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Integrated Modeling of European Migration

Author

Listed:
  • James Raymer
  • Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
  • Jonathan J. Forster
  • Peter W. F. Smith
  • Jakub Bijak

Abstract

International migration data in Europe are collected by individual countries with separate collection systems and designs. As a result, reported data are inconsistent in availability, definition, and quality. In this article, we propose a Bayesian model to overcome the limitations of the various data sources. The focus is on estimating recent international migration flows among 31 countries in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, using data collated by Eurostat. We also incorporate covariate information and information provided by experts on the effects of undercount, measurement, and accuracy of data collection systems. The methodology is integrated and produces a synthetic database with measures of uncertainty for international migration flows and other model parameters. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Suggested Citation

  • James Raymer & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski & Jonathan J. Forster & Peter W. F. Smith & Jakub Bijak, 2013. "Integrated Modeling of European Migration," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(503), pages 801-819, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlasa:v:108:y:2013:i:503:p:801-819
    DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2013.789435
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2006. "Notes on CEPII’s distances measures," MPRA Paper 26469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4373.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreea Avramescu & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2021. "Now-casting Romanian migration into the United Kingdom by using Google Search engine data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(40), pages 1219-1254.
    2. John Bryant & Jongjit Rittirong & Wichai Aekplakorn & Ladda Mo-suwan & Pimolpan Nitnara, 2022. "A Bayesian approach to combining multiple information sources: Estimating and forecasting childhood obesity in Thailand," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-21, January.
    3. Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana, 2023. "Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 73-97.
    4. Willekens Frans, 2019. "Evidence-Based Monitoring of International Migration Flows in Europe," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 35(1), pages 231-277, March.
    5. Michaela Potančoková & Guillaume Marois, 2020. "Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women’s educational and migrant characteristics," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 141-166.
    6. Arkadiusz Wiśniowski & Jonathan J. Forster & Peter W. F. Smith & Jakub Bijak & James Raymer, 2016. "Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(4), pages 1007-1024, October.
    7. Guy Abel & Jakub Bijak & Jonathan J. Forster & James Raymer & Peter W.F. Smith & Jackie S.T. Wong, 2013. "Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(43), pages 1187-1226.
    8. Justin Longo & Alan Rodney Dobell, 2018. "The Limits of Policy Analytics: Early Examples and the Emerging Boundary of Possibilities," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(4), pages 5-17.
    9. Jack DeWaard & Jasmine Trang Ha & James Raymer & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2017. "Migration from New-Accession Countries and Duration Expectancy in the EU-15: 2002–2008," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 33-53, February.
    10. Daniela Perrotta & Sarah C. Johnson & Tom Theile & André Grow & Helga A. G. de Valk & Emilio Zagheni, 2022. "Openness to migrate internationally for a job: evidence from LinkedIn data in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    11. Jack DeWaard & Janna Johnson & Stephan D. Whitaker, 2019. "Internal Migration in the United States: A Comprehensive Comparative Assessment of the Consumer Credit Panel," Working Papers 18-04R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    12. James Raymer & Xujing Bai & Nan Liu, 2020. "The dynamic complexity of Australia’s immigration and emigration flows from 1981 to 2016," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 213-242, September.
    13. Guillaume Marois & Patrick Sabourin & Alain Bélanger, 2020. "Implementing Dynamics of Immigration Integration in Labor Force Participation Projection in EU28," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 339-363, April.
    14. Katherine Curtis & Elizabeth Fussell & Jack DeWaard, 2015. "Recovery Migration After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Spatial Concentration and Intensification in the Migration System," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(4), pages 1269-1293, August.
    15. Cate Arie ten, 2014. "The Identification of Reporting Accuracies from Mirror Data," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 234(1), pages 70-84, February.
    16. Guillaume MAROIS & Patrick SABOURIN & Alain BÉLANGER, 2019. "Forecasting Human Capital of EU Member Countries Accounting for Sociocultural Determinants," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 231-269, September.
    17. Paul Clist & Gabriele Restelli, 2021. "Development aid and international migration to Italy: Does aid reduce irregular flows?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 1281-1311, May.
    18. Albano Rikani & Jacob Schewe, 2021. "Global bilateral migration projections accounting for diasporas, transit and return flows, and poverty constraints," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(4), pages 87-140.
    19. Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2017. "Combining Labour Force Survey data to estimate migration flows: the case of migration from Poland to the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(1), pages 185-202, January.
    20. Xiaoyue Xi & Simon E. F. Spencer & Matthew Hall & M. Kate Grabowski & Joseph Kagaayi & Oliver Ratmann & Rakai Health Sciences Program and PANGEA‐HIV, 2022. "Inferring the sources of HIV infection in Africa from deep‐sequence data with semi‐parametric Bayesian Poisson flow models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(3), pages 517-540, June.
    21. Guy J. Abel, 2015. "Estimates of Global Bilateral Migration Flows by Gender Between 1960 and 2010," VID Working Papers 1505, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    22. Berlemann, Michael & Haustein, Erik & Steinhardt, Max F., 2021. "From Stocks to Flows – Evidence for the Climate-Migration-Nexus," IZA Discussion Papers 14450, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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