How Do Trade and Domestic Policy Variables Stand among Influencers of Grain Price Volatility in Nigeria?

Food price volatility has become an issue of great concerns to researchers, policy makers, governments and development workers worldwide, Nigeria inclusive. Against the background of limited, and mixed findings on the nature, and drivers of price volatility in Nigeria (and some other African countries), developing effective policies to calm food price instability remains a speculation. Consequently, this study examined the potential roles of trade and domestic policies, including certain external and local factors on price volatility of specific grains in Nigeria. Time time series data from different secondary sources were used for analysis with a dynamic panel data (fixed effects) model as the main econometrics model. Except for domestic price of imported rice, price volatility in grain markets have not increased markedly in the wake of global food crises. Whereas tariffs and trade openness play insignificant role in explaining volatility in grain markets, political stability, narrow money supply, petrol price, interest and exchange rates, and volatile crude oil price, exerts significant influence, howbeit differently, on price volatility of specific grains. While challenging the idea of volatility increase in general food prices, and the notion that international price upsurge is the dominant drivers of food price volatility in Africa, the findings call for greater attention on domestic factors such as political stability, management of monetary policy, including exchange rates as well as definitive actions to ensure stable petrol price as important pathways to address short and medium-term food price volatility in Nigeria.