IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jnlasa/v108y2013i503p801-819.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrated Modeling of European Migration

Author

Listed:
  • James Raymer
  • Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
  • Jonathan J. Forster
  • Peter W. F. Smith
  • Jakub Bijak

Abstract

International migration data in Europe are collected by individual countries with separate collection systems and designs. As a result, reported data are inconsistent in availability, definition, and quality. In this article, we propose a Bayesian model to overcome the limitations of the various data sources. The focus is on estimating recent international migration flows among 31 countries in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, using data collated by Eurostat. We also incorporate covariate information and information provided by experts on the effects of undercount, measurement, and accuracy of data collection systems. The methodology is integrated and produces a synthetic database with measures of uncertainty for international migration flows and other model parameters. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Suggested Citation

  • James Raymer & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski & Jonathan J. Forster & Peter W. F. Smith & Jakub Bijak, 2013. "Integrated Modeling of European Migration," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(503), pages 801-819, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlasa:v:108:y:2013:i:503:p:801-819
    DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2013.789435
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/01621459.2013.789435
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/01621459.2013.789435?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2006. "Notes on CEPII’s distances measures," MPRA Paper 26469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4373.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arkadiusz Wiśniowski & Jonathan J. Forster & Peter W. F. Smith & Jakub Bijak & James Raymer, 2016. "Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(4), pages 1007-1024, October.
    2. Justin Longo & Alan Rodney Dobell, 2018. "The Limits of Policy Analytics: Early Examples and the Emerging Boundary of Possibilities," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(4), pages 5-17.
    3. Paul Clist & Gabriele Restelli, 2021. "Development aid and international migration to Italy: Does aid reduce irregular flows?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 1281-1311, May.
    4. Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2017. "Combining Labour Force Survey data to estimate migration flows: the case of migration from Poland to the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(1), pages 185-202, January.
    5. Xiaoyue Xi & Simon E. F. Spencer & Matthew Hall & M. Kate Grabowski & Joseph Kagaayi & Oliver Ratmann & Rakai Health Sciences Program and PANGEA‐HIV, 2022. "Inferring the sources of HIV infection in Africa from deep‐sequence data with semi‐parametric Bayesian Poisson flow models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(3), pages 517-540, June.
    6. Guy J. Abel, 2015. "Estimates of Global Bilateral Migration Flows by Gender Between 1960 and 2010," VID Working Papers 1505, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    7. Jack DeWaard & Janna Johnson & Stephan Whitaker, 2019. "Internal migration in the United States: A comprehensive comparative assessment of the Consumer Credit Panel," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(33), pages 953-1006.
    8. James Raymer & Xujing Bai & Nan Liu, 2020. "The dynamic complexity of Australia’s immigration and emigration flows from 1981 to 2016," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 213-242, September.
    9. Andreea Avramescu & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2021. "Now-casting Romanian migration into the United Kingdom by using Google Search engine data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(40), pages 1219-1254.
    10. Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana, 2023. "Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 73-97.
    11. Willekens Frans, 2019. "Evidence-Based Monitoring of International Migration Flows in Europe," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 35(1), pages 231-277, March.
    12. Michaela Potančoková & Guillaume Marois, 2020. "Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women’s educational and migrant characteristics," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 141-166.
    13. Guillaume Marois & Patrick Sabourin & Alain Bélanger, 2020. "Implementing Dynamics of Immigration Integration in Labor Force Participation Projection in EU28," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 339-363, April.
    14. John Bryant & Jongjit Rittirong & Wichai Aekplakorn & Ladda Mo-suwan & Pimolpan Nitnara, 2022. "A Bayesian approach to combining multiple information sources: Estimating and forecasting childhood obesity in Thailand," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-21, January.
    15. Guy Abel & Jakub Bijak & Jonathan J. Forster & James Raymer & Peter W.F. Smith & Jackie S.T. Wong, 2013. "Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(43), pages 1187-1226.
    16. Jack DeWaard & Jasmine Trang Ha & James Raymer & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2017. "Migration from New-Accession Countries and Duration Expectancy in the EU-15: 2002–2008," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 33-53, February.
