IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ctl/louvde/v89y2023i2p211-252.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The marriage age U-shape

Author

Listed:
  • Pavel JELNOV

    (Institut for Labor Economics, Leibniz University Hannover,)

Abstract

In this paper, I address the U-shaped dynamics (a decrease followed by an increase) in the age at first marriage during the twentieth century. First, I show that the U-shaped dynamics have been steeper in Western that in other countries. Second, I find that these dynamics in the West are strongly related to the post-World War II (WWII) economic growth. By contrast, in the nineteenth and the first half of the twentieth centuries age of marriage was much less correlated across Western countries. I propose a simple model where age of marriage is a function of search frictions and married women's labor force participation. Both factors put together generate U-shaped dynamics as a result of an industrial boom that mimics the post-WWII Western economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavel JELNOV, 2023. "The marriage age U-shape," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(2), pages 211-252, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:89:y:2023:i:2:p:211-252
    DOI: 10.1017/dem.2021.27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2021.27
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1017/dem.2021.27?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bridgman, Benjamin & Duernecker, Georg & Herrendorf, Berthold, 2018. "Structural transformation, marketization, and household production around the world," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 102-126.
    2. Moro, Alessio & Moslehi, Solmaz & Tanaka, Satoshi, 2017. "Marriage And Economic Development In The Twentieth Century," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(4), pages 379-420, December.
    3. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    4. Nico Voigtl?nder & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2013. "How the West "Invented" Fertility Restriction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2227-2264, October.
    5. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Greulich, Angela & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2018. "Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 461-494.
    6. Wilson, William Julius, 2012. "The Truly Disadvantaged," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 2, number 9780226901268, April.
    7. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2019. "When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage Market Value of Young Men," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 161-178, September.
    8. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    9. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Mehmet Yorukoglu, 2005. "Engines of Liberation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 109-133.
    10. Tine De Moor & Jan Luiten Van Zanden, 2010. "Girl power: the European marriage pattern and labour markets in the North Sea region in the late medieval and early modern period1," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 63(1), pages 1-33, February.
    11. Dorn, David & Autor, David & Hanson, Gordon, 2017. "When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men," CEPR Discussion Papers 11878, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2002. "The Power of the Pill: Oral Contraceptives and Women's Career and Marriage Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 730-770, August.
    13. Coles, M & Francesconi, M, 2013. "Equilibrium Search and the Impact of Equal Opportunities for Women," Economics Discussion Papers 9010, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    14. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst, 2007. "Measuring Trends in Leisure: The Allocation of Time Over Five Decades," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(3), pages 969-1006.
    15. Claudia Goldin, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women's Employment, Education, and Family," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 1-21, May.
    16. Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn & Jane Waldfogel, 2000. "Understanding Young Women's Marriage Decisions: The Role of Labor and Marriage Market Conditions," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 53(4), pages 624-647, July.
    17. Goldin, Claudia, 1992. "Understanding the Gender Gap: An Economic History of American Women," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195072709.
    18. Christine Schwartz & Robert Mare, 2005. "Trends in educational assortative marriage from 1940 to 2003," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(4), pages 621-646, November.
    19. Pavel Jelnov, 2018. "A New Estimator of Search Duration and Its Application to the Marriage Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(6), pages 1089-1116, December.
    20. Gustaf Bruze & Michael Svarer & Yoram Weiss, 2015. "The Dynamics of Marriage and Divorce," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 123-170.
    21. Zhang, Junsen, 1995. "Do men with higher wages marry earlier or later?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 193-196, August.
    22. Jeanne Lafortune & Murat Iyigun, 2016. "Why Wait? A Century of Education, Marriage Timing and Gender Roles," Documentos de Trabajo 468, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    23. Schultz, T. Paul, 1995. "Human Capital and Economic Development," 1994 Conference, August 22-29, 1994, Harare, Zimbabwe 183410, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    24. Michael R. Haines, 1996. "Long Term Marriage Patterns in the United States from Colonial Times tothe Present," NBER Historical Working Papers 0080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Junhong Chu & Haoming Liu & I. P. L. Png, 2018. "Nonlabor Income and Age at Marriage: Evidence From China’s Heating Policy," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2345-2370, December.
