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Pronósticos para una economía menos volátil: el caso colombiano

Author

Listed:
  • Santiago Cajiao Raigosa
  • Luis Fernando Melo Velandia
  • Daniel Parra Amado

Abstract

Este trabajo evalúa si las transformaciones de potencia (Box-Cox y en particular logarítmica) de series de tiempo mejoran la precisión de los pronósticos de modelos ARIMA ajustados a variables económicas de Colombia en dos periodos diferentes: 1980-1995 y 2002-2012. Se compara la habilidad predictiva de series en nivel y series transformadas a través de un experimento fuera de muestra mediante el uso de la prueba de habilidad predictiva incondicional de Giacomini y White (2006). Se encuentra que los pronósticos de las series transformadas, en general, se desempenan mejor para el periodo 1980-1995, cuando la economía colombiana fue relativamente más volátil que durante el periodo 2002-2012. Para este último tramo de la muestra, los resultados son mixtos y para algunas series se sugiere mantenerlas en niveles; es decir, sin utilizar transformaciones de potencia.

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Cajiao Raigosa & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Daniel Parra Amado, 2014. "Pronósticos para una economía menos volátil: el caso colombiano," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:012756
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    1. Santiago Cajiao Raigosa & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Daniel Parra Amado, 2014. "Pronósticos para una economía menos volátil: el caso colombiano," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
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    1. Santiago Cajiao Raigosa & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Daniel Parra Amado, 2014. "Pronósticos para una economía menos volátil: el caso colombiano," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    2. Davinson Stev Abril Salcedo & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Daniel Parra Amado, 2015. "Heterogeneidad de los Índices de Producción Sectoriales de la Industria Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 12973, Banco de la Republica.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transformación de Potencia; Transformación Logarítmica; Evaluación de Pronósticos;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

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