IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ctl/louvde/v85y2019i3p231-269.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Human Capital of EU Member Countries Accounting for Sociocultural Determinants

Author

Listed:
  • Guillaume MAROIS

    (World Poupulation Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Patrick SABOURIN

    (World Poupulation Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Alain BÉLANGER

    (Centre Urbanisation Culture Société, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Inclusion of additional dimensions to population projections can lead to an improvement in the overall quality of the projections and to an enhanced analytical potential of derived projections such as literacy skills and labor force participation. This paper describes the modeling of educational attainment of a microsimulation projection model of the European Union countries. Using ordered logistic regressions on five waves of the European Social Survey, we estimate the impact of mother's education and other sociocultural characteristics on educational attainment and implement them into the microsimulation model. Results of the different projection scenarios are contrasted to understand how the education of the mother and sociocultural variables may affect projection outcomes. We show that a change in the impact of mother's education on children's educational attainment may have a big effect on future trends. Moreover, the proposed approach yields more consistent population projection outputs for specific subpopulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume MAROIS & Patrick SABOURIN & Alain BÉLANGER, 2019. "Forecasting Human Capital of EU Member Countries Accounting for Sociocultural Determinants," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 231-269, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:85:y:2019:i:3:p:231-269
    DOI: 10.1017/dem.2019.4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2019.4
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1017/dem.2019.4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Raymer & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski & Jonathan J. Forster & Peter W. F. Smith & Jakub Bijak, 2013. "Integrated Modeling of European Migration," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(503), pages 801-819, September.
    2. Lutz, Wolfgang & Butz, William P. & KC, Samir (ed.), 2014. "World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198703167.
    3. Regina T. Riphahn, 2003. "Cohort effects in the educational attainment of second generation immigrants in Germany: An analysis of census data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 711-737, November.
    4. Ira N. Gang & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2000. "Is Child like Parent? Educational Attainment and Ethnic Origin," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(3), pages 550-569.
    5. Sandra E. Black & Paul J. Devereux & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2005. "Why the Apple Doesn't Fall Far: Understanding Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 437-449, March.
    6. Hertz Tom & Jayasundera Tamara & Piraino Patrizio & Selcuk Sibel & Smith Nicole & Verashchagina Alina, 2008. "The Inheritance of Educational Inequality: International Comparisons and Fifty-Year Trends," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-48, January.
    7. Vegard Skirbekk, 2008. "Fertility trends by social status," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 18(5), pages 145-180.
    8. David Coleman, 2006. "Immigration and Ethnic Change in Low‐Fertility Countries: A Third Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(3), pages 401-446, September.
    9. Martin Kahanec & Anzelika Zaiceva, 2009. "Labor market outcomes of immigrants and non‐citizens in the EU," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(1/2), pages 97-115, March.
    10. Elke Loichinger, 2015. "Labor force projections up to 2053 for 26 EU countries, by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(15), pages 443-486.
    11. Elke Loichinger & Alexia Prskawetz, 2017. "Changes in economic activity: The role of age and education," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(40), pages 1185-1208.
    12. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1998_10n1_0136 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Patrick Sabourin & Alain Bélanger & Paul Reeve, 2015. "The Dynamics of Language Shift in Canada," Population (english edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 0(4), pages 727-757.
    14. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson, 2014. "Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 299-315, February.
    15. Wolfgang Lutz, 2010. "Education will be at the heart of 21st century demography," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 8(1), pages 9-16.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michaela Potančoková & Guillaume Marois, 2020. "Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women’s educational and migrant characteristics," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 141-166.
    2. René Böheim & Thomas Horvath & Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer, 2023. "The Impact of Health and Education on Labor Force Participation in Aging Societies: Projections for the United States and Germany from Dynamic Microsimulations," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-35, June.
    3. Michael Christl & Alain Bélanger & Alessandra Conte & Jacopo Mazza & Edlira Narazani, 2022. "Projecting the fiscal impact of immigration in the European Union," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 365-385, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guillaume Marois & Patrick Sabourin & Alain Bélanger, 2020. "Implementing Dynamics of Immigration Integration in Labor Force Participation Projection in EU28," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 339-363, April.
    2. Michaela Potančoková & Guillaume Marois, 2020. "Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women’s educational and migrant characteristics," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 141-166.
    3. Firat Yaman, 2014. "Ethnic externalities in education and second-generation immigrants," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(34), pages 4205-4217, December.
    4. Yaman, F., 2011. "Ethnic externalities and 2nd generation immigrants," Working Papers 11/08, Department of Economics, City University London.
    5. Rajarshi Majumder, 2010. "Intergenerational Mobility in Educational and Occupational Attainment," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(4), pages 463-494, November.
    6. Abdurrahman Aydemir & Wen-Hao Chen & Miles Corak, 2013. "Intergenerational Education Mobility among the Children of Canadian Immigrants," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 39(s1), pages 107-122, May.
    7. Rocha de Jesus Fernandes, Anderson & Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo, 2024. "Aging, education and some other implications for the silver dividend in developing countries: Evidence from Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    8. Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel & Belgi Turan, 2013. "Left behind: intergenerational transmission of human capital in the midst of HIV/AIDS," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1523-1547, October.
    9. Abdurrahman Aydemir & Wen-Hao Chen & Miles Corak, 2013. "Intergenerational Education Mobility among the Children of Canadian Immigrants," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 39(s1), pages 107-122, May.
    10. Siahaan, Freddy & Lee, Daniel Y. & Kalist, David E., 2014. "Educational attainment of children of immigrants: Evidence from the national longitudinal survey of youth," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-8.
    11. Niknami, Susan, 2010. "Intergenerational Transmission of Education among Immigrant Mothers and their Daughters in Sweden," SULCIS Working Papers 2010:10, Stockholm University, Linnaeus Center for Integration Studies - SULCIS.
    12. Alexia Prskawetz & Bernhard Hammer, 2018. "Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 111-134.
    13. Anna Christina D'Addio, 2007. "Intergenerational Transmission of Disadvantage: Mobility or Immobility Across Generations?," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 52, OECD Publishing.
    14. Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo & Lobo Alves Ferreira, Matheus, 2021. "The evolution of labor force participation and the expected length of retirement in Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    15. Meng, Xin & Zhao, Guochang, 2021. "The long shadow of a large scale education interruption: The intergenerational effect," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    16. Amin, Vikesh & Lundborg, Petter & Rooth, Dan-Olof, 2015. "The intergenerational transmission of schooling: Are mothers really less important than fathers?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 100-117.
    17. Annabelle Krause & Ulf Rinne & Simone Schüller, 2015. "Kick It Like Özil? Decomposing the Native-Migrant Education Gap," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 757-789, September.
    18. Checchi, Daniele & Fiorio, Carlo V. & Leonardi, Marco, 2013. "Intergenerational persistence of educational attainment in Italy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 229-232.
    19. Amelie F. Constant & Annabelle Krause & Ulf Rinne & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2017. "Reservation wages of first- and second-generation migrants," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(13), pages 945-949, July.
    20. Dominique Meurs & Patrick A. Puhani & Friederike Von Haaren-Giebel, 2017. "Number of siblings and educational choices of immigrant children: evidence from first- and second-generation immigrants," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1158, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Projection; Education; European Union; Europe; Microsimulation; Sociocultural; Human Capital; Population;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:85:y:2019:i:3:p:231-269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sebastien SCHILLINGS (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iruclbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.