    26. Shintaro Yamaguchi, 2018. "Changes in Returns to Task-Specific Skills and Gender Wage Gap," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(1), pages 32-70.
    27. Jessamyn Schaller, 2016. "Booms, Busts, and Fertility: Testing the Becker Model Using Gender-Specific Labor Demand," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(1), pages 1-29.
    28. Goldin, Claudia, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family," Scholarly Articles 2943933, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    29. Edlund, Lena & Machado, Cecilia, 2009. "Marriage and Emancipation in The Age of The Pill," CEPR Discussion Papers 7485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Casey B. Mulligan & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Selection, Investment, and Women's Relative Wages Over Time," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 1061-1110.
    31. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1979_34n2_0442 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stephan E. Maurer & Andrei V. Potlogea, 2021. "Male‐biased Demand Shocks and Women's Labour Force Participation: Evidence from Large Oil Field Discoveries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 167-188, January.
    2. Iyigun, Murat & Lafortune, Jeanne, 2016. "Why Wait? A Century of Education, Marriage Timing and Gender Roles," IZA Discussion Papers 9671, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Stimpfle, Alexander & Stadelmann, David, 2016. "Marriage Age Affects Educational Gender Inequality: International Evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145492, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Junhong Chu & Haoming Liu & I. P. L. Png, 2018. "Nonlabor Income and Age at Marriage: Evidence From China’s Heating Policy," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2345-2370, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2017. "Family Economics Writ Large," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1346-1434, December.
    2. Hanzhe Zhang, 2021. "An Investment-and-Marriage Model with Differential Fecundity: On the College Gender Gap," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1464-1486.
    3. Pavel Jelnov, 2019. "What Remains After the Oil Boom Is Over?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1327-1335.
    4. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2017. "Family Economics Writ Large," Working Papers wp2018_1706, CEMFI.
    5. Keller, Elisa, 2019. "Labor supply and gender differences in occupational choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 221-241.
    6. Stephan E. Maurer & Andrei V. Potlogea, 2021. "Male‐biased Demand Shocks and Women's Labour Force Participation: Evidence from Large Oil Field Discoveries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 167-188, January.
    7. L. Rachel Ngai & Barbara Petrongolo, 2017. "Gender Gaps and the Rise of the Service Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1-44, October.
    8. Mancini, Giulia, 2019. "The determinants of female labor supply in Italy, 1881-2018," MPRA Paper 102165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Tushar Bharati & Yiwei Qian & Jeonghwan Yun, 2020. "Fueling the Engines of Liberation with Cleaner Cooking Fuel," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 20-03, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    10. Akbulut, Rahşan, 2011. "Sectoral Changes And The Increase In Women'S Labor Force Participation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 240-264, April.
    11. Popov, Alexander & Zaharia, Sonia, 2017. "Credit market competition and the gender gap: evidence from local labor markets," Working Paper Series 2086, European Central Bank.
    12. Maria Stanfors & Frances Goldscheider, 2017. "The forest and the trees: Industrialization, demographic change, and the ongoing gender revolution in Sweden and the United States, 1870-2010," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(6), pages 173-226.
    13. Stefania Albanesi & Claudia Olivetti, 2006. "Gender roles and technological progress," 2006 Meeting Papers 411, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Meltem Daysal, N. & Orsini, C., 2012. "The Miracle Drug : Hormone Replacement Therapy and Labor Market Behavior of Middle-Aged Women," Discussion Paper 2012-026, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    15. Bozzano, Monica, 2017. "On the historical roots of women's empowerment across Italian provinces: religion or family culture?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 24-46.
    16. Adam Isen & Betsey Stevenson, 2010. "Women's Education and Family Behavior: Trends in Marriage, Divorce and Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 107-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Bellou, Andriana & Cardia, Emanuela, 2021. "The Great Depression and the rise of female employment: A new hypothesis," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Krenz, Astrid & Strulik, Holger, 2022. "Automation and the fall and rise of the servant economy," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 431, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    19. Giovanni Razzu & Carl Singleton & Mark Mitchell, 2020. "On why the gender employment gap in Britain has stalled since the early 1990s," Industrial Relations Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 476-501, November.
    20. Machado, Matilde & Carro, Jesus & Mora, Ricardo, 2014. "Transmission of preferences and beliefs about female labor market participation: direct evidence on the role of mothers," CEPR Discussion Papers 10218, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Age of marriage; Economic Development; Twentieth century demography;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • N32 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:89:y:2023:i:2:p:211-252. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sebastien SCHILLINGS (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iruclbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.