Assessing The Price Risk On The Romanian Agricultural Market: Analyses And Implications

In any sector of activity, the uncertainty of price evolution poses challenges to producers, consumers, traders and investors, from private to national level. Moreover, the strategic importance of agricultural sector makes the issue of price volatility in this field an even more important matter both for private and governmental persons. Lately, the global economy struggled with profound turbulences and events that augmented the volatility context on the commodity markets in general and implicitly on those for agricultural ones. The substantial increase of volatility led to major debates regarding what has driven these developments and what new implications emerge from the price risk perspective. Romania, due to its sensitivity to external shocks, experienced in a severe manner the international commodity turmoil but it also has been aff ected by other factors that augmented the internal volatility and risk context. This paper intends to model and analyze the volatility of prices occurred in the recent years on the Romanian market for some agricultural crops. After calculating the econometric models and comparing the estimated conditional variance, the paper will aim at drawing some implications and recommendations from the perspective of price risk exposure.