    17. Daniela Perrotta & Sarah C. Johnson & Tom Theile & André Grow & Helga A. G. de Valk & Emilio Zagheni, 2022. "Openness to migrate internationally for a job: evidence from LinkedIn data in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    18. Katherine Curtis & Elizabeth Fussell & Jack DeWaard, 2015. "Recovery Migration After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Spatial Concentration and Intensification in the Migration System," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(4), pages 1269-1293, August.
    19. Cate Arie ten, 2014. "The Identification of Reporting Accuracies from Mirror Data," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 234(1), pages 70-84, February.
    20. Guillaume MAROIS & Patrick SABOURIN & Alain BÉLANGER, 2019. "Forecasting Human Capital of EU Member Countries Accounting for Sociocultural Determinants," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 231-269, September.
    21. Albano Rikani & Jacob Schewe, 2021. "Global bilateral migration projections accounting for diasporas, transit and return flows, and poverty constraints," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(4), pages 87-140.
    22. Berlemann, Michael & Haustein, Erik & Steinhardt, Max F., 2021. "From Stocks to Flows – Evidence for the Climate-Migration-Nexus," IZA Discussion Papers 14450, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bahar, Dany & Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar A., 2014. "Neighbors and the evolution of the comparative advantage of nations: Evidence of international knowledge diffusion?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 111-123.
    2. Bahar, Dany & Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar A., 2012. "International Knowledge Diffusion and the Comparative Advantage of Nations," Working Paper Series rwp12-020, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Asuyama, Yoko, 2012. "Skill Distribution and Comparative Advantage: A Comparison of China and India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 956-969.
    4. Das Gupta, Monica & Bongaarts, John & Cleland, John, 2011. "Population, poverty, and sustainable development : a review of the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5719, The World Bank.
    5. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda, 2012. "Targeted Subsidies and Private Market Participation: An Assessment of Fertilizer Demand in Nigeria:," IFPRI discussion papers 1194, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Löschel, Andreas & Pothen, Frank & Schymura, Michael, 2015. "Peeling the onion: Analyzing aggregate, national and sectoral energy intensity in the European Union," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(S1), pages 63-75.
    7. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis and Development: Whither Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-124, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Jeni Klugman & Francisco Rodríguez & Hyung-Jin Choi, 2011. "The HDI 2010: new controversies, old critiques," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(2), pages 249-288, June.
    9. Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Langlotz, Sarah, 2019. "The effects of foreign aid on refugee flows," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 127-147.
    10. Markus Brueckner & Ngo Van Long & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2020. "Non-Gravity Trade," Globalization Institute Working Papers 388, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    11. Maertens, Miet & Verhofstadt, Ellen, 2013. "Horticultural exports, female wage employment and primary school enrolment: Theory and evidence from Senegal," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 118-131.
    12. Hatzigeorgiou, Andreas & Lodefalk, Magnus, 2011. "Trade and Migration: Firm-Level Evidence (LONG VERSION)," Working Papers 2011:6, Örebro University, School of Business.
    13. Frensch, Richard & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Rindler, Michael, 2023. "Topography, borders, and trade across Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 816-832.
    14. Rabah Arezki & Markus Brückner, 2011. "Food prices and political instability," NCID Working Papers 01/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    15. Garfield O. Blake, 2015. "Using Increases in Criminal Deportees from the US to Estimate the Effect of Crime on Economic Growth and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean," Laws, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-18, November.
    16. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela, 2018. "Effects of Islamic religiosity on bilateral trust in trade: The case of Turkish exports," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 947-965.
    17. Aleksynska, Mariya & Tritah, Ahmed, 2013. "Occupation–education mismatch of immigrant workers in Europe: Context and policies," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 229-244.
    18. Wang, Daojuan & Hain, Daniel S. & Larimo, Jorma & Dao, Li T., 2020. "Cultural differences and synergy realization in cross-border acquisitions," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(3).
    19. Cohen, Joseph N, 2010. "Neoliberalism’s relationship with economic growth in the developing world: Was it the power of the market or the resolution of financial crisis?," MPRA Paper 24527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Seitz, Michael & Tarasov, Alexander & Zakharenko, Roman, 2015. "Trade costs, conflicts, and defense spending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 305-318.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jnlasa:v:108:y:2013:i:503:p:801-819. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/UASA20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.