao, Xinxin, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil volatility with geopolitical risk: Do time-varying switching probabilities play a role?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    18. Kurmas Akdogan, 2018. "Mean-reversion and structural change in European food prices," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 18(4), pages 163-173.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q19 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Other

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