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Forecasting Annual Inflation with Seasonal Monthly Data: Using Levels versus Logs of the Underlying Price Index

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  • Luetkepohl Helmut

    (European University Institute)

  • Xu Fang

    (European University Institute and Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel)

Abstract

This paper investigates whether using natural logarithms (logs) of price indices for forecasting inflation rates is preferable to employing the original series. Univariate forecasts for annual inflation rates for a number of European countries and the USA based on monthly seasonal consumer price indices are considered. Stochastic seasonality and deterministic seasonality models are used. In many cases, the forecasts based on the original variables result in substantially smaller root mean squared errors than models based on logs. In turn, if forecasts based on logs are superior, the gains are typically small. This outcome sheds doubt on the common practice in the academic literature to forecast inflation rates based on differences of logs.

Suggested Citation

  • Luetkepohl Helmut & Xu Fang, 2011. "Forecasting Annual Inflation with Seasonal Monthly Data: Using Levels versus Logs of the Underlying Price Index," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jtsmet:v:3:y:2011:i:1:n:7
    DOI: 10.2202/1941-1928.1094
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Hector Manuel Zárate Solano & Angélica Rengifo Gómez, 2013. "Forecasting annual inflation with power transformations: the case of inflation targeting countries," Borradores de Economia 756, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Mayr, Johannes & Ulbricht, Dirk, 2015. "Log versus level in VAR forecasting: 42 million empirical answers—Expect the unexpected," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 40-42.
    4. Santiago Cajiao Raigosa & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Daniel Parra Amado, 2014. "Pronósticos para una economía menos volátil: el caso colombiano," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    5. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Camille Logeay, 2019. "Short-Term macroeconomic evaluation of the German minimum wage with a VAR/VECM," IMK Working Paper 197-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Angeliki Papana & Catherine Kyrtsou & Dimitris Kugiumtzis & Cees Diks, 2023. "Identification of causal relationships in non-stationary time series with an information measure: Evidence for simulated and financial data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1399-1420, March.
    7. Josef Arlt, 2023. "The problem of annual inflation rate indicator," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2772-2788, July.

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